| April 1, 2008
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Behold, a black horse |
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| The Third Seal?
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand.And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine."
[Picture: Million Dollar Boy: A young man on his way to buy a loaf of bread in Zimbabwe where bread is over one million dollars a loaf due to inflation. This is a country where everyone is a 'Millionaire' but it is worthless. Indeed, a sign of the times.] |
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| Shalom In Christ Jesus, |
This alert complies a number of articles regarding the skyrocketing global rise in food prices. This is something the world as a whole as never encountered, but all the pieces are now falling into place for a worldwide famine to occur.
Also, note that natural famine in scripture is always a type of famine for the word of God and indeed there is a global famine for the hearing of God's word today.
Please note however that things may still turn around for the short term and 'the people of this world' will again be fooled into trusting the 'things of this world'. --- Maybe so, maybe not.
Nonetheless, the signs of the times are clearly showing themselves and wisdom is crying out in the streets for anyone with ears to hear.
My prayer is that this alert will serve as as a wake up call to even one who is still slumbering. Just to pull one out of the fire would be a wonderful blessing, please pass this along to any who you think may have ears to hear the real truth of these last days.
BE/\LERT!
Scott Brisk |
| Notes |
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Please forgive our error in the name of the movie 'Fitna' that we incorrectly titled 'Finta' in the last alert. |
Food Inflation Today and the Black Horse of the Apocalypse |
ETERNAL VALUE REVIEW - By Wilfred J. Hahn - ISSUE 1, VOLUME 11 - February 2008
" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, 'A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!'" (Revelation 6:6, NIV) - - -
Described here is rampant food inflation.Following the first two seals whichintroduce the white and red horses-these signifying the consecutive stages of a globalized peace and prosperity and war and strife-comes this picture of soaring prices for the two agricultural products of wheat and barley.
It is a timely topic to explore if for no other reason than the world again appears to be on the verge of a period of major food inflation. This may not be overly obvious to North Americans just yet, however, the precursors to this global development can hardly be ignored. Basic food prices in North America have surely surged of late. For example, raw milk futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have risen 80% over the past year. Wheat prices have doubled from a year ago, while corn prices have more than doubled since the start of 2006. Similar price spikes can be observed across a wide range of agricultural products. Other countries are experiencing even higher surges. In China, pork prices are triple that of a year ago, and in Russia most food items tracked by the Statistics Committee (Rosstat) rose 30% in one month (August 2007).
Granted, these current day events may not be any more significant than other similar occurrences of virulent food inflation in world history. Yet, all the same, the unprecedented global trends being witnessed today do beckon the question: Could this vision in Revelation 6 be connected with developments already evident on the world scene today? We'll seek to answer this question.
Wheat and Barley
In the pursuit of an answer, let's first delve into the interpretation of the prophecy found in Revelation 6:6. Here we see that a "quart" of wheat costs the equivalent of a day's wage-denarion" in the original Greek-as does 3 quarts of barley.
Actually, quite a few Bible translations obscure the meaning of this prophecy as they employ unhelpful interpretations for the Greek word "denarion." This refers to the denarius which was the most common Roman coin in earlier New Testament times. Though this currency had experienced some minor inflation by the time that Apostle John recorded the Book of Revelation, as best as we can tell it was still considered the equivalent of a laborer's daily wage. The Bible itself confirms this. Earlier, in Matthew 20:2, we read of a vineyard owner who "[---] agreed to pay them a denarius for the day" to work for him.
Just how expensive are these grain prices? Here we can make some calculations that will provide a perspective relative to the living standards of our day.
Let's begin with wages. The average annual income in the world today (in US terms) is estimated at $7,439 (a figure including both high- and low-income countries). Assuming a 5-day work week, that would amount to $33 per work day.1 Were the "black horse" to appear today, just how much would it cost to buy either one quart of wheat or three of barley? As a rough estimate, about 150 times higher than the price of unprocessed grain today.
Next, let's turn our attention to the food adequacy of this amount of grain. How long would that much grain sustain a person? In the original Greek, the term interpreted as a "quart" is the ancient dry-goods measure, the "choinix." This measure, though sources are somewhat imprecise on its size, is probably equivalent to 1.2 dry quarts or 1.3 liters.
