| October 6, 2008
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Gold will not deliver in the day of wrath |
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Zephaniah 1:18a Neither their silver nor their gold Will be able to deliver them On the day of the LORD'S wrath
James 5:3 Your gold and your silver have rusted; and their rust will be a witness against you and will consume your flesh like fire. It is in the last days that you have stored up your treasure!
Revelation 18:17a for in one hour such great wealth has been laid waste!'...
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Proverbs 13:7 There is one who pretends to be rich, but has nothing; Another pretends to be poor, but has great wealth.
Proverbs 16:16 How much better it is to get wisdom than gold! And to get understanding is to be chosen above silver.
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Matthew 6:24 "No one can serve two masters; for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth.
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| Shalom in Christ Jesus, |
As I work to complete this
latest alert, the NYSE is plummeting again following that of the European and
Asian markets. However, this trend should not at all surprise us and even if
things do turn for the better for a time and the world is again lulled into a
false sense of security know that a complete crash of the system will come
eventually as that is what the scripture tells us and scripture is truth.
I will not claim nor even
pretend to have any answers as to the full explanations of the causes that led
the world to this financial state of the solutions to get us out but I do
understand the world from a Biblical perspective and that of the financial
gurus and financial false prophets of are completely antithetical to it. As
Jesus said:
"No one can serve two
masters; for either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be
devoted to one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth. -
Matthew 6:24
And also:
And Jesus said to them,
"Render to Caesar the things that are Caesar's, and to God the things that
are God's." And they were amazed at Him. - Mark 12:17
This just does not mean "pay
your taxes" as many sometimes simply interpret it to mean but give the money
whose image Caesar, and Presidents and Kings are on to them, and give yourself
who is made in the image of God to Him.
The Bible depicts a last
days' Super Babylon where false religion and mammon worship are married and the
development of that state is already well underway. All that remains is what
the final rendering will be and who will be its head, which is the anti-Christ.
What I do know is that the
whole system is corrupt and evil and based on unequal weights and measures,
something the Lord hates. The Federal Reserve System is a privately owned and
its marriage with the US Government is nothing short of fascism. I would not
believe any of theses politicians who say they have the answers to fix this by
working with the same criminals who caused it in the first place.
Wilfred J. Hahn in the
October 2008 Eternal Value Review makes an poignant observation concerning the
developments that led up to the passing of the 700+ Billion dollar bailout
bill:
What we clearly
witnessed is that the world's most important people are its merchants. It
parallels that future time when, "Your merchants were the world's great men."
(Revelation 18:23) They run the world and represent the ultimate levers of
global power ... at least at the present time.
Those who have studied
societies of old know that it was not always so. In fact, this was rarely the
case. More usually priests and philosophers were consider to represent the most
elite rungs of society. If not, it was more likely the warriors. But merchants
and money men? These were considered the most base functions in many ancient
societies. The Bible also never provides an endorsement of societies that were
intensely commercialized, associating such attitudes with idolatry. The
maritime city-state of Tyre, the nexus of the then-known world trading system,
is given high profile in the Old Testament. It is never commended.
My prayer is that this
alert will help to give some insight as to what is taking place from both a
natural and spiritual perspective.
Scripture declares that
we are to pray for our leaders and while most of 'Churchianity' has sought to
take part in the worship of mammon along with the rest of the world I believe
we should be adding these global leaders who are clearly influenced by the
powers of spiritual darkenss to our prayer lists along with other leaders.
First of all, then, I
urge that entreaties and prayers, petitions and thanksgivings, be made on
behalf of all men, for kings and all who are in authority, so that we may lead
a tranquil and quiet life in all godliness and dignity. This is good and
acceptable in the sight of God our Savior, who desires all men to be saved and
to come to the knowledge of the truth.
-1 Timothy 2:1-4
I do not believe this
will change the outcome of things as the scripture has already declared what is
to come. However, a tranquil and quiet life in the midst of comming storms
before the resurrection and rapture of the Church in order to continue ministry
is a very good and something the remnant desperately needs before it becomes
too dark to work.
May the LORD bless you
and keep you,
BE/\LERT!
Scott Brisk
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Flying Scrolls and Baskets: A Vision of Today
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ETERNAL VALUE REVIEW - By Wilfred J. Hahn - ISSUE 3, VOLUME 10 - June 2007Remarkable for such a short chapter of only 11 verses, Zechariah 5 contains two separate but important visions of the endtimes. This text contains the 6th and 7th visions given to the prophet Zechariah. We first read of a giant scroll that is levitating in the air (verses 1-4). Right after this, the angel speaking to Zechariah shows him another vision. We then see a strange picture of an ephah (measuring basket) being carried by two women with the wings of storks. What do these visions mean? The vision of the ephah is relatively clear in its meaning. (See also Zechariah's Basket. A Vision of Today? www.eternalvalue.com). However, the meaning of the first picture of a flying scroll has been most problematic. . . . Just what does this scroll represent? It "enters" houses, it flies, consumes timbers and it is inordinately large. Most would agree that in only reading these four verses one is left perplexed and wondering. There simply are not many clues given that allow us to put this vision into its intended framework and prophetic timeframe. We, therefore, must read further: Then the angel that talked with me went forth, and said unto me, Lift up now thine eyes, and see what is this that goeth forth. And I said, What is it? And he said, This is an ephah that goeth forth. He said moreover, This is their resemblance through all the earth. And, behold, there was lifted up a talent of lead: and this is a woman that sitteth in the midst of the ephah. And he said, This is wickedness. And he cast it into the midst of the ephah; and he cast the weight of lead upon the mouth thereof. Then lifted I up mine eyes, and looked, and, behold, there came out two women, and the wind was in their wings; for they had wings like the wings of a stork: and they lifted up the ephah between the earth and the heaven. Then said I to the angel that talked with me, Whither do these bear the ephah? And he said unto me, To build it an house in the land of Shinar: and it shall be established, and set there upon her own base (verses 5-11, KJV).
Before delving into the meaning of this vision, we want to isolate the first of the key clues, which is found in verse 6 and says that the wickedness in the ephah is "their resemblance through all the earth." To who is "their" referring? The Amplified Bible brings out this point more clearly. And I said, What is it? [What does it symbolize?] And he said, 'This that goes forth is an ephah [-sized vessel for separate grains all collected together]. This, he continued, is the symbol of the sinners mentioned above and is the resemblance of their iniquity throughout the whole land (Zechariah 5:6. AMP).
