BiO Spiritualism Newsletter
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(belated)Merry 2010 Christmas And Happy 2011 New Year
I am working on a new book, albeit, not book 2 - egoAerodynamics
- as I predicted in Yes's
So I say I am working on book 1a, to be completed during the first half of next year. The working title and quite possibly the finished title is:
From Selfish Human - to Sacrificial Lamb - to Selfish Human
in one generation.
Consequently, I'm having a difficult time keeping up with this Free NewsLetter and other free web content provider stuff that I've choosen to do/be and I was going to make this be the last one.
However, I decided to do one more year because I feel I have some loose ends to tie up before exiting - especially in the horse race prediction challenge area that I've started. For example, I still have to get some significant amount of historical data for the Kentucky Derby online for "our" reference and now also since I finally figured out the Breeder's Cup I want to get some historical data online for it too. (See Quick Links' aLogicalChoice for more on this and for the SURE THING bets for Santa Anita December 26th through December 31st see the As god is my witness Press Release from 12/20/10 via the Newsletter Archive link and/or the Pattern Bets link via aLogicalChoice link.)
Loose ends and other miscellany ...
Sarah P as President?
There is some parallelism between Sarah Palin and Jesse the body Ventura, ex-Governor of the State of Minnesota as there is some between Minnesota politicians then and The Whole Country politicians now, albeit, not enough to make a case - i.e., predict - that Sarah P will win presidential bid in 2012.
Even though I voted for Jesse V in '99 - see here for more (click POLITICS Venn then feather-boa pink line in the road to unknown destinations, politicwise) - I don't think I'd vote for Sarah P in 2012 because unlike my view of Jesse V back then I don't really like Sarah P because she has such a high pitched voice - it sounds shrilly to me and it turns me off. (However, if the choice were our current Pres and VP vs. Sarah P and Michele Bachmann as her VP (or even Condi Rice as Pres and what's her name, ex-wife of ex-Pres Clinton if she chose this route VP) I'd probably vote for either of the latter two - but right now I'm thinking that that might not be the choices and the real choices are a still-to-be-determined thing.)
Double Dip Depression
As to my Chart 5 (from December 2008 Newsletter) that predicted a double dip depression to bottom out in 2011 with a djia value of 4000, the jury is still out.
See here for chart and notice that my original error in predicting the first bottom was off by 9.8% so I conclude the top could be too. Hence if djia closes above 11,088 * 1.098 = 12,174.62 before it double dips then I failed to predict it. (Today, 12/31/10 djia opened at 11,569.33).
Of course if the double dip never occurs then I failed to predict it also.
Horse Race Predictions and other Problems with
Predicting the behavior of volition possessing animals
(Jockey's and Trainers and Owners, not horses; horses don't have the power of volition)
Horses don't zig when they should zag or zag when they should zig, only jockeys can do this-horses zig when they should zig and zag when they should zag. Of course predicting these ahead of their occurrence when that occurrence depends on things inside the race itself is difficult if not impossible to do and so human beings usually accept some high percentage of being right as a pretty good thing - the higher the percentage the better.
Years ago I made the claim that I was going to provide a scientific counterclaim answer to the "psychology is not a science" critics who claim if human beings have volition--which by its very nature is unpredictable--then you can't have a science of psychology but since we want a science of psychology humans must not have volition.
I don't think I'll address this in my upcoming book 1a but I still might do it in a future work.
The answer to these critics I still believe falls into these areas: 1) their position rests on a mistaken notion of volition and 2) of science and 3) of prediction - i.e., the need to predict doesn't guarantee correct predictions any more than does the need of food guarantee a mushroom hunter he'll never make a mistake.
A Proper Government is a smaller government if the first Proper is the proper Proper.
And the proper Proper is: a government that protects our individual rights by protecting us from thugs--thugs foreign and thugs domestic--that is, the proper Proper is a government that runs the police, the military and the courts.
Any other function of government that is not directly related to these is not the proper Proper, that is, such functions are improper.
Proper is good.
Improper is bad.
Therefore join in in politics and be for Proper Government and against Improper Government.
I'll bet you however much you want - as long as it doesn't exceed 2 bucks - that a Proper Government is smaller than an Improper one.
And I'll also bet you the same amount of money that a limited government that is not limited to no more than a handfull of things such as the above identified 3 thing Proper Government things is not limited.
So that if a proper government to you is the above 3 things plus one more thing - say Road Maintenace for example - then you run the slippery slope risk. You do that is, unless you are transitioning from an Improper Government to a Proper Government.
In this case 4 things for the Government to do is ok.
Why not 5 things, you ask? Say, Regulator of rivers and waterways for example, that is, for those things that pose gigantic boundary value problems when it comes to the issue of property rights.
Well, ok 5 things it is.
What about fire departments and 1 other tbd thing so that we have 7 things that an Improper Government can do on its way to becoming a 3 things Proper Government.
But that's it. Seven is the maximum number of things to be allowed for an Improper Government to be as We The People - that is, as we the fourth branch of government - transform our Improper Government into a Proper Government.
Seven things then is it. It is the maximum number of things you can have for transforming an Improper Government of Hundreds of things into a Proper Government of only three things.
That is, we have to start somewhere and since 7 things is the maximum number of perceptual/concrete things that we humans can keep track of without getting deeply into our conceptual abilities it - 7 - is a number based on something rather than the un-limited based on nothing that the true bureaucratic mentality BM's would like to base it on.
So, in conclusion, my (unsolicited) political advice going forward is: BEWARE of BM's mixing their many issues in pots of muddy water.
And keep your eye on the ball, the real battle is over proper government versus improper government, not bigger government vs smaller government, these are side effects.
Why is Mr. Ed --the Liberal's Liberal--of CNN's The Ed Show the only one to notice (re: 12/15/10 program) that the Republicans seem to want to only cut the programs that we the people have already paid for, i.e.g., Social Security?
How should we categorize the world?
or that is,
What is the epistemology part of psychoepistemology?
or that is,
What is the best way to categorize The Breeder's Cup Races?
Epistemology is that science part of philosophy that studies the proper ways to validate knowledge -- e.g., if something matches reality it is true, if it doesn't it isn't.
Since psychoepistemology is how actual, individual minds validate their knowledge -- including erroneous ways, e.g., if something doesn't match reality its true -- the epistemology part is the way in which you, personally, actually validate your knowledge -- including the "knowledge" you have that makes the following cliche applicable to you (assuming that it is applicable to you):
It ain't what I don't know that's the problem; it's what I do know that ain't so that's f'g me up.
Since Objectivist Epistemology has already figured out the proper ways to validate knowledge, I refer you there for more guidance.
Here I want to think about the best way to categorize The Breeder Cup Races, which over the last couple of years and possibly going back further have consisted of 14 races spread over two days at some race track in the U.S.
That is, I WANT to do this but since I haven't yet figured out all the translational terms relating horse race handicapping factors to a formal epistemology so that I can put what I think is the best way to think about the Breeder Cup races into final form I can't present it just yet. Consequently, I will have to wait until sometime next year to get into it.
Now it is true that I already have a concept of how one should think about the Breeder Cup races but since that concept came to me in a flash of insight I don't know if it is valid. Consequently, I have to think more about it, test it against historical data and then evaluate those tests and probably think about it some more.
That is, I have to use The Scientific Method combined with Objectivist Epistemology to present my take on the Breeder's Cup races.
Which, in conclusion, is to say: what I WANT to do even more so is to use my horse racing material to advance my understanding of Objectivist Epistmology.
Or that is, I think next year is 'gonna be even more fun than was this year.
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