I am sure most of you are now well aware of the warfare that broke out between Russia and The Republic of Georgia over this past weekend. What you may not be aware of or understand is the many different facets of what is transpiring. This alert will hopefully help to give a broader view, more information and discernment in understanding and praying for these dangerous developments.
 
Some points that I have been considering regarding this outbreak of war:

• Nation will rise against nation - as with nearly all the conflicts taking place in the world right now this one involves ethnic groups that are divided by artificially created (manmade) borders.
• 9th of Av - Considering this happened right around the 9th of Av I am trying to understand the timeline of events as when this date comes around every year I sort of "flinch" wondering what may happen. Is this event somehow connected?
• Gog of Magog - Many have been watching closely in that they believe Magog is Russia and have been waiting to see what God going would use to put the hook in her jaws. However, the identity of Magog as well as others in this prophecy as well as it's timing is not without debate. One interesting note is that the Great Wall of China was once known as the "Ramparts of Magog".
• Oil - The British Petroleum pipeline running through Georgia has been a concern to watch for some time. Nearly all the conflicts involving the Super Powers somehow have involved oil.
• Israel - Israel has been very involved with Georgia although you would not know it from reading or watching traditional or mainstream news venues. However, the Israeli media has been very upfront about their partnership with Georgia in various dealings one of those being oil.

There are other points as well but these are some I have been pondering these past few days all in light of scripture.
 
This alert will give you some perspectives you may not have heard, beginning with a report and prayer request from Moriel's missionary to Beslan, Russia Jason Catizon, which is very near to the border with Georgia and South Ossetia. Russia did not allow Jason back into the country this year, and so he is back in the United States. However, his insight into this terrible situation I believe is very important information that needs to be shared with the saints around the world and one that shows just how complicated this situation is.

With this collection of articles the focus is intentionally on surrounding factors and not the fighting itself since most see that covered nearly continuously. I need to add though that I am extremely suspicious of much of what has transpired as I always am these days concerning world events. There are too many particulars to cover here but I do not doubt one moment this was a long known about and planned event in 'some' circles. However, never be fooled as The LORD is the one who is in control!
 
The article below titled "Before the Gunfire: Cyberattacks" describes a phrase in the intelligence community "a wilderness of mirrors" that I would surmise suggests of the many layers of rumors and disinformation that are released purposely all in order to keep the truth hidden. It struck me that the enemy of our soul has indeed made this world a wilderness of mirrors to keep people chasing false images, idols, lies and misinformation rather than the truth and the only real One, that is Christ.
 
Jesus our Messiah can only be found in the Word of God, and that is the only lamp for our feet, light for our path and the only true roadmap to peace.

 
BE/\LERT!
Scott Brisk

KOINONIA HOUSE - from the August 12, 2008 eNews issue
Russia's invasion of Georgia has caused a uproar in the international community and further strained Russia's diplomatic relationship with the West. These events could help pave the way for the famed battle prophesied in Ezekiel 38 and 39. It is during this battle, that God will directly intercede to protect Israel from Magog and its allies:

"And the word of the LORD came unto me, saying, Son of man, set thy face against Gog, the land of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him...And I will turn thee back, and put hooks into thy jaws, and I will bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horse-men, all of them clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords... (Ezekiel 38:1-4)."

So begins this classic passage in which Gog and Magog, with their allies, are drawn into an invasion of Israel only to have the God of Israel use the occasion to show Himself strong by intervening on behalf of His people and destroying the invading forces. To understand this passage, it is essential to first determine who the players are. Despite the many controversies, these participants are surprisingly well identified. Just who are the people represented here by these ancient tribal names?

Why Such Weird Names?

Have you ever wondered why the Biblical prophets always seem to refer to various peoples by such strange names? It's actually our fault! We keep changing the names of things. There once was a city known as Petrograd. For many years it was known as St. Petersburg. Then it was changed to Leningrad. Now it's St. Petersburg again. What will it be named a few years from now? (My friends in Russia say that in Russia, even the past is uncertain!) The capital of the old world, Byzantium, was renamed Constantinople. Now that city is known as Istanbul. This occurs even in our own country. How many of you remember when "Cape Canaveral" was renamed "Cape Kennedy"? Ten years later it became "Cape Canaveral" again.

But we do not change the names of our ancestors! So, if you were the prophet Isaiah and were called upon to speak of the Persians over a century before they emerged as an empire, how could you refer to them? You would speak of them as the descendants of Elam, the forebears of the Persians.

All humans are descended, not only from Adam, but from Noah. Noah and his three sons repopulated the entire Earth after the flood. Thus, we are all descendants of Noah's three sons: Ham, Shem, and Japheth. The genealogical records of Noah and his three sons are listed in Genesis 10, and the 70 original tribal groups described there are often called the "Table of Nations" by Biblical scholars.

Magog was one of the sons of Japheth and his descendants are often referred to by their Greek name, the Scythians. Early scholars and historians - including Josephus Flavius and the "Father of History" Herodotus - have identified Magog with the people group that has become the modern nation of Russia. - - - -
Read Full Report

Israel and U.S. Divided on Response to Russian Invasion
FORWARD - By Nathan Guttman - August 14, 2008
Washington - Escalating tensions between Russia and the West over the war in Georgia are raising concerns in Israel that broken relations with Moscow might jeopardize international efforts to block Iran's nuclear program.

Washington has threatened Moscow with diplomatic retaliation for its military operations on Georgian territory, and has hinted that it would push for a ban on Russian participation in international forums if Moscow does not cooperate with attemp ts to reach a lasting cease-fire. Israel has noticeably departed from the American line, going so far as to freeze its military ties with Georgia in an effort to placate Moscow.