Who are the "sinners" said to be "mentioned above"? They are the very same that either "sweareth falsely" or "stealeth": the two groups that are listed on opposite sides of the opened scroll in the first vision. We will come back to these two groups of people as we delve into the details of this vision more closely. However, for now, we have found the first of the important keys to this chapter. The two visions are clearly linked. Therefore, understanding the second vision is first necessary before approaching the first vision. The second key to which we must draw our attention is also clear and logical. As one vision follows the other, the sequence of the two prophetic visions is therefore significant. In other words, it will make sense that the events surrounding the second vision will follow that of the first, especially so as both are related. Holding on to these two keys, we can now launch our investigation into the meaning of these two visions. However, we need to start in reverse by examining the second vision first. Then proceeding, we can examine the first. Finally, that will lead us to the conclusion, which is the logical follow through to the order of the two visions. Here, it speaks about judgment and something being relocated to Shinar, an area inside today's Iraq. Just what is being moved, and to where? As did Zechariah, we will have to leave these answers to the conclusion. The Ephah ExplainedThe ephah that Zechariah saw lifted up toward heaven - shown with a lid of lead upon it to contain the iniquity - was a commercial measuring unit for dry goods. It is the approximate equivalent of about 8-9 bushels today. This unit of measure is mentioned more than twice as much as any other in the Bible (the hin, the homer or the seah, for example). Clearly, it was the key unit of commerce during the prophet's time, both for measurement and transport. If Zechariah's vision had been given in our day, God may have used the symbol of a 20-foot shipping container (the type that is transported on ocean-going ships and tractor trailers) or perhaps even a No. 10 cardboard box. Clearly, the ephah here is being used as the symbol for trade and commerce. Yet, more than this is being symbolized in this vision. More expressly, it indicts the iniquity and idolatry associated with commercialism - a worldwide orgy of commercialism, as we will yet show. The woman figure contained in the ephah speaks of idolatry or unfaithfulness as is often symbolized in the female form in prophetic language. All in all, it is a grave allegation. "This is wickedness," says the angel in no uncertain terms (verse 8). But, can we at this point determine the general time period during which the prophecies of Zechariah 5 play out? We can conclude that it definitely refers to the last days, most likely the Tribulation Period and the worldwide developments leading to this condition. Involved here is a global application and a divine intervention. Such apocalyptic events do not occur in prophecy until the 70th week or thereabout. Specifically the vision of the ephah being transported arguably applies to that time that the millennium period begins. Several more factors line up with this interpretation, which we will yet review. Now that we have the correct framework, timeframe, and sequence, the meaning of the first vision unfolds. We are now ready to examine this vision. And, as we will see, doing so provides further proofs for our interpretation of the second. Most of all, we must remember that we are dealing with the massive idolatry of commercialism in the last days. Read Full Report
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| The Economic Meltdown |
LAMB & LION MINISTRIES - By Dr. David R. Reagan - October 1, 2008Did you notice that the stock market collapse on September 29, 2008, totaled 777 points and occurred on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year? From my viewpoint, it appears to be a judgment on our nation that has the fingerprints of God all over it. Keep in mind that President George W. Bush was the first president to propose the establishment of a Palestinian state, and for the past month he has had his Secretary of State in the Middle East trying to force the Israelis to give up their heartland. The Word of God warns that nations who try to divide Israel in the end times will pay a terrible price. In Joel 3:2 the Lord says that He will "enter into judgment" against those nations that "have divided up My land." We have sold out Israel for Arab oil, and we are paying the price. But our treatment of Israel is not the only reason for this remedial judgment. Our worship of money is the other reason. In my book " America the Beautiful? The United States in Bible Prophecy" published in 2003, I presented several scenarios that could explain the absence of the United States in end time Bible prophecy. They included such things as an internal nuclear attack by terrorists, an external nuclear attack from another nation, and a societal collapse due to internal moral rot. The only positive scenario I could conceive was the destruction of our nation due to the Rapture of the Church. The very first scenario I offered was an economic one. I put it first because it was the one I felt was most probable. Here's what I wrote:
"The first thing that comes to mind is an economic catastrophe that will result from our out of control debt situation. The official outstanding debt of the U.S. government is currently 6.2 trillion dollars. That amounts to $21,540 per person. This debt is increasing at the rate of 1.1 billion per day! Private debt is even more horrendous. At the beginning of the 21st Century, there was a staggering $25.6 trillion of credit market debt outstanding in the U.S. That total represents a doubling of the debt burden since 1990. America's total debt, public and private (including state and local government) stands at around $32 trillion dollars! That's $115,322 per man, woman, and child. Amazingly, 52% of this debt was accumulated in the 1990s, a decade driven primarily by debt instead of productivity.
There is no way to escape the conclusion that America has become a debt junkie. We are living on money we do not have and will never have, and sooner or later the weight of this debt is going to collapse our economy. One irony is that we have killed 50 million babies who could have been in the work force today contributing to our economic health by producing goods and services and paying taxes.
I believe an unprecedented economic collapse is highly likely because money is the real god of America, and the true God of this universe is a jealous One who does not tolerate idolatry. God, by His very nature, is going to be compelled to destroy our false god."
We are a nation driven by greed. The mortgage debacle which has caused the current crisis is due first of all to greedy people wanting to live in houses they could not afford. They were serviced by greedy banks who were willing to grant loans they knew the people could not pay because the banks intended to flip the loans quickly, making a fast profit. And all the while, greedy politicians were willing to look the other way while their campaigns received money from the greedy lenders who they were supposed to be regulating. Republicans have run for office for years as fiscal conservatives, vowing to take good care of taxpayer's money. Yet, when they gained control of Congress, they fed at the money trough like ravenous hogs, and President Bush looked the other way, refusing to exercise his veto power. The result is that our national debt continued to skyrocket. Greed motivates big business, big labor, big sports, and big religion. Every aspect of our society is infected with it. Relentless advertising encourages people to live beyond their means by relying on credit cards. One sobering result of the current economic debacle is that it has made it almost impossible for John McCain to be elected, meaning that our nation is most likely going to receive the kind of leaders we deserve. We could well end up with the most liberal president in our history, one intent on expanding abortion to include infanticide, determined to retreat internationally from the threat and challenge of Islamic terrorism, and committed to packing our Supreme Court with ultra-liberals who will hold our Constitution in contempt. The Bible teaches that when a nation rebels against God, He will first raise up prophetic voices to call the nation to repentance. The Lord did that years ago here in America when he began to call for national repentance through voices like Dave Wilkerson who also warned us in graphic language of the consequences if we refused to repent. When prophetic voices are ignored, God always resorts next to remedial judgments, which increase in ferocity over time. We have experienced a whole series of such judgments, beginning with our loss of the Vietnam War. Other judgments have included such things as natural disasters, epidemics, crop failures, political corruption, crime, and immorality. According to Romans 1, what God does in times of national rebellion is lower the hedge of protection around the nation and allow evil to multiply. The biggest wake-up call occurred with the attacks on 9/11. But like a sleepy person, we just rolled over, hit the snooze alarm, and went back to sleep. The most disturbing thing about all this is that the Bible teaches that when a nation refuses to repent in response to prophetic voices and remedial judgments, a point will ultimately come when God will deliver the nation from judgment to destruction. Our nation currently appears to be on that threshold. Let us pray for our nation as we have never prayed before. Let each of us pray prayers like the one Daniel prayed in Daniel chapter 9, where he took the sins of the nation upon himself and asked for forgiveness. After all, all of us are responsible to one degree or another for the sins of our nation, either due to our participation in them or our unwillingness to speak out against them. Let us pray for God to show us grace by not giving us the kind of leaders we deserve. And let's pray for a national revival that will sweep many people into the Lord's kingdom before it is too late. Original Report |
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Financial Crisis: Blame the Jews--'Greedy, Rotten Slime Balls'
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ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu - October 3, 2008Jews are facing increasing blame for the financial crisis, according to anti-Semitic incitement surveyed by the Anti-Defamation League. Several internet sites charge that Jews control the government and finance as part of a "Jew world order" and are to blame for the economic turmoil, ADL said. The group's Center on Extremism noted that neo-Nazi and white supremacist websites also have spread hate messages. "We know from modern history that whenever there is a downturn in the global economy, there will be an upturn in the level of anti-Semitism and bigotry. That is what we are seeing now," said ADL national director Abe Foxman. "The age-old canards about Jews and money are always just beneath the surface. As we witnessed after 9/11, whenever there is trouble or uncertainty in the economy or world events, Jews become the scapegoats, and ugly anti-Semitic canards are given new life." "(Jews have) infiltrated Wall Street and Government and have ruined our country," one website stated. Other comments included, "What is a GS Jew? Goldman Sachs? Jews are greedy, rotten slime balls." "They (Jews) love money nothing else, no faith or religion can be so heartless to their victims." Forum website operators have tried to remove the hate material but have been overwhelmed by the amount of anti-Semitic messages. The white supremacist Stormfront website charges Jews with controlling the banking industry and holding power over governments. Original Report
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| US financial crisis causes spike in online anti-Semitism: monitor |
AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE - October 2, 2008 The US financial crisis has provoked an outpouring of anti-Semitism on the Internet, with Jews being blamed for the debacle on Wall Street, a monitoring group said on Thursday.
"The age-old canards about Jews and money are always just beneath the surface," said Abraham Foxman, the national director of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), which fights anti-semitism. . . .
The ADL said it had witnessed "a dramatic upsurge" in anti-Semitic statements on online discussion boards, and Internet service providers were struggling to delete them.
Blogs devoted to conspiracy theories as well as white supremacist and neo-Nazi websites have sought to exploit events on Wall Street and the subprime crisis to support their agendas, ADL said.