Therefore, assuming that the average household in the world today would have approximately 1 worker per a household of 3.5 people (which indeed is representative of the average household size worldwide), then could one measure of wheat or three quarts of barley sustain a household of this size? Barely. Both wheat and barley have approximately the same caloric content (about 90 calories per ounce). And, as there are roughly 40 ounces in one "choinix," one day's wages could acquire at maximum 3600 calories of wheat or 10,800 calories of barley. However, let's not forget that there are more days in a week than there are workdays. Making that adjustment, that would allow only 2750 calories of wheat per day, for example.
According to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) the average person in the world today consumes a little over 2700 calories per day. For illustration, assuming that humankind maintains this same level of consumption, it appears that 100% of a laborer's daily wages and more would be required to supply a household with sufficient food at that prophesied time. Even in this case, a family could only eat barley-the coarser grain-and not wheat. Barley was considered the poor man's flour in Old Testament times. It was more difficult to process because of its hard husk and didn't have quite the same favorable baking properties as wheat. Today, barley is the most important feed for livestock.
Having made these comparisons to conditions of our day, we can well understand why the voice in Revelation 6:6 said " --- do not damage the oil and the wine!" These items would surely be high-priced foods during that time. Also, this may explain why meat is not mentioned. Meat is much more expensive than grain. After all, some livestock-for example poultry and cattle-are grain-fed, requiring as much as three and more pounds of grain to produce a pound of meat.
Next and finally, we focus in on another strange feature of this prophecy. Wheat during that time is three times as expensive as barley. Today, if you were to transact on the Winnipeg commodity exchange, wheat and barley prices would be broadly similar-about $200 per metric tonne. Why then will wheat prices soar to 3 times that of barley at the time of the third seal? Again, we can only speculate. Barley usually yields about 50% more in bushel terms per acre than wheat. However, it is also a hardier cereal grain that can grow under more diverse conditions than wheat. Perhaps growing conditions at that future time will favor barley. We will explore some other possibilities.
Reasons for Food Inflation
Why will the affordability of food decline at the time of the black horse? There may be any possible number of causes. Such details will remain speculative. However, we can certainly point to reasons why agricultural prices may be soaring today, although these may not be relevant at all to that future time.
For example, among the possible factors may be changing weather patterns, the impact of rising petroleum prices (agriculture uses a high amount of energy through transportation, fertilizer and pesticides) the rapid increase in the wealth of Asia (China particularly) and its related higher demand for more expensive foods such as meat, and more general supply/demand problems. It is a fact that the amount of arable land in the world continues to decline on a per-capita basis. Moreover, the days of high gains in agricultural crop yields through the use of fertilizers and pesticides seem to be over.
There could be yet other reasons unique to our time. Some financial market observers speculate that a huge speculative boom could occur in the prices of "things" (i.e. gold or any type of commodity) as people flee from plunging currencies. The world appears ripe for such a phenomenon. Certainly, countries around the world continue to debase their currencies and the world's wealth skew may be more extreme today than ever before in history.
Also, some analysts today are predicting imminent disaster for world agriculture, arguing that the reckless development of genetically modified foods, the massive reduction of bio-diversity through the extinction of thousands of natural plant food varieties already witnessed over the past century, and the exhaustion of farmland through erosion and toxicity, makes for certain troubles in the future. These are all factors unique to our era --- never having occurred before.
All in all, the modern world that man has made is assuredly ripe for disaster if not judgment.
Endtime Agricultural Conditions
While all the above-mentioned trends and developments are surely relevant to our day, we are best to rely on the Bible for our explanations. Revelation 6:4 does indicate that a disruption of peace occurs just prior to the point that the black horse comes on the scene. At that prior time, "[---] another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make men slay each other. To him was given a large sword." The aftermath of widespread war on earth could certainly disrupt food prices.
What else does the Bible say about agricultural conditions during the last days? We know that food production will not be entirely mechanized in the last days, though presently it sure may seem to be headed into this direction. Jesus Christ said: "That is how it will be at the coming of the Son of Man. Two men will be in the field; one will be taken and the other left. Two women will be grinding with a hand mill; one will be taken and the other left." Here we see that in some parts of the world, at least, people will be processing food the old fashioned way-namely, with milling stones. Also, many of the catastrophes of the Tribulation period are sure to have an impact on agriculture (darkening skies, hail, poisoned waters----etc.) although these events may occur somewhat later.