Washington and Jerusalem's divergent reactions to the war in Georgia are indicative of the split among Western policymakers on the efficacy of engaging a resurgent Russia in efforts to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions. While some have warned that shakier relations between Moscow and the West may lead to less Russian cooperation, others are citing the conflict in Georgia as evidence that Russia cannot be trusted as a diplomatic partner.

"Russia's role is not one of pure partnership," said Sarah Mendelson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Russia and Eurasia Program. "The longer we go on this path, the more difficult it will become. We will not be able to put Humpty Dumpty together again."

Even before fighting broke out in the separatist enclave of South Ossetia, Israel took steps to curb arms sales to Georgia, in response to concerns raised in Jerusalem by Russian diplomats. After the conflict erupted, the Israeli Foreign Ministry called on the Defense Ministry, which is in charge of licensing and approving private arms sales to foreign nations, to halt permits for military assistance to the Georgian armed forces. Officials with the Israeli Defense Ministry said that defense contracts with Georgia had been halted in order to avoid further tension with Russia.

Israel's military cooperation with Georgia is limited to the private sector and is estimated to have totaled no more than $500 million over the past decade. The assistance includes training of Georgian ground troops by former senior Israeli military officers, as well as upgrades for Georgian fighter jets and the supplying of advanced unmanned aerial vehicles. An Israeli-made Georgian UAV was shot down by Russia last May, leading to a formal Russian complaint to Jerusalem. Israel's freezing of military ties to Georgia has not gone unnoticed in Moscow. Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, told CNN on August 12 that Washington should follow Jerusalem's example.

"Israel, which has also been one of the arms suppliers, is reconsidering its sales in the arms area," Churkin said.

To date, the United States has dismissed Russian calls for a halt in American assistance to Georgia and is outspokenly offering diplomatic backing to President Mikheil Saakashvili.

In an August 13 statement, President Bush strongly hinted that the United States is considering punitive diplomatic measures against Russia. . . .

The diplomatic actions considered against Russia include blocking its efforts to join the World Trade Organization, delaying approval of an American-Russian nuclear treaty and excluding Russia from the group of industrialized nations known as the G-8. . . .

Howard Berman, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, suggested that lawmakers might withhold backing for the nuclear treaty, which requires congressional approval. Berman made clear that he is not concerned about having sanctions against Russia backfire and affect the effort to stop Iran.

"Russian cooperation on Iran has been of overwhelming importance," Berman told Congressional Quarterly on August 11. Yet "even that priority can't lead us to just overlooking and sweeping under the rug a massive overreaction by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a neighbor."

By any measure, Russia wields substantial influence on efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.

On the diplomatic front, Russia holds the key for imposing strict sanctions against Iran. . . .

On the military front, Russia could seriously complicate an Israeli air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities if it goes through with a deal to supply Tehran with advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Reports of the planned arms sale surfaced last month, but according to an Israeli diplomatic source, Moscow made clear that the deal was not finalized.

At any rate, the tough rhetoric coming from Washington is raising concern in Jerusalem. An Israeli official said that America's wish to make clear its objection to the Russian conduct is understandable, but "we are also looking at the day after."

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, added that Israel sees the coming months as crucial for making progress on the diplomatic front, stating also that playing a constructive role with Iran could be a way for Russia to move beyond the conflict in Georgia. - - - -
Read Full Report

DEBKAFILE - August 12, 2008
DEBKAfile's military sources note that the arrival of the three new American flotillas will raise to five the number of US strike forces in Middle East waters - an unprecedented build-up since the crisis erupted over Iran's nuclear program.

This vast naval and air strength consists of more than 40 carriers, warships and submarines, some of the last nuclear-armed, opposite the Islamic Republic, a concentration last seen just before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Our military sources postulate five objects of this show of American muscle:

1. The US, aided also by France, Britain and Canada, is finalizing preparations for a partial naval blockade to deny Iran imports of benzene and other refined oil products. This action would indicate that the Bush administration had thrown in the towel on stiff United Nations sanctions and decided to take matters in its own hands.

2. Iran, which imports 40 percent of its refined fuel products from Gulf neighbors, will retaliate for the embargo by shutting the Strait of Hormuz oil route chokepoint, in which case the US naval and air force stand ready to reopen the Strait and fight back any Iranian attempt to break through the blockade.

3. Washington is deploying forces as back-up for a possible Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear installations.

4. A potential rush of events in which a US-led blockade, Israeli attack and Iranian reprisals pile up in a very short time and precipitate a major military crisis.

5. While a massive deployment of this nature calls for long planning, its occurrence at this time cannot be divorced from the flare-up of the Caucasian war between Russia and Georgia. While Russia has strengthened its stake in Caspian oil resources by its overwhelming military intervention against Georgia, the Americans are investing might in defending the primary Persian Gulf oil sources of the West and the Far East.

DEBKAfile's military sources name the three US strike forces en route to the Gulf as the USS Theodore Roosevelt , the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Iwo Jima . Already in place are the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea opposite Iranian shores and the USS Peleliu which is cruising in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Original Report Here

ASSOCIATED PRESS - By Jim Heintz - August 15, 2008
MOSCOW - A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations.

Poland and the United States on Thursday signed a deal for Poland to accept a missile interceptor base as part of a system the United States says is aimed at blocking attacks by rogue nations. Moscow, however, feels it is aimed at Russia's missile force.

"Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike - 100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.

He added, in clear reference to the agreement, that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons "against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them." Nogovitsyn that would include elements of strategic deterrence systems, he said, according to Interfax.

At a news conference earlier Friday, Nogovitsyn had reiterated Russia's frequently stated warning that placing missile-defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic would bring an unspecified military response. But his subsequent reported statement substantially stepped up a war of words.

U.S. officials have said the timing of the deal was not meant to antagonize Russian leaders at a time when relations already are strained over the recent fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist Georgian region of South Ossetia. - - - -
Read Full Report

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE - July 22, 2008
Russia would cross "a red line for the United States of America" if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday.

