Kremer: Election Winners and Losers

The 2009 election cycle is now behind us. Like they say in baseball there were runs, hits and errors. The Republican Party scored some big wins but many of them could have been averted had the Democrats not been asleep at the switch.

To start with odd years are what we call "off years" in election talk. Generally the party on the outside makes big gains in an off year. Who votes in an off year? Disgruntled voters are at the top of the list. Anyone who is upset with anything, tends to go to the polling place. Add those votes to the party out of power and you get Tuesday's results.

Any real suprises? Lots of them. The Corzine loss in New Jersey was a clear sign of a "throw out the incumbents" movement plus Corzine wasn't exactly a warm and fuzzy candidate. The small margin of victory for Mayor Bloomberg was a shocker. Many traditional Democratic and independent voters assumed Bloomberg was a big winner and stayed home. The Bloomberg field operation wasn't very good and failed to get his sure votes to the polls.

The Democratic victory in the upstate 23rd Congressional District was the fifth victory by a Democrat in a heavily Republican district. All the pundits are saying that President Obama suffered a loss in prestige so why did the Democrats win the only federal election in the country? Is Obama in trouble? Ask me after the 2010 election.

The races in the suburbs gave the Republicans a real shot in the arm with victories in Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as some of the smaller counties. Independent voters swung over to the GOP and joined the voters still unhappy with last year's election. But here is where the Democrats dropped the ball.

You don't have to be Machiavelli to figure out that the party in power loses seats during an off year. The Democrats in Nassau County and some other key places failed to anticipate that past history would again rear its ugly head. Not enough money or manpower was used and the results prove it.

What does all this mean for next year? Traditionally the party in power loses 28 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate. In addition there are always key losses at the local level. Next year there are two U.S. Senate seats up for a vote in New York plus all of the statewide offices. Add to that the state legislature.

For the Democrats it's time to wake up and get to work. For the Republicans it's a chance to gain more power unless the right wing destroys the party with primary battles and ideological warfare.