THE TTALK QUOTES 

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No. 69 2015

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2015      

   
Filed from Washington, DC 
     
Click here for Tuesday's quote from the TPP Trade Ministers. 
ON TRADE AND THE RULES OF TRADE - FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES

"We shouldn't ... overstate this issue [of a potential conflict between WTO rules and those of other agreements].  The multilateral system has always co-existed with regional and bilateral deals and [they have] proved to be - those two tracks - mutually reinforcing." 

Roberto Azevêdo
September 24, 2015
CONTEXT
The World Trade Organization began functioning as such in January 1995, and last month, the Director-General of the WTO, Roberto Azevêdo, spoke to the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington on the topic The WTO at 20. 
 
He talked about the strengths, the weaknesses and the challenges of the organizations with characteristic candor, including the WTO's relationship with regional trade agreements - all of them, not just the headlines negotiations of TPP and TTIP.   He conceded that the negotiating function of the WTO - especially the inability to conclude the Doha Round - has become "the Achilles heel of the organization."  And he acknowledged that the rules generated in other settings can, occasionally, conflict with WTO obligations, thereby creating a drag on the system. 

Still, as today's quote highlights, the more essential message was upbeat, notwithstanding the WTO's very significant challenges.  The Director General talked about the great breadth of the WTO's work and emphasized:

The growth of the organization over the last 20 years.  There are now 33 more WTO members than there were in 1995, bringing the current membership to 161.

The expansion of trade liberalization. 
Average tariffs in 1995 were 15 percent and are now at 8 percent, Mr. Azevêdo said, and trade volumes have roughly doubled over the same period. 

And the success of the WTO dispute resolution system, with nearly 500 disputes having been dealt with in the 20 years of the WTO and most of them resolved.  Ninety percent was the figure he used.

Of course the Director General also talked about what is ahead, particularly the
the planning for the WTO's 10th Ministerial Conference, which will be held this December in Nairobi.  We will return to that issue next week.  Indeed, it is one that the Director-General himself addressed today in Geneva in remarks to the WTO's Trade Negotiations Committee, where he highlighted elements of a positive plan for Nairobi. Some of those elements were foreshadowed in his talk at the Peterson Institute last month. 

He was also candid in that earlier speech about the goals that seem unlikely to be met.  "As things stand today," he said, "... it doesn't look like there will be big breakthroughs in the areas that have been stalled for so many years, such as domestic supports in agriculture and market access in three areas: in ag., NAMA [industrial goods], and services."

COMMENT
The relationship between the rules of the WTO and those generated by other agreements was just one of several issues Mr. Azevêdo covered in his remarks at the Peterson Institute. We are highlighting it today because it is on our mind today, as we prepare for tomorrow's Cordell-Hull Institute Program on just this topic, an event that is being co-sponsored by the Global Business Dialogue. 

We expect to have more to say on this topic too once we have heard from the experts. Looking ahead to that discussion, it is not the spaghetti bowl - the potential conflict of rules - that concerns us so much as it is the impetus for a multiplicity of negotiating forums. 

As we recall the events of the 1980s, for example, the idea of a U.S.-Canada agreement was used in part as a kind of sheep dog, something to herd countries into action within the WTO. In more recent years, countries have not needed any encouragement to negotiate trade deals, but the direction hasn't been toward the center. It has been away from it. Maybe that trend is reversible. The newly minted Expansion of the Information Technology Agreement suggests as much, but the arguments on the other side, TPP, RCEP, and TTIP (to name a few) have hardly gone away.
SOURCES & LINKS
Azevêdo at Peterson is to a link to a page on the Peterson Institute's website with details of the September 24 event featuring Director-General Azevêdo and including both audio and video recordings. 

To the TNC takes you to a WTO report on Mr. Azevêdo's remarks to the Trade Negotiations Committee, that is, the WTO members, earlier today.

 

 

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