"If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America," said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force's chief of staff.

He was referring to a Russian news report that said the military is thinking of flying long-range bombers to Cuba on a regular basis.

It was unclear from the report whether that would involve permanent basing of nuclear bombers in Cuba, or just use of the island as a refueling stop. . . .

The newspaper Iszvestia on Monday cited an unnamed senior Russian air force official in Moscow as saying that Russia may start regular flights by long-range bombers to Cuba in response to US plans to install a missile defense system in eastern Europe. . . .

Conducting long-range bomber patrol to Cuba would signal a reawakening of military cooperation by former Cold War allies Moscow and Havana, and recall the 1962 missile crisis that brought Washington and Moscow to the brink of war.

Over the past year, Russia already has revived long-range strategic bomber patrols in the Pacific and north Atlantic. - - - -
Read Full Report

He demanded that Russia open all routes to these deliveries and to civilian transit
DEBKAFILE - August 13, 2008
DEBKAfile's military sources report that the strong military actions a furious US president George W. Bush ordered Wednesday, Aug. 13, after seven days of Russian-Georgian warfare, amount to a bid to break the sea, land and air blockade Russia still maintains against Georgia in violation of the EU-brokered ceasefire.

The first direct US-Russian military clashes in Georgia are now possible if the Russians fail to give way when challenged by US air transports and vessels heading for Georgia. For seven days, Russia has exerted exclusive mastery of Georgia's skies, sea and land routes.

Flanked by the secretaries of state and defense, Bush said that Robert Gates as head of the military had already sent the first US Air Force C-17 military cargo plane with humanitarian and medical aid on its way to Georgia. It has already landed. Our military sources report that the US air corridor has a short distance to fly from US bases in Italy and Turkey.

Russia's Lavrov lashed back, calling Georgia's leadership "a special project of the United States." At some point, he said, the US will have to choose "either support for a virtual project or real partnership [with Russia] on issues that demand collective action." - - - -
Read Full Report

The BTC pipeline was conceived in the 1990s as a way of reducing the West's reliance on oil and gas from the Middle East and, crucially, Russia. Now it is under threat. At stake are the balance of power in the Caucasus, and the vital questions of how, and where, the US and Europe will obtain their oil.
THE TIMES of LONDON [News Corporation/Murdoch] - By Ben Macintyre - August 13, 2008
Snaking 155 miles across Georgia is a man-made underground river of crude oil. An astonishing feat of engineering, the oil pipeline is a barely visible gash in the earth and measures just 34 inches in diameter at its narrowest, yet it represents a vital artery in the circulation of global energy, and a key to understanding the conflict between Georgia and Russia raging above ground just a few miles away.

The pipeline meets just 1 per cent of the global demand for oil, but it carries enormous political significance. For Georgia, it represents independence from Russian hegemony, a physical, political and economic link to Europe that is outside Moscow's control. For the West, the pipe is a small but crucial counterbalance to our growing dependence on Russian oil and gas. For Moscow, the pipe represents part of a systematic attempt to reduce Russian influence in the Caucasus, a thorn in the paw of the bear.

The pipe runs just 35 miles south of South Ossetia: by stamping its military authority on Georgia, Russia is simultaneously reasserting its control over the region and, by implication, the pipeline.

As the conflict rages, Georgian authorities have repeatedly accused Russian jet fighters of targeting the oil pipeline with bombs, accusations that Moscow has denied. Oil may not be the cause of the war between Georgia and Russia, but it is a central element in the wider geo-strategic picture, and a source of incendiary tension that has helped to inflame the area.

At stake is not merely the balance of power in the Caucasus but, by extension, the vital question of how the US and Europe will secure enough oil to power the cities and machines on which modern life depends.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the second longest in the world, connects the oil fields of the Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean coast of Turkey; it runs for 1,100 miles, through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and pumps one million barrels of oil a day to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where the oil is loaded on to supertankers.

The BTC pipe, owned by an energy consortium led by BP, is the only way to bring significant quantities of oil from the Caspian fields while bypassing both Russia and Iran. Georgia has no significant oil or gas reserves of its own, but thanks to the pipeline it has become a crucial conduit, harking back to its ancient role as a trade link between Europe and Asia.

More than that, the pipeline is a central element in Georgia's independence from Russia. In the words of Georgia's President Saakashvili, "All strategic contracts in Georgia, especially the contract for the Caspian pipeline, are a matter of survival for the Georgian state." Saakashvili's miscalculation was to assume that Western reliance on Caspian oil would translate into material support against Russian aggression.

The BTC pipeline was conceived in the 1990s as a way of reducing the West's reliance on oil and gas from Russia and the Middle East. The oil reserves beneath the landlocked Caspian Sea are thought to be vast, perhaps as much as 200 billion barrels, compared to the estimated 260 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia.

History ensured that the pipeline would follow a tortuous route. To get the oil from Azerbaijan to Turkey meant passing through Iran, Georgia or Armenia. Hostile and unpredictable Iran was out of the question. The long, bitter dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, and the lingering historical feud between Armenia and Turkey over claims of genocide during and just after the First World War, also ruled out Armenia. The route through Georgia, circuitous and physic- ally challenging, was selected as the most practical.

Russia, predictably, was opposed from the start, fearing that the independent pipeline would reduce its global energy clout, undermine its regional influence and perhaps pave the way for the introduction of Western troops into Georgia to defend the pipeline.

In the Soviet era, all oil routes from the Caspian passed through Russia. The BTC pipeline therefore represented a direct challenge in Russian eyes, economic, political and highly symbolic. Despite the formidable logistical challenges, and Moscow's continued opposition, construction began in 2002, and was completed, astonishingly, in just two years. Built from 150,000 lengths of pipe each 12 metres long, it crosses an estimated 1,500 streams and rivers, the largest, at Ceyhan, 1,600ft wide; it traverses mountain ranges and roads, railways and power lines. More than 15,000 builders and engineers worked on its construction, and 400 archaeologists were deployed by BP to sift through the artefacts unearthed by the diggers.