Importantly, a prophecy of James sheds crucial light on the agricultural conditions of the last days. "Look! The wages you failed to pay the workmen who mowed your fields are crying out against you. The cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord Almighty." (James 5:4-5, NIV) Here is indicated that agricultural conditions of the world are a key feature of a worldwide state of economic injustice in the last days. The "harvesters" and those that "mowed"-this latter word better translated as cutters and gatherers of crops, not lawn groomers-are oppressed and underpaid.
It is a condition that already exists today. The "rich" of the world (basically, almost everyone living in the Western, industrialized nations of the world today) are benefiting from the low wages of many agricultural laborers around the world. Many workers labor for pennies or a few dollars a day picking coffee beans or harvesting sugar cane, for example. In one way or another, all of the high-income nations subsidize their agricultural industries. While this is certainly supportive of farmers in those nations, it also has the side-effect of seriously disadvantaging laborers in lower-income countries that cannot afford similar subsidies yet are dependent upon exporting agricultural products.
Even independent farmers living in North America might be included in that number of harvesters "crying out" against wealthy interests as they increasingly become oppressed by large corporate "pharming" enterprises, the chemical companies who are buying up "patent rights" to living plants and marketing genetically-modified plants today ---to mention just a few of their challenges.
A Global Condition
The conditions mentioned in Revelation 6:6 are worldwide in scope. The whole context of the revelation dealing with the four horsemen of the apocalypse, does indicate that the entirety of earth will be involved. In that context, it is crucial to recognize that agricultural products, such as barley and wheat, are staple commodities traded around the world today.
We now live in a world were almost all resources, minerals and agricultural products have been "commoditized." That means that prices of such items are set on a worldwide basis-for the rich and poor countries alike. That's one of the effects of the last-day globalization that has swept the world. Price trends of commodities affects the entire world today. It is a condition that has really only come about in the last 100 to 150 years. Yet, here we see that the prophecies of the Bible are in fact aligned with such a globalized, commoditized world.
Thoughts to Ponder
The prophecy of the black horse clearly outlines a time of severe economic troubles. For whatever reason-soaring food prices, collapsing wages or supply- keeping a family fed during that time will require 100% and more of a household's income. For reference, consider that food costs for households in the highincome nations of the world are in the range of 10% of income, whereas it is not uncommon to be as high as 30-40% for households in lower-income countries such as China or Nigeria.
All in all, the conditions described in Revelation 6:6 will represent quite a change in diet and consumer conditions. Today, as much as 40% of the world's food (in terms of caloric content) comes from meats and oils, not just cereal grains. One can imagine that mortgage payments and the Cable-TV bill will go unpaid. Such conditions seem unthinkable to our supposedly advanced world of today.
Of course, we can only speculate as to when that future day will arrive --- when wheat prices will rise to three times that of barley. Yet, we can easily identify a number of developments in the world today that could plausibly lead to such conditions in the future, though "the faithful" will not be on earth to experience this "rider on the black horse." We can surely recognize another "sign of the times" in relation to this prophecy. The kind of global conditions described here are only possible in our day and not before.
As we well know, Christ's return for His own is signless. It may be the very next moment, or indeed perhaps yet decades and more in the future. Yet, all the same, we are implored to discern the general "season" of the last days.
It would not be too speculative to say that that season is now here. After all, a landed Israel is again on the scene. Moreover, as ordinary observers, we can certainly see processes and developments underway in the world today that can and will intersect with the future literal fulfillment of many of the prophecies recorded in the Bible.
"See, I have told you ahead of time." (Matthew 24:25) "Now learn this lesson from the fig tree: As soon as its twigs get tender and its leaves come out, you know that summer is near. Even so, when you see all these things, you know that it is near, right at the door." (Matthew 24:32)
Notes:
1. World Bank, Development Indicators, 2005 |
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A Global Need for Grain That Farms Can't Fill |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By David Streitfeld - March 9, 2008
LAWTON, N.D. - Whatever Dennis Miller decides to plant this year on his 2,760-acre farm, the world needs. Wheat prices have doubled in the last six months. Corn is on a tear. Barley, sunflower seeds, canola and soybeans are all up sharply.
"For once, there's great reason to be optimistic," Mr. Miller said.
But the prices that have renewed Mr. Miller's faith in farming are causing pain far and wide. A tailor in Lagos, Nigeria, named Abel Ojuku said recently that he had been forced to cut back on the bread he and his family love.
