You will have to read the article to understand the authors' definitions of each scenario and the highlighted characteristics of each one.  (For the record, I think the most likely scenario of these four is either A or D.)  They also go on to gauge the effects of each of these scenarios on three particular device segments: cardiovascular, orthopedics and neurological.

     One can successfully argue that other scenarios, perhaps many others, are possible.  One can also successfully argue that other uncertainties lurk to trip up the unaware.  But that's not what matters.  We're not looking for a perfect analytical prediction - that's impossible.  All we can expect from scenario planning is:

·         A definition of some drivers that are likely to matter going forward

·         Speculation on what scenarios might emerge as a result of these market drivers

·         Assessment of how each of these scenarios would affect your particular business

·         Stimulation of strategy-setting in response to each potential effect

In essence, scenario planning gets you to think about the future of your business as part of a revised, future market environment.

     Now, about this quarter's revenues!