For most of its length, the pipe is buried in a trench at least a metre deep, to protect it from terrorist attack. In many parts, only a strip of land where the vegetation has not fully grown back betrays its meandering path.

The pipeline also faced vigorous opposition from environmentalists pointing out that the pipe runs through pristine areas of wilderness, many prone to violent earthquakes, including the beautiful Borjomi-Kharagauli National Park in Georgia.

The section of pipeline running through Georgia is the shortest of the three. Here it is patrolled by camouflaged, American-trained anti-terrorist units, defending the supply from possible attack by South Ossetian or Abkhazian secessionists.

The pipeline is similarly guarded in Turkey but, stretching over 670 miles, it is far harder to defend. Indeed, the pipe is currently shut down as a precautionary measure after suspected Kurdish rebels attacked a pumping station in the wilds of eastern Turkey on August 6. The resulting fire was finally extinguished on Monday.

BP yesterday announced that it has closed two more gas and oil pipelines, the south Caucasus gas pipeline and a second oil line running to Supsa on the Black Sea.

The Georgian section of the BTC pipe was inaugurated in October 2005, by a delighted President Saakashvili, and the first oil was pumped into a waiting supertanker at Ceyhan in May 2006.

The entire project cost an estimated $4 billion, underwritten by UK taxpayers through the Export Credits Guarantee Department. Fully operational, the pipe can pump one million barrels of oil a day, with oil rushing through the pipe at the rate of 2 metres a second. Alongside the oil pipe runs the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, taking natural gas to Erzerum in Turkey.

The sheer scale, ambition and potential vulnerability of the pipeline project seized the public imagination far beyond the region. Most notably, a fictional version of the BTC pipeline appeared in the 1999 James Bond film The World is Not Enough starring Pierce Brosnan. In the film, Sophie Marceau plays Elektra King, a half-Azeri oil heiress responsible for an oil pipeline linking the Caspian and Mediterranean.

The real pipeline earns Georgia some $62 million a year in transit fees but the dividends are as much political as economic. The former Georgian President, Eduard Shevardnadze, one of the project's principal architects, saw the pipeline as a guarantee of Georgia's stability, a way of binding the West to Georgian independence.

That view was loudly echoed by the West, to Russia's continued annoyance. "The US has consistently supported BTC because we believe in the project's ability to bolster global energy security," George W. Bush declared recently. The US has also pushed for the building of a pipeline across the Caspian, which could link up Turkmenistan's oil reserves to the BTC, potentially vastly increasing the amount of oil flowing West and bypassing Russia.

Viewed from Moscow, the BTC is an economic irritant, just as Georgia, angling for Nato membership and buoyed by Western support, is a political threat to its regional power. Russia has not hesitated to use its oil and gas power as a political weapon in the past: in 2006, Russia's Gazprom threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Georgia in the middle of winter.

Russia currently supplies one quarter of the oil and half the gas consumed in Europe - a level of dependency that at once explains the West's enthusiasm for an alternative supply route, Russia's resentment and, fatally, Georgia's misplaced confidence in Western support. Optimistic Georgians refer to BTC as the "pipeline of peace", yet it has played an important role in the war that has now erupted.

There is simply not yet enough crude oil flowing down the pipe to wean the oil-thirsty West from dependence on Russia and the Middle East, and certainly not enough to prompt US military intervention in defence of Georgian independence.

The Caspian oil flowing beneath its land represented Georgia's dowry to the West; when running at full bore $1 billion worth of oil gurgles through the pipe every ten days. So far the Georgian section of pipeline is still intact. The bonanza will start to flow again - and will only increase in importance as other Caspian reserves come on stream - unless, that is, Russia can intervene and wreck the marriage.

Power in the pipeline: Why the BTC matters

It was controversial from the start. Now President Saakashvili claims that Georgia's BTC oil pipeline was a key reason for the Russian offensive.

When it was conceived in the 1990s, the pipeline was backed by the US and Britain as a way to reduce Western dependence on Russian and Middle-Eastern oil. UK taxpayers even underwrote some of the $3billion construction costs. But Russia always opposed it, wanting to maintain its grip on the vast resources of the former Soviet Caspian region. Its strategic value is clear. At current prices it carries more than $1billion worth of crude oil every ten days.

Strangely, when the current war broke out, the pipeline, which is 30 per cent owned by BP, was closed. Just 48 hours before Georgian troops made their ill-fated incursion into South Ossetia, a mysterious fire broke out several hundred kilometres away in the Turkish section. Kurdish rebels later claimed responsibility, though there is still some uncertainty about the cause.

So far, oil markets have not reacted strongly to the war despite reports that the Russians have tried to bomb the pipeline. The market has preferred to focus on signs that global oil consumption is slowing as the world economy has weakened. But a sustained war in the Caucasus or efforts by Russia to seize control of the pipeline would create the threat of higher prices - and hence more expensive petrol on UK forecourts.

Many people have another stake in the future of the pipeline through their ownership of shares in BP, Britain's largest company, although as pension-holders they may well not know that the funds they depend on hold such shares.

With the depletion of reserves from the North Sea, oil from the Caspian region is of growing importance to Europe. As North Sea oil declines, high-quality crude from Azerbaijan is helping to take up the slack - and the BTC is likely to become even more important as the taps are opened on the vast new oilfields of Central Asia.

When it was discovered in 2000, Kazakhstan's Kashagan oilfield was the largest found since the 1960s. It has not yet entered commercial production - but when it does, the BTC will be its route to market. Understandably, Russia wants control over these reserves, which are of growing strategic importance to global energy supplies.