Referring to the demise of Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers, one poster on white supremacist website Stormfront wrote: "I would imagine the likelihood of the Fed etc bailing the company out depends largely to what degree it is Jewish owned," according to ADL. Read Full Report
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Ahmadinejad: Blame the Zionists for World Problems
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ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Hana Levi Julian - September 24, 2008The man that Israeli leaders consider to be the Number One threat to the existence of the State of Israel told the United Nations General Assembly Tuesday that 'Zionists" are the cause of the current financial disaster sweeping the world. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also told world leaders, "A few bullying powers have sought to put hurdles in the path of Iran's peaceful development of nuclear power. These are the same countries that possess stockpiles of nuclear arms that no one is monitoring." It is believed that Iran is developing a nuclear weapon of mass destruction despite Ahmadinejad's denials. The Iranian president accused European nations of "spending their dignities and resources on the occupations, crimes and threats of the Zionist network" and called for a referendum in Israel and the Palestinian Authority to create a government that would rule over a single state encompassing both Arabs and Jews. "Today, the Zionist regime is on a definite slope to collapse, and there is no way for it to get out of the cesspool created by itself and its supporters," he said. The Iranian president blamed "Zionists" for the financial woes in Europe and the US by controlling economic centers around the world in "a deceitful, complex and furtive manner." Nor did he spare the United States from his forecast of doom, declaring that it should mind its own business on the international scene. The "American empire in the world is reaching the end of its road, and its next rulers must limit their interference to their own borders," he said. . . . Peres: First Time UN Allows Official Anti-SemitismPresident Shimon Peres slammed Ahmadinejad's rant against "Zionist murderers", saying it constituted "the first time in the history of the United Nations that the head of a state is appearing openly and publicly with the ugly and dark accusations of the 'Protocols of the Elders of Zion.'" - - - - Read Full Report
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HOW IT HAPPEND?: Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Steven A. Holmes - September 30, 1999 In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.
The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.
Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.
In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.
''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''
Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.
In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.
''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.'' - - - - Read Full Report
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| The Monster That Ate Wall Street |
How 'credit default swaps'-an insurance against bad loans-turned from a smart bet into a killer. NEWSWEEK [Wash Post Group/Graham] - From the magazine issue dated Oct 6, 2008 - By Matthew Philips They're called "Off-Site Weekends"-rituals of the high-finance world in which teams of bankers gather someplace sunny to blow off steam and celebrate their successes as Masters of the Universe. Think yacht parties, bikini models, $1,000 bottles of Cristal. One 1994 trip by a group of JPMorgan bankers to the tony Boca Raton Resort & Club in Florida has become the stuff of Wall Street legend-though not for the raucous partying (although there was plenty of that, too). Holed up for most of the weekend in a conference room at the pink, Spanish-style resort, the JPMorgan bankers were trying to get their heads around a question as old as banking itself: how do you mitigate your risk when you loan money to someone? By the mid-'90s, JPMorgan's books were loaded with tens of billions of dollars in loans to corporations and foreign governments, and by federal law it had to keep huge amounts of capital in reserve in case any of them went bad. But what if JPMorgan could create a device that would protect it if those loans defaulted, and free up that capital?
What the bankers hit on was a sort of insurance policy: a third party would assume the risk of the debt going sour, and in exchange would receive regular payments from the bank, similar to insurance premiums. JPMorgan would then get to remove the risk from its books and free up the reserves. The scheme was called a "credit default swap," and it was a twist on something bankers had been doing for a while to hedge against fluctuations in interest rates and commodity prices. While the concept had been floating around the markets for a couple of years, JPMorgan was the first bank to make a big bet on credit default swaps. It built up a "swaps" desk in the mid-'90s and hired young math and science grads from schools like MIT and Cambridge to create a market for the complex instruments. Within a few years, the credit default swap (CDS) became the hot financial instrument, the safest way to parse out risk while maintaining a steady return. "I've known people who worked on the Manhattan Project," says Mark Brickell, who at the time was a 40-year-old managing director at JPMorgan. "And for those of us on that trip, there was the same kind of feeling of being present at the creation of something incredibly important."
Like Robert Oppenheimer and his team of nuclear physicists in the 1940s, Brickell and his JPMorgan colleagues didn't realize they were creating a monster. Today, the economy is teetering and Wall Street is in ruins, thanks in no small part to the beast they unleashed 14 years ago. The country's biggest insurance company, AIG, had to be bailed out by American taxpayers after it defaulted on $14 billion worth of credit default swaps it had made to investment banks, insurance companies and scores of other entities. So much of what's gone wrong with the financial system in the past year can be traced back to credit default swaps, which ballooned into a $62 trillion market before ratcheting down to $55 trillion last week-nearly four times the value of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. There's a reason Warren Buffett called these instruments "financial weapons of mass destruction." Since credit default swaps are privately negotiated contracts between two parties and aren't regulated by the government, there's no central reporting mechanism to determine their value. That has clouded up the markets with billions of dollars' worth of opaque "dark matter," as some economists like to say. Like rogue nukes, they've proliferated around the world and now lie hiding, waiting to blow up the balance sheets of countless other financial institutions.
It didn't start out that way. One of the earliest CDS deals came out of JPMorgan in December 1997, when the firm put into place the idea hatched in Boca Raton. It essentially took 300 different loans, totaling $9.7 billion, that had been made to a variety of big companies like Ford, Wal-Mart and IBM, and cut them up into pieces known as "tranches" (that's French for "slices"). The bank then identified the riskiest 10 percent tranche and sold it to investors in what was called the Broad Index Securitized Trust Offering, or Bistro for short. The Bistro was put together by Terri Duhon, at the time a 25-year-old MIT graduate working on JPMorgan's credit swaps desk in New York-a division that would eventually earn the name the Morgan Mafia for the number of former members who went on to senior positions at global banks and hedge funds. "We made it possible for banks to get their credit risk off their books and into nonfinancial institutions like insurance companies and pension funds," says Duhon, who now heads her own derivatives consulting business in London.
Before long, credit default swaps were being used to encourage investors to buy into risky emerging markets such as Latin America and Russia by insuring the debt of developing countries. Later, after corporate blowouts like Enron and WorldCom, it became clear there was a big need for protection against company implosions, and credit default swaps proved just the tool. By then, the CDS market was more than doubling every year, surpassing $100 billion in 2000 and totaling $6.4 trillion by 2004.
And then came the housing boom. As the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and Americans started buying homes in record numbers, mortgage-backed securities became the hot new investment. Mortgages were pooled together, and sliced and diced into bonds that were bought by just about every financial institution imaginable: investment banks, commercial banks, hedge funds, pension funds. For many of those mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps were taken out to protect against default. "These structures were such a great deal, everyone and their dog decided to jump in, which led to massive growth in the CDS market," says Rohan Douglas, who ran Salomon Brothers and Citigroup's global credit swaps division through the 1990s.
Soon, companies like AIG weren't just insuring houses. They were also insuring the mortgages on those houses by issuing credit default swaps. By the time AIG was bailed out, it held $440 billion of credit default swaps. AIG's fatal flaw appears to have been applying traditional insurance methods to the CDS market. There is no correlation between traditional insurance events; if your neighbor gets into a car wreck, it doesn't necessarily increase your risk of getting into one. But with bonds, it's a different story: when one defaults, it starts a chain reaction that increases the risk of others going bust. Investors get skittish, worrying that the issues plaguing one big player will affect another. So they start to bail, the markets freak out and lenders pull back credit.
The problem was exacerbated by the fact that so many institutions were tethered to one another through these deals. For example, Lehman Brothers had itself made more than $700 billion worth of swaps, and many of them were backed by AIG. And when mortgage-backed securities started going bad, AIG had to make good on billions of dollars of credit default swaps. Soon it became clear it wasn't going to be able to cover its losses. And since AIG's stock was one of the components of the Dow Jones industrial average, the plunge in its share price pulled down the entire average, contributing to the panic.
