It was just yesterday that the ministers from the 12 TPP countries wound up their negotiations in Atlanta, Georgia, with this ringing statement of success.  And yet, in a sense, it was ages ago.  We doubt that there are any readers of these pages who are not already familiar with this text.  We share it, therefore, not so much to inform as to record.  The statement was relatively short, just three paragraphs.  Here are the other two:

Unquestionably, this is a significant achievement.   Even without the impressive boilerplate - 40 percent of global GDP, 800 million people --
getting a significant bloc of countries to agree on anything in today's world is noteworthy, especially when it involves real commitments.    And yet many of the reactions to the announcement have been muted, even from those who clearly would prefer to be strong supporters of a TPP agreement.  

Senator Orrin Hatch (R-UT), the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee issued a warning about the agreement before it was concluded, and another one of sorts afterwards.  In a speech on the Senate Floor on September 29, he argued against a premature conclusion to the TPP talks.  "No one - at least no one from our side of the negotiations," Senator Hatch said then, "should be in a hurry to close talks if it means getting a less-than-optimal result for our country."  

Then, yesterday, after the above announcement from Atlanta, Senator Hatch issued a statement saying he would "carefully examine the agreement over the next days and months" and including the ominous first impression that, as he put it, "I am afraid this deal appears to fall woefully short."

On the House side too the statements in response to the new TPP deal have been muted, with an emphasis more on the requirements of the newly minted trade promotion authority legislation rather than on the achievement of the negotiators.  Add to that these facts:  There isn't a final text yet, and it is not clear when we shall have one.  America's TPP partners, like the Obama Administration, are now hard at work selling the agreement.  Having declared victory, they have to explain it.  One of them, Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, is less than two weeks away from an election in which TPP has been a prominent issue. 

Put differently, now that an agreement has been announced, what Congress does with it will inevitably affect America's relationships both with the other TPP countries and with the rest of the world. 

As for the TPP agreement itself, it's complicated.  The matrix of countries and issues is complicated, and we expect to spend a lot of time on that matrix in the months ahead.  In thinking about where things stand today, three thoughts came to mind. 

Point I relates to the timing of the announcement that the deal had been done.  We have no firm view as to whether the Atlanta meeting was the right one for the announcement it produced.  Certainly, there were pressures to get the job done now, with Ministers like Akira Amari of Japan suggesting this was the last chance for some time.   On the other hand, when we think of past agreements - even agreements like KORUS with somewhat premature announcements - the decision to conclude was driven by the need to meet a legislative - TPA, fast track - deadline.  There was no such pressure in this instance.

Point II is that there is still a long way to go on the TPP road.  Our second thought, then, is the memory of Winston Churchill's speech in November 1942 after the invasion of North Africa.  That's the speech with the lines: 

Point III, our final thought for today is your editor's unfailing rule of life: Nothing is simple.   Certainly not TPP.

The Ministers Statement takes you to this milestone document, which is the source for today's quote. 

On the Senate Floor is Senator's Hatch's Senate speech on TPP of September 29, 2015.

A Chairman Reacts is Chairman Hatch's reaction to the announcement of TPP deal.

At the Lord Mayor's Day Luncheon is a link to the full text of the Churchill speech quoted above.