While oil prices tend to be influenced by shorter-term factors, the prospect of direct Russian control of the BTC pipeline would be unwelcome in the West, bolstering the Kremlin's dominance over our energy future. This is one key reason why the current conflict is raising hackles in the West.

ROBIN PAGNAMENTA
Energy and Environment Editor
Read Full Report

NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Jad Mouawad - August 13, 2008
When the main pipeline that carries oil through Georgia was completed in 2005, it was hailed as a major success in the United States policy to diversify its energy supply. Not only did the pipeline transport oil produced in Central Asia, helping move the West away from its dependence on the Middle East, but it also accomplished another American goal: it bypassed Russia.

American policy makers hoped that diverting oil around Russia would keep the country from reasserting control over Central Asia and its enormous oil and gas wealth and would provide a safer alternative to Moscow's control over export routes that it had inherited from Soviet days. The tug-of-war with Moscow was the latest version of the Great Game, the 19th-century contest for dominance in the region.

A bumper sticker that American diplomats distributed around Central Asia in the 1990s as the United States was working hard to make friends there summed up Washington's strategic thinking: "Happiness is multiple pipelines."

Now energy experts say that the hostilities between Russia and Georgia could threaten American plans to gain access to more of Central Asia's energy resources at a time when booming demand in Asia and tight supplies helped push the price of oil to record highs. . . .

The latest struggle over Caspian oil started in earnest in the 1990s under Bill Clinton, after the breakup of the Soviet Union. The building of the pipeline that passes through Georgia, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan line, or BTC, remains one of the signature successes of the American strategy to put a wedge between Russia and the Central Asian countries that had been Soviet republics.

Attempts to get oil out of Kazakhstan through a non-Russia route failed. Most of the oil production from the giant field of Tengiz, for example, in which Chevron is the largest investor, now travels through a pipeline known as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which runs along the northern Caspian coastline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. And proposals for new oil and natural gas pipelines in the region have stalled, in part, because of Moscow's opposition.

Some analysts believe the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia not only is rooted in historical enmity, but it is an outgrowth of Russia's fears that Georgia, with its pro-Western bent, could prove to be a lasting competitor for energy exports.

"Russians treasured the fact they had a monopoly on oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia, as it gave them considerable clout," said Marshall I. Goldman, a senior scholar for Russian studies at Harvard and the recent author of "Petrostate: Putin, Power, and the New Russia." "By agreeing to having an oil pipeline, Georgia made itself more vulnerable."

A big concern for the future is what will happen to oil from Kashagan, the giant oil field in the Caspian Sea that holds over 10 billion barrels of reserves. Located off Kazakhstan, Kashagan is the most ambitious attempt to date by Western companies to develop new supplies in the Caspian. It will be at least five years before oil starts flowing from there, but the operating consortium, which includes Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, plans to transport some of Kashagan's oil through the BTC pipeline.

That would involve building a new pipeline under the Caspian to connect to BTC. Russia has opposed similar plans in the past.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, 1,100 miles long, transports 850,000 barrels a day of oil, or one percent of global supplies, from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey, ending at the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. Much of the oil is bound for Europe and the United States.

The oil comes from several fields in Azerbaijan, offshore in the Caspian. The line, which cost $4 billion to build, also carries some oil from Tengiz that is barged across the Caspian.

Before the BTC pipeline was built, the West struggled to find routes that would avoid what Western leaders considered to be potential trouble spots, but it was difficult. The United States did not want the line to pass through Iran, for instance. In the end, the United States government, BP, which operates the pipeline, and other private investors decided the line should proceed on its current route. That gave a boost to newly independent counties and to Turkey, an ally, but it also sent the line through three nations struggling with separatists.

Even before the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Georgia, analysts were reminded of how precarious even the favored route could be.

Last Wednesday, the pipeline was shut down after it was hit by an explosion in Eastern Turkey. Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility, although it remains unclear what caused the blast.

There have also been unconfirmed reports in recent days that Russian planes had targeted the pipeline, although BP has said the line was not hit.

BP said on Wednesday that it would take a week to determine how long the pipeline will remain shut. Other investors in the pipeline are Socar, the state-owned oil company of Azerbaijan; Chevron; ConocoPhillips; StatoilHydro, from Norway; ENI, from Italy; and Total, from France.

Russia, which is flush with petrodollars because of the rise in the price of oil, has not been afraid to flex its muscle in recent years to bring its neighbors in line. Two years ago, Gazprom, the national oil company then run by Dmitri A. Medvedev, now the Russian president, cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine in the winter because of a price dispute.

That had a knock-on effect in Europe, where many policy makers began questioning their reliance on Russian natural gas, although there was no consensus on what to do. One proposal, favored by the United States, has been to build a natural gas pipeline parallel to the BTC line.

"For the Europeans, the Ukraine gas crisis was like a snooze alarm," said Frank A. Verrastro, the director of the energy and national security program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington. - - - -
Read Full Report

'This clearly shows that Russia has targeted not just Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets as well.'
LONDON DAILY MAIL [Associated Newspapers/DMGT - PA: Conservative/Right-Wing] - By Svetlana Skarbo and Jonathan Petre - August 10, 2008
The war in Georgia escalated dangerously last night after Russian jets reportedly bombed a vital pipeline that supplies oil to the West. . . .

Their claims came after Russian jets struck deep into the territory of its tiny neighbour, killing civilians and 'completely devastating' the strategic Black Sea port of Poti, a staging post for oil and other energy supplies.

Reports last night also said that Russia had bombed the international airport in Tbilisi.

Georgian economic development minister Ekaterina Sharashidzne said: 'This clearly shows that Russia has targeted not just Georgian economic outlets but international economic outlets as well.'