The reason the federal government stepped in and bailed out AIG was that the insurer was something of a last backstop in the CDS market. While banks and hedge funds were playing both sides of the CDS business-buying and trading them and thus offsetting whatever losses they took-AIG was simply providing the swaps and holding onto them. Had it been allowed to default, everyone who'd bought a CDS contract from the company would have suffered huge losses in the value of the insurance contracts they hadpurchased, causing them their own credit problems.
Given the CDSs' role in this mess, it's likely that the federal government will start regulating them; New York state has already said it will begin doing so in January. "Sadly, they've been vilified," says Duhon, who helped get the whole thing started with that Bistro deal a decade ago. "It's like saying it's the gun's fault when someone gets shot." But just as one might want to regulate street sales of AK-47s, there's an argument to be made that credit default swaps can be dangerous in the wrong hands. "It made it a lot easier for some people to get into trouble," says Darrell Duffie, an economist at Stanford. Although he believes credit default swaps have been "dramatically misused," Duffie says he still believes they're a very effective tool and shouldn't be done away with entirely. Besides, he says, "if you outlaw them, then the financial engineers will just come up with something else that gets around the regulation." As Wall Street and Washington wring their hands over how to prevent future financial crises, we can only hope they re-read Mary Shelley's "Frankenstein." Original Report |
| The $55 trillion question |
The financial crisis has put a spotlight on the obscure world of credit default swaps - which trade in a vast, unregulated market that most people haven't heard of and even fewer understand. Will this be the next disaster?FORTUNE MAGAZINE [Time, Inc./Time Warner] - By Nicholas Varchaver, senior editor and Katie Benner, writer-reporter - September 30, 2008As Congress wrestles with another bailout bill to try to contain the financial contagion, there's a potential killer bug out there whose next movement can't be predicted: the Credit Default Swap. In just over a decade these privately traded derivatives contracts have ballooned from nothing into a $54.6 trillion market. CDS are the fastest-growing major type of financial derivatives. More important, they've played a critical role in the unfolding financial crisis. First, by ostensibly providing "insurance" on risky mortgage bonds, they encouraged and enabled reckless behavior during the housing bubble. "If CDS had been taken out of play, companies would've said, 'I can't get this [risk] off my books,'" says Michael Greenberger, a University of Maryland law professor and former director of trading and markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "If they couldn't keep passing the risk down the line, those guys would've been stopped in their tracks. The ultimate assurance for issuing all this stuff was, 'It's insured.'" Second, terror at the potential for a financial Ebola virus radiating out from a failing institution and infecting dozens or hundreds of other companies - all linked to one another by CDS and other instruments - was a major reason that regulators stepped in to bail out Bear Stearns and buy out AIG (AIG, Fortune 500), whose calamitous descent itself was triggered by losses on its CDS contracts (see "Hank's Last Stand"). And the fear of a CDS catastrophe still haunts the markets. For starters, nobody knows how federal intervention might ripple through this chain of contracts. And meanwhile, as we'll see, two fundamental aspects of the CDS market - that it is unregulated, and that almost nothing is disclosed publicly - may be about to change. That adds even more uncertainty to the equation. "The big problem is that here are all these public companies - banks and corporations - and no one really knows what exposure they've got from the CDS contracts," says Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and former Morgan Stanley derivatives salesman who has been writing about the dangers of CDS and their ilk for a decade. "The really scary part is that we don't have a clue." Chris Wolf, a co-manager of Cogo Wolf, a hedge fund of funds, compares them to one of the great mysteries of astrophysics: "This has become essentially the dark matter of the financial universe." - - - - Full Report Posted on the Be Alert! Blog |
| Numbers racket: Why the economy is worse than we know |
HARPER'S MAGAZINE [Harper's Magazine Foundation] - By Kevin P. Phillips - May 2008Almost four decades have passed since the United States scrapped its last currency ties to precious metals. Our copper and nickel coinage still retains some metallic value, but not nearly enough for the purpose of currency tampering-the historic temptation of inflation-plagued or otherwise wayward governments, including, at times, our own. Instead, since the 1960s, Washington has been forced to gull its citizens and creditors by debasing official statistics: the vital instruments with which the vigor and muscle of the American economy are measured. The effect, over the past twenty-five years, has been to create a false sense of economic achievement and rectitude, allowing us to maintain artificially low interest rates, massive government borrowing, and a dangerous reliance on mortgage and financial debt even as real economic growth has been slower than claimed. If Washington's harping on weapons of mass destruction was essential to buoy public support for the invasion of Iraq, the use of deceptive statistics has played its own vital role in convincing many Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it actually is. The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy-the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the chief bellwether of inflation; the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which tracks the U.S. economy's overall growth; and the monthly unemployment figure, which for the general public is perhaps the most vivid indicator of economic health or infirmity. Not only do governments, businesses, and individuals use these yardsticks in their decision-making but minor revisions in the data can mean major changes in household circumstances-inflation measurements help determine interest rates, federal interest payments on the national debt, and cost-of-living increases for wages, pensions, and Social Security benefits. And, of course, our statistics have political consequences too. An administration is helped when it can mouth banalities about price levels being "anchored" as food and energy costs begin to soar. The truth, though it would not exactly set Americans free, would at least open a window to wider economic and political understanding. Readers should ask themselves how much angrier the electorate might be if the media, over the past five years, had been citing 8 percent unemployment (instead of 5 percent), 5 percent inflation (instead of 2 percent), and average annual growth in the 1 percent range (instead of the 3-4 percent range). We might ponder as well who profits from a low-growth U.S. economy hidden under statistical camouflage. Might it be Washington politicos and affluent elites, anxious to mislead voters, coddle the financial markets, and tamp down expensive cost-of-living increases for wages and pensions? Let me stipulate: the deception arose gradually, at no stage stemming from any concerted or cynical scheme. There was no grand conspiracy, just accumulating opportunisms. As we will see, the political blame for the slow, piecemeal distortion is bipartisan-both Democratic and Republican administrations had a hand in the abetting of political dishonesty, reckless debt, and a casino-like financial sector. To see how, we must revisit forty years of economic and statistical dissembling. A short history of "pollyanna creep"This apt phrase originated with John Williams, a California-based economic analyst and statistician who "shadows," as he puts it, the official Washington numbers. In a 2006 interview, Williams noted that although few Americans ever see the fine print, the government "always footnotes the changes and provides all the fine detail. Nonetheless, some of the changes are nothing short of remarkable, and the pattern over time is what I call Pollyanna Creep." Williams is one of the small group of economists and analysts who have paid any attention to the phenomenon. A few have pointed out the understatement of the Consumer Price Index-the billionaire bond manager Bill Gross has described it as an "haute con job," and Bloomberg columnist John Wasik has dismissed it as "a testament to the art of spin." In 2003, a University of Chicago economist named Austan Goolsbee (now a senior economic adviser to Barack Obama's presidential campaign) published an op-ed in the New York Times pointing out how the government had minimized the depth of the 2001-2002 U.S. recession, having "cooked the books" to misstate and minimize the unemployment numbers. Unfortunately, the critics have tended to train their axes on a single abuse, missing the broad forest of statistical misinformation that has grown up over the past four decades. - - - - Read Full Report |
| Frank's fingerprints are all over the financial fiasco |
Whose Mess, Congressman Frank? BOSTON GLOBE [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Jeff Jacoby, Globe Columnist - September 28, 2008 That's Barney Frank's story, and he's sticking to it. As the Massachusetts Democrat has explained it in recent days, the current financial crisis is the spawn of the free market run amok, with the political class guilty only of failing to rein the capitalists in. The Wall Street meltdown was caused by "bad decisions that were made by people in the private sector," Frank said; the country is in dire straits today "thanks to a conservative philosophy that says the market knows best." And that philosophy goes "back to Ronald Reagan, when at his inauguration he said, 'Government is not the answer to our problems; government is the problem.' "
In fact, that isn't what Reagan said. His actual words were: "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem." Were he president today, he would be saying much the same thing.