"If you wanted to buy three loaves, now you buy one," Mr. Ojuku said.
Everywhere, the cost of food is rising sharply. Whether the world is in for a long period of continued increases has become one of the most urgent issues in economics.
Many factors are contributing to the rise, but the biggest is runaway demand. In recent years, the world's developing countries have been growing about 7 percent a year, an unusually rapid rate by historical standards.
The high growth rate means hundreds of millions of people are, for the first time, getting access to the basics of life, including a better diet. That jump in demand is helping to drive up the prices of agricultural commodities.
Farmers the world over are producing flat-out. American agricultural exports are expected to increase 23 percent this year to $101 billion, a record. The world's grain stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in decades.
"Everyone wants to eat like an American on this globe," said Daniel W. Basse of the AgResource Company, a Chicago consultancy. "But if they do, we're going to need another two or three globes to grow it all."
In contrast to a run-up in the 1990s, investors this time are betting - as they buy and sell contracts for future delivery of food commodities - that scarcity and high prices will last for years.
If that comes to pass, it is likely to present big problems in managing the American economy. Rising food prices in the United States are already helping to fuel inflation reminiscent of the 1970s.
And the increases could become an even bigger problem overseas. The increases that have already occurred are depriving poor people of food, setting off social unrest and even spurring riots in some countries.
In the long run, the food supply could grow. More land may be pulled into production, and outdated farming methods in some countries may be upgraded. Moreover, rising prices could force more people to cut back. The big question is whether such changes will be enough to bring supply and demand into better balance.
"People are trying to figure out, is this a new era?" said Joseph Glauber, chief economist for the United States Department of Agriculture. "Are prices going to be high forever?"
Competition for Acres
At a moment when much of the country is contemplating recession, farmers are flourishing. The Agriculture Department forecasts that farm income this year will be 50 percent greater than the average of the last 10 years. The flood of money into American agriculture is leading to rising land values and a renewed sense of optimism in rural America.
"All of a sudden farmers are more in control, which is a weird position for them," said Brian Sorenson of the Northern Crops Institute in Fargo, N.D. "Everyone's knocking at their door, saying, 'Grow this, grow that.' "
Mr. Miller's family has worked the Great Plains for more than a century. One afternoon early last month, he turned on the computer in his combination office and laundry room to see what commodity prices were up to.
"Oh, my goodness, look at that," Mr. Miller said. Barley was $6.40 a bushel, approaching a price that would tempt him to plant more. Soybeans were $12.79 a bushel, up from $8.50 in August.
The frozen earth outside was only a few weeks from coming to life, but Mr. Miller was happily uncertain about what to plant. Last year, the decision was easy for Mr. Miller and everyone else: prices of corn were high because of new government mandates for production of ethanol, a motor fuel. This year, so many crops look like good bets, and there is so little land on which to plant them.
"I'm debating between spring wheat, durum wheat, canola, malting barley, confection sunflowers, oil sunflowers, soybeans, flax and corn," Mr. Miller said.
The biggest blemish on this winter of joy is that farmers' own costs are rising rapidly. Expenses for the diesel fuel used to run tractors and combines and for the fertilizer essential to modern agriculture have soared. Mr. Miller does not just want high prices; he needs them to pay his bills.
Until recently, he could expect around $3 a bushel for his wheat - far less than his parents and grandparents received, when inflation is taken into account. Consumption in the United States was dropping as Americans shunned carbohydrates. The export market, while healthy, faced competition.
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Why egg prices are cracking budgets |
Demand is high, supplies are tight and soaring corn prices are driving up the cost of chicken feed. Guess who pays
CHICAGO TRIBUNE [Tribune Company] - By Mike Hughlett, Tribune reporter - March 23, 2008
NORTH MANCHESTER, Ind. - The massive henhouses plopped into a cornfield here resonate with the clucking of hundreds of thousands of birds. Across the U.S., cash registers beep, ringing up eggs for more than $2 a dozen.
To Bob Krouse, head of the firm that owns the veritable chicken city, those hens are part of the soundtrack to a golden era of record egg industry profits.
For consumers, well, let's just say the Easter Bunny shelled out a lot more green this year: Retail egg prices have been increasing at rates not seen in at least 30 years.
Egg eaters are feeling the pain of soaring chicken feed prices, which egg producers are successfully passing down to the grocery aisle. What's more, the egg industry's normal response to good times, which is to feverishly add capacity until prices drop like a rock, hasn't materialized. That could keep supplies tight and prices high well into 2009.
