If you follow the Canadian prime minister on Twitter, you may already have seen this prediction.  It was a tweet he sent out yesterday.  As if to underscore just how soon "soon" may be, a few hours ago Prime Minister Harper sent out the message, "Wheels up to Brussels."

So, yes, we expect the free trade agreement between Canada and the European Union to be signed very soon indeed.  We don't know what is in it.  Early press reports talk about the final sticking points being over cheese (Canadian imports) and beef (Canadian exports).  Important as those sectors are, they are but two in an agreement that is likely to affect a very broad swath of Canadian and European commerce.  It is also an agreement that will have significant implications for the United States.  It is bound to be a reference point for America's own FTA negotiations with the EU and in some sectors, at least, it is likely to affect trade flows.

We do not yet know, for example, how the agreement deals with the touchy issue of geographical indications, how the tariff schedules will affect current suppliers - including U.S. suppliers to both Canada and the EU, or what provisions the agreement may contain on government procurement.  That's another touchy area, especially at the sub-federal level.

From the Throne. Yesterday was the opening day of the Second Session of the current or Forty-First Parliament of Canada.  As in the UK, Parliament in Canada is opened with a speech from the Throne.  In Canada that speech is delivered by the Queen's representative, the Governor-General.   After calling for a moment of silence for those killed in the Lac-Mégantic tragedy - the Quebec train derailment this past July - Governor-General David Johnston turned to the positive formalities of his speech: "I bear the happy wishes and deep affection of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Queen of Canada," he said.

Like an American State of the Union address, yesterday's Throne speech was multifaceted, including more than passing mention of the Canadian government's trade policy and infrastructure planning.  We'll look at trade here and infrastructure and procurement in the next entry.

Trade.  From its beginnings, Canada has been a trading nation, the Governor-General said.  Bringing things up-to-date, he said: "In less than seven years, Canada has concluded new free-trade agreements with nine countries and our Government is negotiating further agreements involving more than 60 others."  He cited these examples:

• The FTA with the EU would be done soon.  
   
• Other important negotiations include the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the separate, bilateral negotiations with Japan, South Korea, and India.
     
• Further promoting the success of Canadian exporters by launching a comprehensive new government plan "to assist Canadian businesses as they expand abroad."  And,
   
• With respect to Canada's "biggest and best customer," the United States, the Canadian government will "continue implementing the Beyond the Border and Regulatory Cooperation Action Plans to speed the flow of people, goods and services between our two countries." 

We don't generally recommend reading kitchen-sink speeches in full.  (That is speeches which, by their nature, have to cover a multitude of issues - everything but the kitchen sink.)  You could do worse than spend a few minutes reading this one, however.  For Canadians it may be simply a political speech, expressing as it does the views of the current government.  For an outsider, it is a window on Canadian history, pride, and policy.  At one point, the Governor General declared, "This is Canada's moment."  We don't think that was just bluster.

As for the pending deal with the European Union, we expect that it will significantly benefit both Canada and the EU.  But that is not all.  If, for example, the U.S.-EU negotiations do not move as quickly as promised, before too long, some in the United States may begin to feel the pinch of preferences, the ones their Canadian counterparts will have in Europe and they won't.  

We have labeled this "Bubbling Canada: Part I - Trade."  Part II will deal with infrastructure and government procurement.  For GBD, those are trade issues too, but in this case they deserve their own entry, which will be along shortly.