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No. 16 of  2016

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2016

Filed from Portland, Oregon

Click here for Tuesday's quote from Foreign Minister Wang of China.

SEA CHANGE IN SOUTH KOREA

"We can no longer afford to be pushed around by North Korea's deceit and intimidation."

President Park Geun-hye
Address to the National Assembly
February 16, 2017
CONTEXT
It was a month ago that President Park Geun-hye of South Korea gave the very forceful address to the National Assembly in Seoul that included today's quote.  There seems to be no letup in the stream of alarming headlines from North Korea, more formally, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).  Recently, for example, the county's 33-year-old leader, KIM Jung Un, has talked about targeting Manhattan with a hydrogen bomb and yesterday the government of North Korea sentenced a University of Virginia student, Otto Warmbier, to fifteen years of hard labor "for crimes against the state."  He tried to steal a banner.

But let's go back to the events just prior to President Park's address on February 16.   On January 6, 2016, North Korea carried out its fourth nuclear test since 2006.  According to North Korea, the weapon they tested was a hydrogen bomb.

Then on February 7, North Korea launched a satellite into space.  Put differently, it conducted a sobering if not frightening test of its ballistic missile capabilities. 

It was against that background that President Park spoke to the National Assembly and urged her political colleagues and the nation as a whole to remain unified and determined against acts of North Korean intimidation and the threat of a clearly growing nuclear program.

In doing so, President Park reviewed her government's impressive record of attempted cooperation.  "Looking back," she said, "total [South Korean] government aid to North Korea since the mid-1990s surpasses U.S. $2.2 billion, while the figure exceeds U.S. $3 billion when including non-government assistance."   And the response to all of that has been nuclear tests and missile launches.
And so, President Park said:

"It has now become indisputably clear that the existing approach and good intentions will by no means work in countering the North Korean regime's determination to develop nuclear weapons, but will only lead to the enhancement of the North's nuclear capabilities, with catastrophic implications for the Korean Peninsula."

The bottom line came a little later in the speech when she said:

"[I]t is only right for the South, as the party with the most at stake and in concert with the international community, to use every means to make the North give up its nuclear ambitions."

Kaesong (Gaeseong) Industrial Complex.  While President Park promised more actions to come, she highlighted one big one in her mid-February speech: the complete closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex.  These are the processing facilities, just inside North Korea, that, until last month had been operated by South Korean firms.   Those facilities were closed, President Park explained, because the money earned by North Korea from Kaesong was flowing - not principally to the workers in the complex - but to North Korea's weapons program.

COMMENT
With apologies for the somewhat disparate nature of what follows, these are our responses to President Park's National Assembly Address.

Park and Emily Dickinson.  If there is one Emily Dickinson poem that is more troubling than the rest, it is the one that begins, "I like a look of Agony/Because I know it's true -"   The poem itself rings true but the thought, especially in certain circumstances, is jarring and uncomfortable.  But broaden it a bit.  What Dickinson likes is what she knows or believes to be true.  We liked President Park's speech to the National Assembly last month because, to our ears, it rang true.  And certainly there is enough agony in President Park's own history - the murder of her mother, the assassination of her father - to make you believe she knows something about those who would intimidate with terror.

The Korean Peninsula and the World Community.  In her speech, President Park talked a lot about the world community.  "Since the North's fourth nuclear test, more than a hundred countries have already joined in condemning Pyongyang's provocation," she said.  And, as one would expect, she spoke repeatedly of the Korea's alliance with the United States, and she mentioned China's role as well.

A Comment from China. And indeed these Korea issues came in for some discussion in Beijing during the March 8 press conference with China's foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Here is some of what Minister Wang had to say on the issue:

"At the moment, there is some saber-rattling on the Korean Peninsula, and the situation is highly charged.  If the tensions worsen and get out of control, it would be a disaster for all parties.  As the largest neighbor of the Peninsula, China will not sit by and see a fundamental disruption to stability on the Peninsula.  And we will not sit by and see unwarranted damage to China's security interests.  We strongly urge the parties to act with reason and restraint, and refrain from aggravating tensions. ....

"China has put forward a proposal to pursue, in parallel tracks, the denuclearization of the Peninsula and the replacement of the armistice agreement with a peace treaty."

We would like to think that Minister Wang was sending a message to North Korea, but alas, when it comes to assigning blame, he has left his options open. 

Three Trade Notes.  Strictly speaking, the foregoing comments - indeed this entire entry - deal more with security issues, threats of war and the like, than they do with trade.  We make no excuse for that.  The two are closely linked.  For those whose primary interest is in security, however, we would suggest that publications like The Nelson Report (contact: cnelson@samuelsinternational.com) may be more helpful than these TTALK Quotes.

A KORUS Milestone. As it happens, this week marks the fourth anniversary of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, and yesterday Terence Stewart of the law firm of Stewart & Stewart published an article that looks at KORUS after four years.  Yes, it's a bit critical but not without acknowledging the benefits of KORUS.   You will find it at KORUS at Four

Looking back, one of the issues in the KORUS negotiations was whether products from the Kaesong Industrial Complex might be included.  They were not, and it no longer matters.

Korea Services & Trade. Finally, President Park's comments on trade in services were remarkable.  She is clearly trying to steer the Korean economy in a services direction because, as she said, "The service industry is the treasure trove of jobs."  That's a statement worthy of a great deal of reflection, especially coming as it does from the president of a country that has been a manufacturing powerhouse.  
SOURCES & LINKS
President Park's Address is a link to an English translation of this important  speech from the website of the Washington Embassy of the Republic of Korea.

Targeting New York is a link to a March14 Washington Post story about North Korea's implicit threat to destroy New York City.  (Though it may be splitting hairs, we use the word "implicit" here because, shocking as the North Korean statement was, it was a statement about what they could do, not an assertion that they would do it.)

The Fourth Test is a BBC article on North Korea's nuclear tests, including the most recent on January 6.

DPRK Satellite Launched is February 7 CNN story on this development.

About President Park is the Wikipedia entry for President Park Geun-hye

 

 

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