The pipeline is 30 per cent owned by BP and supplies 1 per cent of the world's oil needs, pumping up to a million barrels of crude per day to Turkey.

It is crucial to the world's volatile energy market and the only oil and gas route that bypasses Russia's stranglehold on energy exports from the region. - - - -
Read Full Report

NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By C. J. Chivers - August 10, 2008
. . . [W]hile the immediate causes and the intensity of the Russian invasion had caught Georgia and the Western foreign policy establishment by surprise, there had been signs for years that Georgia and Russia had methodically, if quietly, prepared for conflict.

Several other long-term factors had also contributed to the possibility of war. They included the Kremlin's military successes in Chechnya, which gave Russia the latitude and sense of internal security it needed to free up troops to cross its borders, and the exuberant support of the United States for President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia, a figure loathed by the Kremlin on both personal and political terms.

Moreover, by preparing Georgian soldiers for duty in Iraq, the United States appeared to have helped embolden Georgia, if inadvertently, to enter a fight it could not win. . . .

Under the presidency of Vladimir V. Putin, Russia had already been granting citizenship and distributing passports to virtually all of the adult residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the much larger separatist region where Russia had also massed troops over the weekend. The West had been skeptical of the validity of Russia's handing out passports by the thousands to citizens of another nation. . . .

In the ensuing years, even as Russia issued warnings, Mr. Saakashvili grew bolder. There were four regions out of Georgian control when he took office in 2004, but he restored two smaller regions, Ajaria in 2004 and the upper Kodori Gorge in 2006, with few deaths.

The victories gave him a sense of momentum. He kept national reintegration as a central plank of his platform.

Russia, however, began retaliating against Georgia in many ways. It cut off air service and mail between the countries, closed the border and refused Georgian exports. And by the time the Kodori Gorge was back in Georgian control, Russia had also consolidated its hold over Chechnya, which is now largely managed by a local leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, and his Kremlin-backed Chechen forces. - - - -
Read Full Report

ASSOCIATED PRESS - By Douglas Birch - August 10, 2008
VLADIKAVKAZ, Russia-Refugees from South Ossetia on Sunday described being shelled and shot at and forced to run for their lives-leaving homes, family members and most of what they had behind.

They talked of hiding in the woods, being mocked by Georgian soldiers and passing the dead on the roadside.

The hundreds of refugees from the fighting in the Georgian breakaway region sought shelter in Russia on Sunday. They were among thousands who fled the region, and in particular the capital city of Tskhinvali, in recent days as Georgian forces battled for control.

Marina Dudayeva, a woman in her early 20s, fled from Tskhinvali wearing only her bed clothes and a pair of plastic slippers. On Sunday she found herself at a leafy, run-down summer camp near Alagir in the Russian region of North Ossetia, just across the border from South Ossetia.

The residents of both regions are ethnic Ossetians, and have close family and cultural ties.

Dudayeva said she doesn't know what happened to relatives she left behind, including her 19-year-old brother.

"We can't contact them," she said, standing with her arms folded across her chest.

Many who fled still appeared to be in shock.

"The Georgians burned all of our homes," said one elderly woman, as she sat on a bench under a tree with three other white-haired survivors.

She seemed confused by the conflict. "The Georgians say it is their land," she said. "Where is our land, then? We don't know." - - - -
Read Full Report

NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By John Markoff - August 12, 2008
Weeks before bombs started falling on Georgia, a security researcher in suburban Massachusetts was watching an attack against the country in cyberspace.

Jose Nazario of Arbor Networks in Lexington noticed a stream of data directed at Georgian government sites containing the message: "win+love+in+Rusia."

Other Internet experts in the United States said the attacks against Georgia's Internet infrastructure began as early as July 20, with coordinated barrages of millions of requests - known as distributed denial of service, or D.D.O.S., attacks - that overloaded and effectively shut down Georgian servers.

Researchers at Shadowserver, a volunteer group that tracks malicious network activity, reported that the Web site of the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, had been rendered inoperable for 24 hours by multiple D.D.O.S. attacks. They said the command and control server that directed the attack was based in the United States and had come online several weeks before it began the assault.

As it turns out, the July attack may have been a dress rehearsal for an all-out cyberwar once the shooting started between Georgia and Russia. According to Internet technical experts, it was the first time a known cyberattack had coincided with a shooting war.

But it will likely not be the last, said Bill Woodcock, the research director of the Packet Clearing House, a nonprofit organization that tracks Internet traffic. He said cyberattacks are so inexpensive and easy to mount, with few fingerprints, they will almost certainly remain a feature of modern warfare.

"It costs about 4 cents per machine," Mr. Woodcock said. "You could fund an entire cyberwarfare campaign for the cost of replacing a tank tread, so you would be foolish not to."

Exactly who was behind the cyberattack is not known. The Georgian government blamed Russia for the attacks, but the Russian government said it was not involved. In the end, Georgia, with a population of just 4.6 million and a relative latecomer to the Internet, saw little effect beyond inaccessibility to many of its government Web sites, which limited the government's ability to spread its message online and to connect with sympathizers around the world during the fighting with Russia.

It ranks 74th out of 234 nations in terms of Internet addresses, behind Nigeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia and El Salvador. Cyberattacks have far less impact on such a country than they might on a more Internet-dependent nation, like Israel, Estonia or the United States, where vital services like transportation, power and banking are tied to the Internet.

In Georgia, media, communications and transportation companies were also attacked, according to security researchers. Shadowserver saw the attack against Georgia spread to computers throughout the government after Russian troops entered the Georgian province of South Ossetia. The National Bank of Georgia's Web site was defaced at one point. Images of 20th-century dictators as well as an image of Georgia's president, Mr. Saakashvili, were placed on the site. "Could this somehow be indirect Russian action? Yes, but considering Russia is past playing nice and uses real bombs, they could have attacked more strategic targets or eliminated the infrastructure kinetically," said Gadi Evron, an Israeli network security expert. "The nature of what's going on isn't clear," he said.

