Just as you were enjoying your June statements from the various custodians who hold your money, I had to go and spoil it all with my quarterly analysis. The fact is, even with the rotten second quarter, performance for the year-to-date has actually been pretty good. The broad indices of stocks and bonds are mostly up for the year. It has, of course, been a rocky year, but we all expected that. The first quarter was surprisingly good but was followed by a weak April and horrible May. The positive performance of June left most people up nicely for the year, just not be enough to make things look good over the full quarter.
As I have said before, volatility is simply a price we must pay for superior performance over time.
The fact that markets are up for the year but the economy is still suffering illustrates an important point. While intertwined, to be sure, they are simply not the same and can often be disconnected from each other. Growth now is very slow and many people are really hurting. Many individual companies, however, are doing very well. Still, for there to be any significant gains across asset classes, we will have to see a real turnaround in the economy. This has been one of the longest waits for a recovery in history, but it will come.
The Intelligent Decision, now and as always, is to have a written and disciplined plan and stick to it. That is not always easy and typically most difficult when it is most important. I encourage you to call or write any time to review your current position and allocation to make sure you understand it fully and so that we may make adjustments if necessary.
If I currently do not have the privilege and responsibility of managing your wealth, this is probably the best time in memory for us to have a conversation. The economic times will remain treacherous and professional guidance by a fiduciary is always worth the cost.