Lost Pines to consider possible action on Forestar
settlement agreement at Board Meeting.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015, 6:00 p.m.
Bastrop City Hall, 1311 Chestnut Street, Bastrop, TX.
    
BE THERE ... as the FACE of LANDOWNERS & PUBLIC.  
 
The Lost Pines GCD Board of Directors will consider and possibly take action on a Settlement Agreement with Forestar (USA) Real Estate Group, Inc. at its meeting this Wednesday, December 9, at 6:00 p.m. at Bastrop City Hall. The public will not be allowed to make oral comments at the meeting.   Public comments may be submitted in person at the District's office or by email to comment@lostpineswater.org before 5:00 pm on Monday, December 7, 2015. (see agenda).    
 
According to documents provided on the Lost Pines GCD website, the settlement would grant Forestar a permit that can ramp-up to 28,500 ac-ft/year over a six year period (Special Conditions 3-5 of Operating Permit). A complex set of calculations, based on monitoring well data and estimated yearly desired future conditions (DFC) will be used to determine whether or not Forestar is allowed to increase pumping from an initial 12,000 ac-ft/yr, to 20,000 ac-ft/yr after three years, and to 28,500 ac-ft/yr after another three year period. A Transport Permit would allow export of groundwater outside the District for as much as thirty (30) years (Terms of Transport Permit). The term of the Operating Permit is five (5) years and is subject to Special Condition (8) whereby Forestar must have a binding contract(s) to provide 12,000 ac-ft/yr to End Users within five (5) years from issuance of the Permit. Place of use must be in Bastrop, Hays, Lee, Travis and Williamson counties (see Operating Permit).
 
Forestar will install six new monitoring wells as a condition of the settlement as detailed in the Monitoring Well Agreement. These wells, as part of the District's Monitoring Well System, will be used in making calculated estimates on which the decisions regarding increased pumping will be made. Notably, as currently drafted, Forestar will also have veto power, without reason or opportunity for mediation, that would prohibit the District from adding specific monitoring wells to which Forestar objects (other new monitoring wells) to the District's Monitoring Well System at any time in the future (Article 1, Section 2 of the Monitoring Agreement). Environmental Stewardship is very concerned that this provision of the Monitoring Agreement would influence the data used to make decisions on increased pumping, like gerrymandering is used to influence votes. ES is working to have dispute resolution and other clarifications added to Section 2.
 
The District's approach to managing large volume applications is a notable departure from past practices and has considerable merit.  ES applauds the District for its forward thinking and courageous approach to resolving the difficult issues it faces.  However, as argued in our comments on the  End Op settlement agreement -- which seems to be the template for the Forestar settlement -- ES is concerned that the calculations and the methods used to make the necessary determinations have not been adequately tested to ensure that they are reliable for use in making such important decisions.   As such, ES will request that the District conduct, if they have not already done so, such simulations as would be required to test the calculations and decision process to ensure that the calculations and the use of the model are adequately accurate to make a determination to allow increased pumping some 40+ years prior to the 2070 target date for the desired future conditions.

ES will also request that a presentation on the simulations be provided to the Board in public session with unfettered public participation.  
Simply said, since the model being used was not created for this purpose and the accuracy of the model in predicting future drawdowns is unknown, the District needs to demonstrate to the public and elected officials that it has done its due diligence in developing these calculations and decision conditions BEFORE the settlement agreement is brought to the Board for a vote.
 
Unfortunately, as with the End Op Board Meeting, the public is not being allowed to make comments in a public forum with the Board members present.   As such, there are no assurances that written comments to the Board will be read and understood, much less considered by the Board prior to voting, which could occur as early as the December 9 special meeting. ES is very concerned that the public's interests are being ignored or limited, while only the behind-closed-door demands and negotiations of Forestar are being considered. ES, along with other interest groups, will be calling for a more open and transparent process. We will urge the District to extend the time period for public comments so that adequate analysis of the settlement agreement can be made and reported for the Board's consideration. The public and local elected officials should have adequate opportunity to understand and comment on the settlement since it has such important impacts on our communities. Certainly the Board should have adequate time, after comments are received, to hear and consider the public's concerns.  
     
Steve Box
Executive Director
Environmental Stewardship
P.O. Box 1423
Bastrop, TX 78602   
512-300-6609    
                                                                            

   
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GROUNDWATER BULLETIN    

Lost Pines Groundwater Conservation District Hearings
DrawdownWATER BANKRUPTCY:  A Visual Perspective
PERMIT THIS NOT BANKRUPTCY
PRINT FLYER
What does "draw-down" and "water bankruptcy" resulting from groundwater pumping look like on a groundwater map?  As you may know, the Desired Future Conditions are established in terms of the draw-down, in feet, of aquifers in Bastrop and Lee counties and throughout the District. 

Recently, Environmental Stewardship obtained visual images based on the Groundwater Availability Model (GAM) used by the Lost Pines Groundwater Conservation District to evaluate the impact of proposed pumping from current permit applications on the Simsboro Aquifer.  Draw-down, measured in feet, is indicated on the contour lines of the maps below.  Click on Maps below to Enlarge

NOTICE:  Please keep in mind that the images below (except for Image 1) are for the PROPOSED permits ONLY (124,226 acre-feet/year) and DO NOT include EXISTING permits (45,365 acre-feet/year). 