Because while the mortgage crisis convulsing Wall Street has its share of private-sector culprits -- many of whom have been learning lately just how pitiless the private sector's discipline can be -- they weren't the ones who "got us into this mess." Barney Frank's talking points notwithstanding, mortgage lenders didn't wake up one fine day deciding to junk long-held standards of creditworthiness in order to make ill-advised loans to unqualified borrowers. It would be closer to the truth to say they woke up to find the government twisting their arms and demanding that they do so - or else.
The roots of this crisis go back to the Carter administration. That was when government officials, egged on by left-wing activists, began accusing mortgage lenders of racism and "redlining" because urban blacks were being denied mortgages at a higher rate than suburban whites.
The pressure to make more loans to minorities (read: to borrowers with weak credit histories) became relentless. Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act, empowering regulators to punish banks that failed to "meet the credit needs" of "low-income, minority, and distressed neighborhoods." Lenders responded by loosening their underwriting standards and making increasingly shoddy loans. The two government-chartered mortgage finance firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, encouraged this "subprime" lending by authorizing ever more "flexible" criteria by which high-risk borrowers could be qualified for home loans, and then buying up the questionable mortgages that ensued.
All this was justified as a means of increasing homeownership among minorities and the poor. Affirmative-action policies trumped sound business practices. A manual issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston advised mortgage lenders to disregard financial common sense. "Lack of credit history should not be seen as a negative factor," the Fed's guidelines instructed. Lenders were directed to accept welfare payments and unemployment benefits as "valid income sources" to qualify for a mortgage. Failure to comply could mean a lawsuit.
As long as housing prices kept rising, the illusion that all this was good public policy could be sustained. But it didn't take a financial whiz to recognize that a day of reckoning would come. "What does it mean when Boston banks start making many more loans to minorities?" I asked in this space in 1995. "Most likely, that they are knowingly approving risky loans in order to get the feds and the activists off their backs . . . When the coming wave of foreclosures rolls through the inner city, which of today's self-congratulating bankers, politicians, and regulators plans to take the credit?"
Frank doesn't. But his fingerprints are all over this fiasco. Time and time again, Frank insisted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were in good shape. Five years ago, for example, when the Bush administration proposed much tighter regulation of the two companies, Frank was adamant that "these two entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not facing any kind of financial crisis." When the White House warned of "systemic risk for our financial system" unless the mortgage giants were curbed, Frank complained that the administration was more concerned about financial safety than about housing.
Now that the bubble has burst and the "systemic risk" is apparent to all, Frank blithely declares: "The private sector got us into this mess." Well, give the congressman points for gall. Wall Street and private lenders have plenty to answer for, but it was Washington and the political class that derailed this train. If Frank is looking for a culprit to blame, he can find one suspect in the nearest mirror.
Jeff Jacoby can be reached at jacoby@globe.com. Original Report |
| Lawmaker Accused of Fannie Mae Conflict of Interest |
FOX NEWS [News Corporation/Murdoch] - By Bill Sammon - October 3, 2008 WASHINGTON - Unqualified home buyers were not the only ones who benefitted from Massachusetts Rep. Barney Frank's efforts to deregulate Fannie Mae throughout the 1990s.
So did Frank's partner, a Fannie Mae executive at the forefront of the agency's push to relax lending restrictions.
Now that Fannie Mae is at the epicenter of a financial meltdown that threatens the U.S. economy, some are raising new questions about Frank's relationship with Herb Moses, who was Fannie's assistant director for product initiatives. Moses worked at the government-sponsored enterprise from 1991 to 1998, while Frank was on the House Banking Committee, which had jurisdiction over Fannie.
Both Frank and Moses assured the Wall Street Journal in 1992 that they took pains to avoid any conflicts of interest. Critics, however, remain skeptical.
"It's absolutely a conflict," said Dan Gainor, vice president of the Business & Media Institute. "He was voting on Fannie Mae at a time when he was involved with a Fannie Mae executive. How is that not germane?
"If this had been his ex-wife and he was Republican, I would bet every penny I have - or at least what's not in the stock market - that this would be considered germane," added Gainor, a T. Boone Pickens Fellow. "But everybody wants to avoid it because he's gay. It's the quintessential double standard."
A top GOP House aide agreed.
"C'mon, he writes housing and banking laws and his boyfriend is a top exec at a firm that stands to gain from those laws?" the aide told FOX News. "No media ever takes note? Imagine what would happen if Frank's political affiliation was R instead of D? Imagine what the media would say if [GOP former] Chairman [Mike] Oxley's wife or [GOP presidential nominee John] McCain's wife was a top exec at Fannie for a decade while they wrote the nation's housing and banking laws."
Frank's office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Frank met Moses in 1987, the same year he became the first openly gay member of Congress.
"I am the only member of the congressional gay spouse caucus," Moses wrote in the Washington Post in 1991. "On Capitol Hill, Barney always introduces me as his lover."
The two lived together in a Washington home until they broke up in 1998, a few months after Moses ended his seven-year tenure at Fannie Mae, where he was the assistant director of product initiatives. According to National Mortgage News, Moses "helped develop many of Fannie Mae's affordable housing and home improvement lending programs."
Critics say such programs led to the mortgage meltdown that prompted last month's government takeover of Fannie Mae and its financial cousin, Freddie Mac. The giant firms are blamed for spreading bad mortgages throughout the private financial sector.
Although Frank now blames Republicans for the failure of Fannie and Freddie, he spent years blocking GOP lawmakers from imposing tougher regulations on the mortgage giants. In 1991, the year Moses was hired by Fannie, the Boston Globe reported that Frank pushed the agency to loosen regulations on mortgages for two- and three-family homes, even though they were defaulting at twice and five times the rate of single homes, respectively.
Three years later, President Clinton's Department of Housing and Urban Development tried to impose a new regulation on Fannie, but was thwarted by Frank. Clinton now blames such Democrats for planting the seeds of today's economic crisis.
"I think the responsibility that the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was president, to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Clinton said recently.
Bill Sammon is FOX News' Washington Deputy Managing Editor. Original Report |
| Agency's '04 Rule Let Banks Pile Up New Debt |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Stephen Labaton - October 2, 2008 . . . . Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control. The agency's failure to follow through on those decisions also explains why Washington regulators did not see what was coming.
On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.
They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments. Those funds could then flow up to the parent company, enabling it to invest in the fast-growing but opaque world of mortgage-backed securities; credit derivatives, a form of insurance for bond holders; and other exotic instruments.
The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary.
A lone dissenter - a software consultant and expert on risk management - weighed in from Indiana with a two-page letter to warn the commission that the move was a grave mistake. He never heard back from Washington. . . .
The proceeding was sparsely attended. None of the major media outlets, including The New York Times, covered it.