Producers are wary of adding hens for myriad reasons. They fear overexpanding, an expensive mistake they've made before. Meanwhile, the costs of expansion are rising and credit is tight. Even the tricky issue of animal welfare is in play: Californians will vote this year on banning cages that are standard in the industry, spooking some egg producers.
"It's a perfect storm that's going on, no doubt about it," said Scott Beyer, a poultry expert at Kansas State University.
Food prices generally have been rising at an annual rate of nearly 5 percent in recent months, a pace not seen since the early 1990s. Milk prices jumped 11 percent last year; chicken prices 6 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But neither can match eggs: Prices soared 29 percent in 2007, a pace that has continued this year. Consumers don't like it, but eggs are such a basic item that they don't appear to be changing their habits.
Take Kathy Hayes of Itasca. Yes, she made a special trip to a Dominick's supermarket this week to take advantage of an egg deal: Buy $10 worth of groceries, and a dozen eggs that normally cost $1.89 could be had for 99 cents. But Hayes said she hasn't cut down on buying eggs. "Eggs are just a staple."
Feed fuels egg prices
A key reason for the egg price escalation is a surge in commodity prices. Corn has shot to record highs as more of the U.S. crop is used for ethanol, not food, economists say. And corn is the main ingredient in chicken feed, which comprises about 60 percent of an eggmaker's costs.
At Midwest Poultry Services, Krouse's firm, feed costs are about 70 percent higher than they were a year ago. Krouse said he's never seen feed cost so much, and he's been in the egg trade since 1982, when he went to work for Mentone, Ind.-based Midwest Poultry.
Indiana ranks third in U.S. egg production, after Iowa and Ohio. Midwest Poultry, which also has a big facility in Loda, Ill., is the nation's 12th-largest egg producer, according to Egg Industry, a trade publication.
This past week, Midwest's North Manchester facility, the Hi-Grade Egg Producers plant, was buzzing with the Easter rush. The two to three weeks before the holiday are the most intense, volume-wise, of the year. "It's like a fire drill," Krouse said. "It's a massive amount of eggs we have to get out."
Even on an ordinary day, the North Manchester plant is no slouch: Its 2.5 million chickens churn out more than 2 million eggs. While the plant has some cage-free production, most eggs made here originate in nine cavernous henhouses filled with "battery" cages. Krouse describes a state-of-the-art house as "a giant machine with chickens in it."
Indeed, cages stacked 10 high create a giant wall of white leghorn hens. Their pink-crowned heads poke out from their pens, as they peck at feed in a trough. Eggs drop from their cages to a conveyor. Manure drops to another conveyor belt. The place is a din of clucking and clicking-the sound of wings beating against steel wire. This Easter, business is about as good as it can get for egg producers like Midwest. "We've never seen profits like this," Krouse said, echoing sentiments in the egg industry's trade press.
It's a welcome departure from the grim times of a couple of years ago, when the highly cyclical egg industry was deep in the red. The problem then was a common one: Producers overexpanded in 2004 and a glut of eggs hit the market.
"The industry has always been one where as soon as egg prices got good, everybody went nuts and put in new facilities and then the market would crash," said Tom Lippi, general manager at Chore-Time, a Milford, Ind.-based maker of egg production equipment.
But that's not happening this time around. The industry's largest producers have been a lot more "levelheaded," wary of overexpanding and swinging back into the red, he said. "They are being very cautious."
Expansion difficult
Kansas State's Beyer said that expanding production is increasingly more costly and difficult. Permits for new facilities are harder to get as regulators have increased scrutiny of environmental impacts. Credit markets are tight, making financing more difficult. And most expansions these days mean adopting a newer production method that costs twice as much as the old one.
Krouse is in the midst of investing in the newer technology, though for improving efficiency, not for the sake of expanding Midwest's output. In Manchester, he's converting Henhouse No. 1 from the older "A-Frame" configuration to the newer "stacked deck" system. He has done the same with several other henhouses already.
Both A-frames and stacked decks involve piling pens atop each other. But the latter has a conveyor system that allows for manure to be collected efficiently, dried quickly and largely deodorized. In A-frames, which make up at least 80 percent of U.S. henhouses, manure simply accumulates in a giant pile on the henhouse floor, reeking in warm weather and creating a haven for flies.