GMA-DFC-Drawdown
Image 1.  PERMIT THIS - The draw-down, in feet, expected when the Adopted Desired Future Conditions (DFC) are met in Bastrop and Lee counties. The dark area in Burleson County is from Post Oak Savannah GCD pumping.  The Lost Pines GCD Board of Directors used the legal constraints of the adopted DFC to limit the Forestar permit.  Click on Map to Enlarge

AllPermits100%Drawdown
Image 2.  NOT WATER BANKRUPTCY - The draw-down map above, expressed in feet, demonstrates what is expected if ALL current applications are approved and pumped to the maximum requested. The Forestar permit has been reduced from 45,000 to 12,000 acre-feet per year.  However,  Forestar is expected to appeal to District Court in an attempt to overturn this Board decision.  Notice the red area in Lee county where draw-down is 1000 ft, and orange area in Bastrop County where draw-down is 750 ft.  Click on Map to Enlarge

Forestar100%
 Image 3.  WATER BANKRUPTCY - The majority of draw-down, in feet, in Lee County is from the proposed Forestar well field.  Fortunately, the Forestar permit has been reduced from 45,000 to 12,000 acre-feet per year.  However,  Forestar is expected to appeal to District Court in an attempt to overturn this Board decision. Click on Map to Enlarge

EndOp100%
Image 4.  WATER BANKRUPTCY - The majority of draw-down, in feet, in Bastrop County is from the proposed End Op well field, which is directly below Houston Toad habitat.  The End OP application has been contested by Aqua Water Supply Corporation and a hearing on the merits is being scheduled.  Click on Map to Enlarge


PERMIT THIS: 
If permitted at all, individual permits should first be reduced to levels actually supported by the application and then all permits reduced overall as necessary to an aggregate level that, including existing permits, protects the Adopted Desired Future Conditions.  In summary, if permitted at all, Forestar and End Op qualify for less than 5% of the water they are seeking.  In addition, the district needs to factor in the impact of existing permits before issuing any new permits. This has not been done. (See Image 1). 


Forestar25%
Image 5. Permit This!  This image depicts Forestar pumping reduced to 25% of requested pumping volume but DOES NOT include existing permits. The Board reduced Forestar's permit to 26% of the requested amount.  Click on Map to Enlarge


EndOp25%
Image 6.  Permit This! This image depicts End Op pumping reduced to 25% of requested pumping volume but DOES NOT include existing permits.  Click on Map to Enlarge

Lost Pines Groundwater Statistics
Region K
 
Below are some statistics about current applications, existing permits and facts from the Lost Pines Management Plan. 






Current Simsboro Aquifer Applications Pending:

-  45,000 acre-feet/yr          Forestar Group      Approved at 12,000 ac-ft/yr
-  10,000 acre-feet/yr          LCRA                    Approved at 8,000 ac-ft/yr
-  56,000 acre-feet/yr          End Op                 Contested
-    2,000 acre-feet/yr          City of Bastrop/XS Ranch   Contested
-    3,226 acre-feet/yr          Manville WSC        Approved
-    3,360 acre-feet/yr          Heart of Texas      Withdrawn
-    1,613 acre-feet/yr          City of Bastrop      Approved
119,199 acre-feet/yr     TOTAL APPLICATIONS FOR SIMSBORO WELLS

Currently Permits in the Simsboro Aquifer 
-  23,627 acre-feet/yr            Aqua WSC
-    6,653 acre-feet/yr            Manville WSC 
-  11,023 acre-feet/yr            Lee Co. WSC 
-       100 acre-feet/yr            Lee Co. FWSD 
-         67 acre-feet/yr            Hunters Crossing 
-    3,850 acre-feet/yr            Alcoa (currently pumping 6201 acre-feet/yr)
45,365 acre-feet/yr        TOTAL PERMITS FOR SIMSBORO WELLS


164,884 acre-feet/yr TOTAL SIMSBORO APPLICATIONS + PERMITS 
  4.4 times the Available Water (2060 MAG) for the Simsboro Aquifer
  5.6 times the Available Water (2010 MAG) for the Simsboro Aquifer

************************** 

 

A FEW FACTS From the Lost Pines Management Plan

-  Total Available Groundwater (MAG) in the District by 2060 is 58,888 acre-feet/yr.

-  Bastrop County projected water demand by 2060 is 65,266 acre-feet/yr.

-  Lee County projected water demand by 2060 is 6,603 acre-feet/yr.   

-  Current discharge to surface waters from all aquifers is 78,612 acre-feet/yr.  

-  Net recharge to all aquifers (recharge - discharge) is 7,249 acre-feet/yr.   

-  Current pumping for all aquifers in the District is 47,811 acre-feet/yr (website)

-  Current permits for all aquifers 73,000 acre-feet/yr (Austin-American Statesman) 

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