After 55 minutes of discussion, which can now be heard on the Web sites of the agency and The Times, the chairman, William H. Donaldson, a veteran Wall Street executive, called for a vote. It was unanimous. The decision, changing what was known as the net capital rule, was completed and published in The Federal Register a few months later. - - - - Full Report Posted on the Be Alert! Blog
Original Report
* Emphasis Added |
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Hyperinflation Special Report
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SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS - By John Williams - Issue Number 41 - April 8, 2008- Inflationary Recession Is in Place
- Banking Solvency Crisis Has Opened First Phase of Monetary Inflation
- Hyperinflationary Depression Remains Likely As Early As 2010
OverviewThe U.S. economy is in an intensifying inflationary recession that eventually will evolve into a hyperinflationary great depression. Hyperinflation could be experienced as early as 2010, if not before, and likely no more than a decade down the road. The U.S. government and Federal Reserve already have committed the system to this course through the easy politics of a bottomless pocketbook, the servicing of big-moneyed special interests, and gross mismanagement. The U.S. has no way of avoiding a financial Armageddon. Bankrupt sovereign states most commonly use the currency printing press as a solution to not having enough money to cover their obligations. The alternative would be for the U.S. to renege on its existing debt and obligations, a solution for modern sovereign states rarely seen outside of governments overthrown in revolution, and a solution with no happier ending than simply printing the needed money. With the creation of massive amounts of new fiat (not backed by gold) dollars will come the eventual complete collapse of the value of the U.S. dollar and related dollar-denominated paper assets. What lies ahead will be extremely difficult and unhappy times for many. Ralph T. Foster, in his "Fiat Paper Money" (see recommended further reading at the end of this issue), closes his book's preface with a particularly poignant quote from a 1993 interview of Friedrich Kessler, a law professor at Harvard and University of California Berkeley, who experienced the Weimar Republic hyperinflation: "It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. You cannot imagine the rapidity with which the whole thing happened. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty. You could buy nothing with your paper money." This Special Report updates and expands upon the three-part Hyperinflation Series that began with the December 2006 SGS Newsletter, exploring: (1) the causes and background of the evolving hyperinflation and great depression; (2) why circumstances will differ from the deflationary Great Depression of the 1930s; (3) implications for politics and the financial markets; (4) considerations for individuals and businesses. The broad outlook has not changed during the last year. More generally, though, developments in the economy and the financial markets have been in line with projections and have tended to confirm the unfolding disaster. Specifically, the current inflationary recession has gained much broader recognition, while the still-unfolding banking solvency crisis has confirmed the Fed's and the U.S. government's willingness to spend whatever money they have to create in order to keep the financial system from imploding. While the dollar has taken a heavy hit - down roughly 20% against key currencies from last year - selling of the U.S. currency still has been far short of the outright dollar dumping that eventually will lead to flight to safety outside of the U.S. dollar. That event is important to the shorter-term timing of the pending hyperinflation. Regular readers may recognize text from last year's Series, as well as material from various SGS newsletters, but such is the nature of revisions to prior material. Points that may be repeated from earlier newsletters are done so in sequence to help build the arguments explaining the unfolding crisis. Great thanks are extended to the numerous subscribers who offered ideas, questions and materials that have been incorporated in this report. Read Full Report
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| America's economy risks the mother of all meltdowns |
FINANCIALTIMES of LONDON [Pearson Group,UK] - By Martin Wolf - February 19, 2008 "I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth - lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy." Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.
That used to be Mr Greenspan's view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University's Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.
Recently, Professor Roubini's scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is "a rising probability of a 'catastrophic' financial and economic outcome"**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: "A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe."
Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 - yes, 12 - steps to financial disaster.
Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.
Step two would be further losses, beyond the $250bn-$300bn now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60 per cent of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had "reckless or toxic features", argues Prof Roubini. Goldman Sachs estimates mortgage losses at $400bn. But if home prices fell by more than 20 per cent, losses would be bigger. That would further impair the banks' ability to offer credit.
Step three would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth. The "credit crunch" would then spread from mortgages to a wide range of consumer credit.
Step four would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150bn writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.
Step five would be the meltdown of the commercial property market, while step six would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.
Step seven would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.
Step eight would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a "fat tail" of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in "credit default swaps", which insure such debt. The losses could be $250bn. Some insurers might go bankrupt.
Step nine would be a meltdown in the "shadow financial system". Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.
Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.
Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.
Step 12 would be "a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices".
These, then, are 12 steps to meltdown. In all, argues Prof Roubini: "Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1,000bn and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe." This, he suggests, is the "nightmare scenario" keeping Ben Bernanke and colleagues at the US Federal Reserve awake. It explains why, having failed to appreciate the dangers for so long, the Fed has lowered rates by 200 basis points this year. This is insurance against a financial meltdown.
Is this kind of scenario at least plausible? It is. Furthermore, we can be confident that it would, if it came to pass, end all stories about "decoupling". If it lasts six quarters, as Prof Roubini warns, offsetting policy action in the rest of the world would be too little, too late.
Can the Fed head this danger off? In a subsequent piece, Prof Roubini gives eight reasons why it cannot***. (He really loves lists!) These are, in brief: US monetary easing is constrained by risks to the dollar and inflation; aggressive easing deals only with illiquidity, not insolvency; the monoline insurers will lose their credit ratings, with dire consequences; overall losses will be too large for sovereign wealth funds to deal with; public intervention is too small to stabilise housing losses; the Fed cannot address the problems of the shadow financial system; regulators cannot find a good middle way between transparency over losses and regulatory forbearance, both of which are needed; and, finally, the transactions-oriented financial system is itself in deep crisis.
The risks are indeed high and the ability of the authorities to deal with them more limited than most people hope. This is not to suggest that there are no ways out. Unfortunately, they are poisonous ones. In the last resort, governments resolve financial crises. This is an iron law. Rescues can occur via overt government assumption of bad debt, inflation, or both. Japan chose the first, much to the distaste of its ministry of finance. But Japan is a creditor country whose savers have complete confidence in the solvency of their government. The US, however, is a debtor. It must keep the trust of foreigners. Should it fail to do so, the inflationary solution becomes probable. This is quite enough to explain why gold costs $920 an ounce.
The connection between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers, for the US and the rest of the world. The US public sector is now coming to the rescue, led by the Fed. In the end, they will succeed. But the journey is likely to be wretchedly uncomfortable. *A Coming Recession in the US Economy? July 17 2006, www.rgemonitor.com; **The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown, February 5 2008; ***Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not, February 8 2008 Original Report Here
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| Feds accused of gold-price manipulation |
Alleged objective to 'conceal the mismanagement of the U.S. dollar' WORLDNETDAILY - By Jerome Corsi - January 25, 2008 The Wall Street Journal has agreed to publish a full-page ad in which the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee charges the U.S. government surreptitiously utilizes gold reserves to engage in international swaps and other market manipulations.
"Anybody Seen Our Gold?" is the title of the ad, which alleges U.S. gold reserves held at depositories such as Fort Knox and West Point may have been seriously depleted. GATA asserts U.S. gold reserves are being shipped overseas to settle complex transactions utilized by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to suppress the price of the precious metal.
"The objective of this manipulation is to conceal the mismanagement of the U.S. dollar so that it might retain its function as the world's reserve currency," the ad copy reads in a pre-publication version GATA provided to WND.
The U.S. Treasury denies the claim, insisting the stock is accounted for regularly.
GATA's chairman, William J. Murphy III, told WND his group was willing to pay the Wall Street Journal's cost of $264,000 to run the ad "to get the message out that the U.S. enters world markets without public disclosure to prop up the dollar and depress the price of gold."
GATA cites as evidence the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee reports dating back to Jan. 31, 1995, showing the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund had undertaken gold swaps.
GATA, a non-profit 501 headquartered in Manchester, Conn., further asserts the federal government strategy to manipulate the price of gold has begun to fail.
"Gold's recent rise toward $900 per ounce shows that the price suppression scheme is faltering," the GATA ad reads. "When it is widely understood how central banks have been suppressing gold, its price may rise to $3,000 or $5,000 an ounce or more."
"The gold reserves of the United States have not been independently audited for half a century," the ad charges.
The U.S. Treasury disagrees.
"While the entire gold stock is not physically re-counted in any one year, over a period of years, by our continuous sampling process, the entire stock has been counted, and is effectively re-inventoried," Rich Delmar, counsel to Treasury's inspector general, told WND in an e-mail.
Delmar explained that the annual Office of Inspector General audits of mint facilities involves a physical inspection of certain vaults, which are subject to a 100-percent bar count and assaying. At the end of the inspection, each vault is sealed. - - - - Read Full Report |
Bernanke: Federal Reserve caused Great Depression |
Fed chief says, 'We did it. --- very sorry, won't do it again' WORLDNETDAILY - By David Kupelian - March 19, 2008 Despite the varied theories espoused by many establishment economists, it was none other than the Federal Reserve that caused the Great Depression and the horrific suffering, deprivation and dislocation America and the world experienced in its wake. At least, that's the clearly stated view of current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The worldwide economic downturn called the Great Depression, which persisted from 1929 until about 1939, was the longest and worst depression ever experienced by the industrialized Western world. While originating in the U.S., it ended up causing drastic declines in output, severe unemployment, and acute deflation in virtually every country on earth. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, "the Great Depression ranks second only to the Civil War as the gravest crisis in American history."
What exactly caused this economic tsunami that devastated the U.S. and much of the world?