Also, while the bulk of the manure in an A-frame drops to the floor, some inevitably falls from chickens on higher levels onto birds caged below. The industry's own animal welfare guidelines call for producers to avoid such spillover as they upgrade their henhouses.
Under fire from animal rights groups, United Egg Producers, the industry's trade group, adopted a set of animal welfare guidelines in 2002 and has been phasing them in. The bulk of the nation's eggmakers adhere to the guidelines.
One of the code's key provisions is to give birds more room, gradually increasing a hen's cage space from about 50 square inches, an industry norm in 2002, to 67 square inches by April.
To do that, producers reduce the number of hens: For instance, Midwest is gradually cutting back from eight birds per cage to six or even five, depending on cage size. The cumulative effect is big-tens of millions of hens have been effectively taken out of production, which has put more upward pressure on egg prices. But it hasn't allayed animal rights activists.
"To the extent they are giving animals a little more space, that is a definite improvement," said Paul Shapiro, head of the Humane Society of the United States' factory farming initiative. Still, "it's hard to find an example of more egregious cruelty" to animals than the battery cage system, he said.
The egg industry says its welfare code is scientifically sound and that caged egg production is considerably less costly than cage-free, a plus for consumers. It is set to battle the Humane Society over the issue in California this November.
If the measure passes, the industry fears bans would spread to other states. Fear over such bans is another reason for producers to put off expanding capacity, keeping upward pressure on prices, say egg executives and industry observers.
"It's the uncertainty of investing back into the business," Krouse said.
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Surging costs of groceries hit home |
Bread, eggs, milk prices up sharply
BOSTON GLOBE [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Robert Gavin - March 12, 2008
American families, already pinched by soaring energy costs, are taking another big hit to household budgets as food prices increase at the fastest rate since 1990.
After nearly two decades of low food inflation, prices for staples such as bread, milk, eggs, and flour are rising sharply, surging in the past year at double-digit rates, according to the Labor Department. Milk prices, for example, increased 26 percent over the year. Egg prices jumped 40 percent.
Escalating food costs could present a greater problem than soaring oil prices for the national economy because the average household spends three times as much for food as for gasoline. Food accounts for about 13 percent of household spending compared with about 4 percent for gas.
Rising food prices can be particularly corrosive to consumer confidence because people are so frequently exposed to the cost increases. "It's the biggest risk we face economically, and it might be the thing that does us in," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research Corp. in New York. "There's nothing really worse than having a job, making money, and forking most of it over just so you can have the same amount of food. You're running in place, and it really weighs on you."
As with energy, higher food costs cut into discretionary income that buys everything from cars to computers to movie tickets and drives the consumer-based US economy. Falling home values and a faltering stock market have battered consumer confidence, spurring a retrenchment in spending that is contributing to recent job losses and pulling the economy toward recession.
Many analysts expect consumers to keep paying more for food. Wholesale food prices, an indicator of where supermarket prices are headed, rose last month at the fastest rate since 2003, with egg prices jumping 60 percent from a year ago, pasta products 30 percent, and fruits and vegetables 20 percent, according to the Labor Department.
"No retailer can absorb cost increases indefinitely," said Laura Sen, president of BJ's Wholesale Club, the Natick chain of discount warehouse stores. "Given what we are seeing, all retail channels need to raise prices, and from our observations, are doing so." - - - -
Read Full Report |
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A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories |
| NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Keith Bradsher - January 19, 2008
KUANTAN, Malaysia - Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asia's largest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs. And here in Malaysia, brand-new factories built to convert vegetable oil into diesel sit idle, their owners unable to afford the raw material.
This is the other oil shock. From India to Indiana, shortages and soaring prices for palm oil, soybean oil and many other types of vegetable oils are the latest, most striking example of a developing global problem: costly food.
The food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, based on export prices for 60 internationally traded foodstuffs, climbed 37 percent last year. That was on top of a 14 percent increase in 2006, and the trend has accelerated this winter.
In some poor countries, desperation is taking hold. Just in the last week, protests have erupted in Pakistan over wheat shortages, and in Indonesia over soybean shortages. Egypt has banned rice exports to keep food at home, and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs.
According to the F.A.O., food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen.
"The urban poor, the rural landless and small and marginal farmers stand to lose," said He Changchui, the agency's chief representative for Asia and the Pacific.