The phrase "a wilderness of mirrors" usually describes the murky world surrounding opposing intelligence agencies. It also neatly summarizes the array of conflicting facts and accusations encompassing the cyberwar now taking place in tandem with the Russian fighting in Georgia.

In addition to D.D.O.S. attacks that crippled Georgia's limited Internet infrastructure, researchers said there was evidence of redirection of Internet traffic through Russian telecommunications firms beginning last weekend. The attacks continued on Tuesday, controlled by software programs that were located in hosting centers controlled by a Russian telecommunications firms. A Russian-language Web site, stopgeorgia.ru, also continued to operate and offer software for download used for D.D.O.S. attacks.

Over the weekend a number of American computer security researchers tracking malicious programs known as botnets, which were blasting streams of useless data at Georgian computers, said they saw clear evidence of a shadowy St. Petersburg-based criminal gang known as the Russian Business Network, or R.B.N.

"The attackers are using the same tools and the same attack commands that have been used by the R.B.N. and in some cases the attacks are being launched from computers they are known to control," said Don Jackson, director of threat intelligence for SecureWorks, a computer security firm based in Atlanta.

He noted that in the run-up to the start of the war over the weekend, computer researchers had watched as botnets were "staged" in preparation for the attack, and then activated shortly before Russian air strikes began on Saturday.

The evidence on R.B.N. and whether it is controlled by, or coordinating with the Russian government remains unclear. The group has been linked to online criminal activities including child pornography, malware, identity theft, phishing and spam. Other computer researchers said that R.B.N.'s role is ambiguous at best. "We are simply seeing the attacks coming from known hosting services," said Paul Ferguson, an advanced threat researcher at Trend Micro, an Internet security company based in Cupertino, Calif. A Russian government spokesman said that it was possible that individuals in Russia or elsewhere had taken it upon themselves to start the attacks.

"I cannot exclude this possibility," Yevgeniy Khorishko, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, said. "There are people who don't agree with something and they try to express themselves. You have people like this in your country."

"Jumping to conclusions is premature," said Mr. Evron, who founded the Israeli Computer Emergency Response Team.
Read Full Report

Google explains why it never had maps of Georgia
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] > BITS Blog -  By Miguel Helft - August 12, 2008
My colleague John Markoff wrote earlier today about the barrage of cyber-attacks on Georgia's technology infrastructure. Others have covered the story as well.

But not all stories appear to be accurate. Several reports suggest that data from Georgia and the neighboring countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan has been stripped from Google Maps. One story says that "the relevant maps went blank as soon as fighting broke out," according to the Azerbaijan Press Agency.

Google says that's not so. While its Web maps shows only the outlines of those three countries - without roads or even the capital cities marked - Google says that the lack of information is not new.

"Google has not made any recent change to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in Google Maps," the company said in a statement. "We do not have local data for those countries and that is why local details such as landmarks and cities do not appear."

Browsing Google Maps, only a few countries appear to lack any data at all. They include small nations like Guyana and Suriname; countries that are largely close to foreigners, such as North Korea; and a few surprising ones, like South Korea and Argentina.

Interestingly, Google Earth, the company 3-D geographic visualization service, identifies many Georgian cities, and it allows users to zoom in to them close enough to see individual buildings. So Google Earth clearly has some "local data" on the countries that are blank on Google Maps.

Microsoft's rival mapping service, Virtual Earth, pinpoints dozens on cities in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Update: In a blog post late Tuesday, Google said it never filled in the maps of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan because it wasn't satisfied with the map data available. But after users complained that a little information is better than no information, the company said it is planning to start adding map data to countries that are currently blank.
Read Full Report

Wounded Reporter Returns from Georgia on Third Rescue Flight
ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Hana Levi Julian - August 13, 2008
A third rescue flight for Israelis and Jews in the combat zones of Georgia landed in Ben Gurion International Airport early Wednesday morning as a fragile ceasefire began to take hold in the volatile region. More than 500 people have stepped on to the tarmac in Israel since the first El Al plane arrived from Tbilisi Tuesday evening, bearing 210 returning Israelis and 30 new Georgian immigrants making a hasty move.

Among the returning Israelis was wounded journalist Tzadok Yehezkeli, who remains in serious but stable condition after suffering shrapnel wounds in a Russian attack that killed a Dutch journalist. . . .

Israel to Send Aid to Georgia
Israel is sending humanitarian aid to Georgia as the first part of a broader aid effort to be implemented soon. The shipment, which will be flown by the Georgian national airline, consists of two respirators and seven EKG monitors.

Government officials said in a statement the aid comes as a result of cooperation between the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Archimedes Global- Madanes Group. - - - -
Read Full Report

ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Gil Ronen - August 10, 2008
Most Jews living near the Georgia-Russia border have fled a Russian invasion, an advocacy group quoted by the JTA said. In a bulletin to its membership Friday, the National Conference on Soviet Jewry (NCSJ) said that according to its contacts, most of the Jewish community in Gori, an area near the conflict zone, have left for the capital Tbilisi.

The Jewish Agency has opened a crisis room that will help track down Jews in Georgia. After Russian jets bombed the city of Gori and oil pipelines in the region, the Foreign Ministry issued a warning against Israelis traveling to the region. Extra staff will be sent to the Israeli embassy in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, to help track down Israelis and Jews in the affected areas. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will hold a special discussion on the situation on Sunday.

Communication with the region was not possible throughout Saturday, officials said. Anyone seeking information on relatives can call the crisis room in Jerusalem at +972-2-6202202.

There are said to be some 200 Jews in Gori. The Jews there are one of the oldest communities in Georgia, tracing their migration into the country during the Babylonian captivity in the 6th century BCE. They have traditionally lived separately, not only from the surrounding Georgian people, but even from the Ashkenazi community in Tbilisi.