In "A Monetary History of the United States," Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman along with coauthor Anna J. Schwartz lay the mega-catastrophe of the Great Depression squarely at the feet of the Federal Reserve.
Here's how Friedman summed up his views on the Fed and the Depression in an Oct. 1, 2000, interview with PBS: - - - - Read Full Report
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Maybe We Should Blame God for the Subprime Mess
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TIME [Time Warner] - By David Van Biema - October 3, 2008Has the so-called Prosperity gospel turned its followers into some of the most willing participants - and hence, victims - of the current financial crisis? That's what a scholar of the fast-growing brand of Pentecostal Christianity believes. While researching a book on black televangelism, says Jonathan Walton, a religion professor at the University of California at Riverside, he realized that Prosperity's central promise - that God will "make a way" for poor people to enjoy the better things in life - had developed an additional, dangerous expression during the subprime-lending boom. Walton says that this encouraged congregants who got dicey mortgages to believe "God caused the bank to ignore my credit score and blessed me with my first house." The results, he says, "were disastrous, because they pretty much turned parishioners into prey for greedy brokers." Others think he may be right. Says Anthea Butler, an expert in Pentecostalism at the University of Rochester in New York: "The pastor's not gonna say, 'Go down to Wachovia and get a loan,' but I have heard, 'Even if you have a poor credit rating, God can still bless you - if you put some faith out there [that is, make a big donation to the church], you'll get that house or that car or that apartment.' " Adds J. Lee Grady, editor of the magazine Charisma: "It definitely goes on, that a preacher might say, 'If you give this offering, God will give you a house.' And if they did get the house, people did think that it was an answer to prayer, when in fact it was really bad banking policy." If so, the situation offers a look at how a native-born faith built partially on American economic optimism entered into a toxic symbiosis with a pathological market. Although a type of Pentecostalism, Prosperity theology adds a distinctive layer of supernatural positive thinking. Adherents will reap rewards if they prove their faith to God by contributing heavily to their churches, remaining mentally and verbally upbeat and concentrating on divine promises of worldly bounty supposedly strewn throughout the Bible. Critics call it a thinly disguised pastor-enrichment scam. Other experts, like Walton, note that for all its faults, the theology can empower people who have been taught to see themselves as financially or even culturally useless to feel they are "worthy of having more and doing more and being more." In some cases the philosophy has matured with its practitioners, encouraging good financial habits and entrepreneurship. But Walton suggests that a decade's worth of ever easier credit acted like a drug in Prosperity's bloodstream. "The economic boom '90s and financial overextensions of the new millennium contributed to the success of the Prosperity message," he wrote recently on his personal blog as well as on the website Religion Dispatches. And not positively. "Narratives of how 'God blessed me with my first house despite my credit' were common. Sermons declaring 'It's your season to overflow' supplanted messages of economic sobriety," and "little attention was paid to ... the dangers of using one's home equity as an ATM to subsidize cars, clothes and vacations." - - - - Read Full Report
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| Short-selling' church leaders accused of failing to practise what they preach |
THE TIMES of LONDON [News Corporation/Murdoch] - By Ruth Gledhill, Religion Correspondent - September 26, 2008The Church of England was accused last night of having used short-selling to maximise profit on a £5 billion investment hours after its archbishops criticised banking practices. After the call from the archbishops of Canterbury and York for tighter regulation of the markets, the liberal think-tank Ekklesia said that the Church was implicated in stock market speculation. It said that in 2006 the Church Commissioners, which manages the Church of England's investments, set up a currency hedging programme against a fall in the value of sterling, effectively short-selling the pound to guard against rises in other currencies. It also criticised the Church for its shareholdings in oil and mining companies. On Wednesday the Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu, branded the traders who cashed in on falling share prices in the troubled bank HBOS as "bank robbers" and "asset strippers". In an interview with The Times, he said that people had become enslaved to the god of money, and that leaving the market to regulate itself was like leaving a pack of hyenas in charge of a herd of cattle. He called for a judicial inquiry into the financial services industry. The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, accepted that making a profit was a legitimate goal, "if not a morally supreme" one, but called in an article in The Spectator for more regulation of the financial world. Jonathan Bartley, the co-director of Ekklesia, said: "The archbishops should be extremely careful when attacking City 'bank robbers' for short-selling and speculation. Amongst the billions of pounds that the Church currently invests in property and shares are hundreds of millions invested in oil and mining companies. "The Church has benefited significantly from the speculation that has underpinned rising oil and commodity prices such as gold and copper. The Church has substantial shareholdings in banks and a stated aim of making an excess profit of 5 per cent each year, over and above the rate of inflation, on its investments." The Church Commissioners' annual report last year revealed that its average return over the past decade was 9.5 per cent per year. Mr Bartley continued: "By its own admission it has also hedged against a fall in the value of sterling, and set up a currency hedging programme in 2006, effectively short-selling sterling in the currency markets." He suggested that the Church should invest in institutions such as cooperatives, friendly societies and housing associations, and to work for the good of society, accepting a slightly lower profit. "The £5 billion investments that the Church currently holds provide a valuable opportunity for the Church to put its money where its mouth is, and use its wealth for good," Mr Bartley said. The Church denied last night that it indulged in any dubious practices and said that its investment decisions were informed by its Ethical Investment Advisory Group. - - - - Full Report Posted on the Be Alert! BlogOriginal Report |
| Dinars for Dollars: Arabs Buying Out Collapsing Western Banks |
ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu - July 16, 2008 First it was Citibank. Now it's Barclay's and New York City's Chrysler Building skyscraper. Muslim Arabs are buying out collapsing Western banks and businesses and gaining growing international power, but some Arab investors are worried their investments may go down the drain with the American economy.
The current financial crisis in the United States has spread to other countries because of a massive debt that was not backed by enough real and liquid collateral. Banks and businesses gasping for financial breath are up for sale at basement prices, but no one is certain if the basement is the bottom.
"The possibility remains that more Arab white knights will be sought to rescue ailing financial institutions," wrote Dr. Mohammed Ramady, a former banker and Visiting Associate Professor at the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals in the Financial Adviser magazine. He said he fears that Arab investors will end up chasing their investments with more money to keep them from going under. . . .
The purchase of American banks by foreigners has been blocked in the past by security and political considerations, but the barriers have come down, wrote Dr. Ramady. "How long this lasts is only a matter of guesswork, as once again, the specter of foreign takeovers of 'national' symbols will be hard to accept," he added.
The latest American symbol to go down the drain is the Anheuser-Busch beer brewer. The Times of London wrote, "The weak dollar and weak economy mean the United States is up for sale. Japs are conquering the car industry. Arabs just bought part of the Chrysler Building. Jeez, they even tried to buy the ports a while back. Whatever next? A hijab on the Statue of Liberty?"
In a more serious vein, The Australian editor-at-large Paul Kelly wrote earlier this month that the foreign investments, headed by Arabs, signal a major change in international power.
"The energy, financial and political woes that grip the U.S. signal a decisive shift in world power, mocking the liberal delusion that Barack Obama or John McCain can return American prestige and power to its pre-Bush year 2000 nirvana," he wrote. "There is no such nirvana. There is instead a new reality: the greatest transfer of income in human history [and] the rise of a new breed of wealthy autocracies that cripple U.S. hopes of dominating the global system and demands on the U.S. to make fresh compromises in a world where power is rapidly being diversified."
Flynt Leverett, former director of Middle East Affairs on the National Security Council, thinks that "the international economic position of the United States has deteriorated substantially since the new millennium."
In the current issue of The American Interest, Gal Luft, from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, warned that OPEC's Arab countries could potentially "buy the Bank of America with two months' worth of production and General Motors with six days' worth."
The growing Arab takeover of American businesses continues unhindered. The giant Dow Chemical company and a Kuwaiti company have agreed to set up world headquarters for their joint petrochemical venture in Dearborn, Michigan, which has a high concentration of American Arabs.
The Abu Dubai Investment Council years ago entered the international media business, buying a nine percent stake in Reuters News Agency, which usually reports with an open anti-Israeli bias.
