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The MOOG:
2038 Online Game
The next major milestone for IRI2038 is a massive open online game (MOOG) where participants explore the future of R&D management 25 years from now. Discussions have begun with the Institute for the Future (IFTF) to utilize their Foresight Engine platform for a 36 hour global game based on the IRI2038 future scenarios.
We expect to run the game in early September.
Watch future newsletters for more information and the invitation to participate!
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Regarding the project plan; you may notice that this game has moved from the integration to planning phase of the project. This is not a delay or timing change.
Since the game will place participants in scenario-based situations, as opposed to developing new futures of its own, it better fits the definition of planning rather than integration.
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IRI2038 Reading List
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IRI2038 Video Library
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Popular and Interesting Links
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t: (703) 647-2580
f: (703) 647-2581 |
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Welcome to the ninth edition of the IRI2038 monthly newsletter designed to keep you updated on this exciting Futures Project commissioned by IRI as part of its 75th Anniversary in 2013.
IRI2038 Completes Inductive Scenarios
Four provocative, yet plausible, views of the future were completed during the Diamond Jubilee. Influence diagrams developed at the February ROR Winter Meeting were further refined to deliver the inductive scenario systems diagrams shown below.
AFRICA LEAPFROGS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES:
An inability to build new capacity in the developed world due to increasing environmental regulations creates a new flexible and localized manufacturing process. This process churns out the highly customized products consumers demand at an ever-faster pace. With less of an installed asset base and the ability to better leverage its natural resources, Africa jumps ahead of the developed world in growth and economic dynamism.
EVERYTHING'S IN BETA: The collapse of the complex global manufacturing ecosystem leads to a bifurcated economy underpinned by local manufacturing. At the low end there is massive churn of new products that are introduced as beta products with little market research. On the other stand premium products that are socially reputable and deploy R&D resources towards tackling the big challenges of the 21st century.
In an era of virtual work and prize driven motivation, society creates three paths toward innovation. Many choose to directly connect their brains together in a community in which the network runs project management. Another path is to intentionally form insular communities that work in secrecy. With the entire workforce now freelance, many corporations adopt a model similar to Hollywood movie studios, where a small production team manages a large pool of freelance talent.
Cities become the major political force in countries due to their embrace of smart technologies to manage transportation, energy, and waste. They grab natural resources through giant public/private partnerships and grow into city-states. Technology and connectivity make distance irrelevant at last, restoring some balance to individuals and enabling scientists to do and teach at the level of entire corporations or universities of the past.
Follow this link to see the scenarios summarized in "placemat" form showing the systems maps, key drivers, dynamics and values.
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Eight Workshops Held at Jubilee
 Eight workshops were conducted by our IRI2038 group at the Diamond Jubilee during which participants explored how to manage R&D to succeed in the challenges posed by each future scenario.
Feedback was very positive that the sessions were both thought provoking and fun!
Thanks to everyone who participated in these workshops. The final scenarios report, including more scenario details and results of the workshops, will be available at the IRI2038 website by July 1st.
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Trends to Watch
 3-D Printing: The technology becomes controversial as the first functioning handguns are 3-D printed and several US states take steps to ban this application. On a more positive note, read how doctors saved an Ohio boy by printing an airway splint. ORNL also plans to print a prosthetic hand as a single object.
The Rise of Africa: Ernst and Young, in collaboration with the Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Market Studies, has issued a new report on growth opportunities in Africa.
Total Simulation: From Stanford's Brains in Silicon Laboratory: Neurogrid is the first simulation platform that can model a million neurons in real time.
Augmented Humans: The University of Southern California's Theodore Berger's work on restoring memory with memory implants is featured in MIT Technology Review.
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Interested in Learning More about Foresight Methods?
 Check out these classic articles on scenario methods:
Scenarios: Unchartered Waters Ahead
Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids
Planning as Learning
More recently: Living in the Futures (a review of Royal Dutch Shell's Futures studies)
Here are some key conferences on futures/foresights methods:
World Futures Studies Federation's Annual Meeting
June 26-28, Bucharest, Romania
World Future Society's Annual Meeting
July 19-21, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresights and Futures
August 21-23, Istanbul, Turkey
Other resources:
The millennium project describes the history and use of over 30 foresights tools used by futurists.
The University of Houston's Strategic Foresights Department holds their next week-long Certificate in Strategic Foresights course
May 13-17.
Or check out this book by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop.
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Project Reports and Newsletters
All IRI2038 project reports to date are available online. These are accessible by all IRI members plus others who participated in the project:
Futures Audit Report
Weak Signals Environmental Scan
Vision 2038: Implications Wheels (May-June RTM Column)
Vision 2038: 25 Years of Change in Product Development (March-April RTM Column)
Vision 2038: Envisioning the Future of R&D (January-February RTM Column)
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Current Project Status
Please feel free to contact us with questions and comments about this project!
Sincerely,
Ted Farrington, PepsiCo
Christian Crews, AndSpace Consulting
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What is IRI2038?
IRI2038 is a futures project that will explore the following questions:
- How will possible future developments, trends and events impact the art and science of research and technology management over the next 25 years?
- How must IRI evolve to best serve its membership in these various views of the future?
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