The community, which numbered about 100,000 as recently as the 1970s, has largely emigrated to Israel, the United States, the Russian Federation and Belgium. As of 2004, only about 13,000 Georgian Jews remain in Georgia. - - - -
Read Full Report

FORWARD - By Marissa Brostoff - August 14, 2008
When U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner organized an emergency meeting for the Georgian community in New York, he didn't hold it at a community center, church or school auditorium, but at an ornate synagogue on a residential block in Queens.

Of the 5,000 or so Georgians who live in the New York area, at least 3,000 are Jewish, and the Congregation of Georgian Jews may be the most permanent community structure that the Georgian �migr� population here has. Indeed, the synagogue's shiny black doorway has been opened to the entire Georgian community on many happier occasions before the grim meeting with Weiner on August 13, while Russian tanks rumbled through the streets of major Georgian cities.

The congregation's willingness to act as a de facto Georgian cultural center underscores the comfort that many Georgian Jews feel with their national identity. Though accustomed to being a tiny minority - in Georgia, a country of four and a half million, Jews now number around 10,000 . . . .

"Georgia is like Israel," said Mikhail Roketlishvili, who was a professor of economics in Georgia before coming to the United States and still has family in the old country. "She was attacked many times by different countries and she always stays alive."

Despite that conviction, Roketlishvili said that he is deeply worried about Georgia.

Other community members echoed his concerns at the meeting with Weiner, who represents a chunk of Queens where many Georgian Jews live, . . . .

On the most pressing level, they worried about loved ones still in Georgia, some of them unreachable since Russia invaded Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia last week. But the fear of Russian dominance over the region, as well as concerns about Georgia's relationship with Israel, an important ally, also loomed large.

"War is complicated, you cannot say one side is right," said Otar Sepiashvili, a film critic and television personality in Tbilisi before he moved to New York in 1996. "But Georgia is an independent country, and South Ossetia is part of the Georgian republic."

On occasion, their concern for their families and their nation seemed to come into conflict. "At first I thought, maybe Israel should send their aircrafts to bring the Jews for free," said Abraham Ashville, a rabbi at the Congregation of Georgian Jews. "But then I thought that would not be nice to our Georgian brothers." . . .

According to legend, Georgian Jewish roots in the Central Asian country stretch back as far as the Babylonian captivity in the 6th century BCE. Asked his opinion of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, Ashville replied with instinctive national pride.

"Our hearts go out to him because we spent 26 centuries in Georgia since the destruction of the First Temple," Ashville said.

In an essay on Georgian Jewry,historian Valery Dymshits suggested that this perspective is not unusual within the community.

"Georgian Jews are more integrated into the culture of their surroundings than their counterparts in any other community," Dymshits wrote in an essay accompanying an exhibit in a Russian museum. "Remarkably, Georgian Gentiles and Jews both boast that anti-Semitism has never existed in Georgia, although historical facts attest to the contrary." - - - -
Read Full Report

GLOBAL RESEARCH.ca : CENTER FOR RESEARCH ON GLOBALIZATION - By Robert Scheer - August 13, 2008

Ed. Note: Global Research can tend to have some extreme left wing and anti-Israel and anti-Zionist articles bordering on anti-Semitism. However, some of the viewpoints expressed by its authors are worth noting such as this. As always proceed prayerfully and with discernment.

Is it possible that this time the October surprise was tried in August, and that the garbage issue of brave little Georgia struggling for its survival from the grasp of the Russian bear was stoked to influence the U.S. presidential election?

Before you dismiss that possibility, consider the role of one Randy Scheunemann, for four years a paid lobbyist for the Georgian government who ended his official lobbying connection only in March, months after he became Republican presidential candidate John McCain's senior foreign policy adviser.

Previously, Scheunemann was best known as one of the neoconservatives who engineered the war in Iraq when he was a director of the Project for a New American Century. It was Scheunemann who, after working on the McCain 2000 presidential campaign, headed the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which championed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

There are telltale signs that he played a similar role in the recent Georgia flare-up. How else to explain the folly of his close friend and former employer, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, in ordering an invasion of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, an invasion that clearly was expected to produce a Russian counterreaction? It is inconceivable that Saakashvili would have triggered this dangerous escalation without some assurance from influential Americans he trusted, like Scheunemann, that the United States would have his back. Scheunemann long guided McCain in these matters, even before he was officially running foreign policy for McCain's presidential campaign.

In 2005, while registered as a paid lobbyist for Georgia, Scheunemann worked with McCain to draft a congressional resolution pushing for Georgia's membership in NATO. A year later, while still on the Georgian payroll, Scheunemann accompanied McCain on a trip to that country, where they met with Saakashvili and supported his bellicose views toward Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Scheunemann is at the center of the neoconservative cabal that has come to dominate the Republican candidate's foreign policy stance in a replay of the run-up to the war against Iraq. These folks are always looking for a foreign enemy on which to base a new Cold War, and with the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime, it was Putin's Russia that came increasingly to fit the bill.

Yes, it sounds diabolical, but that may be the most accurate way to assess the designs of the McCain campaign in matters of war and peace. There is every indication that the candidate's demonization of Russian leader Putin is an even grander plan than the previous use of Saddam to fuel American militarism with the fearsome enemy that it desperately needs.

McCain gets to look tough with a new Cold War to fight while Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, scrambling to make sense of a more measured foreign policy posture, will seem weak in comparison. Meanwhile, the dire consequences of the Bush legacy that McCain has inherited, from the disaster of Iraq to the economic meltdown, conveniently will be ignored. But the military-industrial complex, which has helped bankroll the neoconservatives, will be provided with an excuse for ramping up a military budget that is already bigger than that of the rest of the world combined. - - - -
Read Full Report