However, Abu Dhabi's' director of international affairs, Yousef al Otaiba, has reassured American officials that its purchase of Citibank will not be used to exert political pressure on the U.S. He wrote the Treasury Department, "It is important to be absolutely clear that the Abu Dhabi government has never and will never use its investment organizations or individual investments as a foreign policy tool." Read Full Report |
| Muslim Terrorists May Be Trying To Sink the Dollar |
ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu - June 27, 2008 Mujahideen Muslim terrorists may be behind the sinking American dollar as part of a campaign to cripple the American economy, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reported. The media watch group, which specializes in tracking Arabic language websites, said that postings on websites the past two years reflect a move toward waging an economic war against the United States.
Mujahideen terrorist groups that operate in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries "have come to the conclusion that it is financial, rather than military, losses that will prompt the U.S. to change its policies in the Middle East and elsewhere," according to MEMRI.
An article recently posted in Sada Al-Jihad (Echo of Jihad) magazine and posted on several Muslim websites, discusses the September 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S. as having influenced the decline in the dollar. It also cited the cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan as draining the American economy.
Another recent posting stated, "The dollar can expect two additional blows that will break its back. . . [namely] the announcement of the return of the [religious rule of the] Caliphate. . ." and the reinstatement of the gold standard in international monetary trade. It urged Mujahideen "to get rid of American dollars" before an "imminent" terrorist attack that "will put an end to the so-called United States of America and destroy its economy completely."
MEMRI concluded, "Given that it is highly atypical for Al-Qaeda to give prior warning of its attacks, the message is probably an attempt to pressure Muslims to sell dollars, in order to generate pessimism in the dollar market and thus accelerate the drop in its value." Original Report Here |
| Report: Emirates calls on GCC countries to depeg currencies from US dollar |
ASSOCIATED PRESS - July 8, 2008 A newspaper in the United Arab Emirates says the tiny Gulf state's government is lobbying neighboring countries to depeg their currencies from the US dollar to curb inflation.
The National, which is owned by the Abu Dhabi ruling family, reported Sunday that the UAE is calling on all six Gulf Cooperation Council member states to "rethink" their monetary policy amid soaring inflation in the oil-rich region.
It cited an internal report by Abu Dhabi's Department of Planning and Economy.
The GCC members are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman. All of their currencies are pegged to the dollar except Kuwait, which depegged its currency, the dinar, from the dollar in May 2007 in favor of a basket of currencies. Original Report Here |
The Financial Crisis and Israel |
Israel Finance Minister: Economic Slowdown Ahead ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Hana Levi Julian - October 2, 2008 Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On is warning that Israel is almost certain to face an economic slowdown in the coming year. Read Full Report
Shekel Doing Well Despite U.S. Economic Woes ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Malkah Fleisher - September 17, 2008 The shekel is continuing its sharp appreciation against leading currencies, breaking new thresholds despite major losses on Wall Street, the US government bailout of insurance giant American International Group (AIG), the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holding, and the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. . . . The shekel has depreciated less than the other currencies which have been affected by the US dollar's downturn in international markets, and it is expected to continue to appreciate against the dollar, but Israeli banks are nonetheless poised to minimize any damage that may be caused to the Israeli currency. . . . 'It can't happen here' Yet Dr. Yitzhak Klein, Director of the Israel Policy Center and writer for the INN blog "A State of the Nation" says that Israelis should not worry about experiencing a similar economic disaster. "It can't happen here, the kind of meltdown of the financial sector that's taking place in the States," Klein said. "Banking regulation in Israel is excellent. - - - - Read Full Report
Financial Crisis in America Threatens Israel's Stability ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Hana Levi Julian - September 15, 2008 The venerated securities firm of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. announced early Monday morning on its website it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, stunning Wall Street and rattling financial markets around the world. Not least among them was the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which opened with sharp losses as it echoed the news. Lehman was one of the first international investment banks to open its doors in the State of Israel, and businesses across the country are going to be affected by what is taking place on Wall Street. - - - - Read Full Report
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| Tel Aviv Meets Wall Street in Stock Exchange Pact |
ARUTZ SHEVA (Israeli National News) - By Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu - July 1, 2008 The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) and its New York counterpart (NYSE) have signed a new cooperative agreement to boost cross listing of trading. More than 100 Israeli companies, mostly in the high-tech industry, are currently traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ and other exchanges. The agreement with NYSE is aimed at encouraging more Israeli companies to list their securities in New York and Europe as well as on the TASE in order to attract international investors.
"The signing of the (agreement) with NYSE Euronext is another very important step forward in the globalization of the Israeli capital market," said Ester Levanon, chief executive of the TASE.
The move comes on the heels of similar agreements signed last year with the London stock exchange and NASDAQ and enables the TASE to promote Israeli companies to investors. Israel's strong and stable economic growth have helped put Israel on the road to be upgraded from an emerging market to a developed market, opening up the country to more institutional investors looking for stable investments. - - - - Read Full Report |
The Road to a Common Currency |
'Amero coming within decade' Strategist expects currency changes as Canadian dollar matches greenback WORLDNETDAILY - By Jerome R. Corsi - October 5, 2007 BankIntroductions.com, a Canadian company that specializes in global banking strategies and currency consulting, is advising clients that the amero may be the currency of North America within the next 10 years. "The amero would compete against other regional currency blocks," BankIntroductions.com says. "At present, with the Canadian dollar approaching par, more talk for an amero currency unit will become popular in Canada." The company says that with the successful implementation of NAFTA, "the one dragging component for the amero will be Mexico, but in time this will change." "Implementation of the amero currency may actually give Mexico an economic boost, thus helping to alleviate Mexican immigration pressures into the United States for those Mexicans seeking financial gain," BankIntroductions.com advises. "The amero one day may well be circulating throughout North America." Matt Bell, president of BankIntroductions.com, told WND in an e-mail to "feel free to quote our currency research on Canada. Our general opinion on the amero stands as stated." - - - WND also reported the African Union is moving down the path of regional economic integration, with the African Central Bank planning to create the "Gold Mandela" as a single African continental currency by 2010. The Council on Foreign Relations also has supported regional and global currencies designed to replace nationally issued currencies. In an article in the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, entitled "The End of National Currency," CFR economist Benn Steil asserted the dollar is a temporary currency. - - - - Read Full Report
South America eyes common currency THOMSON FINANCIAL NEWS [Thomson-Reuters] - May 26, 2008 BRASILIA - South America is thinking of creating a common currency and a central bank along the lines of those in the European Union's euro-zone, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday. The idea is a logical next step following the signing last Friday of a teaty creating a Union of South American States that aims to promote joint regional customs and defense policies, Lula said during his weekly radio broadcast. 'Many things still haven't been realized. We are now going to create a Bank of South America. We are going to move forward so in the future we'll have a single central bank, a common currency,' he said. But, he added: 'This is a process. It won't be something that happens quickly.' Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela all signed up to the UNASUR treaty creating the regional union during a ceremony in Brasilia last Friday. The entity's goal is to bring together two trade blocs within South America, Mercosur and the Andean Community, and to integrate the region. Brazil is also pushing for a regional defense council that could be used as a forum to settle inter-regional disputes as well as formulate joint policies. - - - - Original Report Here
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| Signs of the times: Golden calf helps Hirst auction hit £70m |
FINANCIALTIMES of LONDON [Pearson Group,UK] - By Peter Aspden, Arts Correspondent - September 16, 2008An experimental sale of new works by Damien Hirst at Sotheby's auction house last night surpassed expectations when it raised more than £70m, above its high estimate of £62m. Buyers appeared unfazed by fears over the global banking system as they spent freely. The top lot was "The Golden Calf", a 600kg bullock whose hooves and horns are cast in solid 18-carat gold, which sold for £10.3m, a record for the artist at auction. - - - - Read Full ReportAlso:Rebuilding Babel?See Article Here |
| More Posted on the Blog... |
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Seven Days That Shook Wall Street A look back at the historic-and often scary-events that changed the U.S. financial system forever
See it Here: Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
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