A startling change is unfolding in the world's food markets. Soaring fuel prices have altered the equation for growing food and transporting it across the globe. Huge demand for biofuels has created tension between using land to produce fuel and using it for food.
A growing middle class in the developing world is demanding more protein, from pork and hamburgers to chicken and ice cream. And all this is happening even as global climate change may be starting to make it harder to grow food in some of the places best equipped to do so, like Australia.
In the last few years, world demand for crops and meat has been rising sharply. It remains an open question how and when the supply will catch up. For the foreseeable future, that probably means higher prices at the grocery store and fatter paychecks for farmers of major crops like corn, wheat and soybeans.
There may be worse inflation to come. Food experts say steep increases in commodity prices have not fully made their way to street stalls in the developing world or supermarkets in the West.
Governments in many poor countries have tried to respond by stepping up food subsidies, imposing or tightening price controls, restricting exports and cutting food import duties.
These temporary measures are already breaking down. Across Southeast Asia, for example, families have been hoarding palm oil. Smugglers have been bidding up prices as they move the oil from more subsidized markets, like Malaysia's, to less subsidized markets, like Singapore's.
No category of food prices has risen as quickly this winter as so-called edible oils - with sometimes tragic results. When a Carrefour store in Chongqing, China, announced a limited-time cooking oil promotion in November, a stampede of would-be buyers left 3 people dead and 31 injured.
Cooking oil may seem a trifling expense in the West. But in the developing world, cooking oil is an important source of calories and represents one of the biggest cash outlays for poor families, which grow much of their own food but have to buy oil in which to cook it.
Few crops illustrate the emerging problems in the global food chain as well as palm oil, a vital commodity in much of the world and particularly Asia. From jungles and street markets in Southeast Asia to food companies in the United States and biodiesel factories in Europe, soaring prices for the oil are drawing environmentalists, energy companies, consumers, indigenous peoples and governments into acrimonious disputes.
The oil palm is a stout-trunked tree with a spray of frilly fronds at the top that make it look like an enormous sea anemone. The trees, with their distinctive, star-like patterns of leaves, cover an eighth of the entire land area of Malaysia and even greater acreage in nearby Indonesia.
An Efficient Producer
The palm is a highly efficient producer of vegetable oil, squeezed from the tree's thick bunches of plum-size bright red fruit. An acre of oil palms yields as much oil as eight acres of soybeans, the main rival for oil palms; rapeseed, used to make canola oil, is a distant third. Among major crops, only sugar cane comes close to rivaling oil palms in calories of human food per acre.
Palm oil prices have jumped nearly 70 percent in the last year because supply has grown slowly while demand has soared.
Farmers and plantation companies are responding to the higher prices, clearing hundreds of thousands of acres of tropical forest to replant with rows of oil palms. But an oil palm takes eight years to reach full production. A drought last year in Indonesia and flooding in Peninsular Malaysia helped constrain supply. Worldwide palm oil output climbed just 2.7 percent last year, to 42.1 million tons.
At the same time, palm oil demand is growing steeply for a variety of reasons around the globe. They include shifting decisions among farmers about what to plant, rising consumer demand in China and India for edible oils, and Western subsidies for biofuel production.
American farmers have been planting more corn and less soy because demand for corn-based ethanol has pushed up corn prices. American soybean acreage plunged 19 percent last year, producing a drop in soybean oil output and inventories.
Chinese farmers also cut back soybean acreage last year, as urban sprawl covered prime farmland and the Chinese government provided more incentives for grain.
Yet people in China are also consuming more oils. China not only was the world's biggest palm oil importer last year, holding steady at 5.2 million tons in the first 11 months of the year, but it also doubled its soybean oil imports to 2.9 million tons, forcing buyers elsewhere to switch to palm oil.
Concerns about nutrition used to hurt palm oil sales, but they are now starting to help. The oil was long regarded in the West as unhealthy, but it has become an attractive option to replace the chemically altered fats known as trans fats, which have lately come to be seen as the least healthy of all fats.
New York City banned trans fats in frying at food service establishments last summer and will ban them in bakery goods this summer. Across the country, manufacturers are trying to replace trans fats. American palm oil imports nearly doubled in the first 11 months of last year, rising by 200,000 tons.
"Four years ago, when this whole no-trans issue started, we processed no palm here," said Mark Weyland, a United States product manager for Loders Croklaan, a Dutch company that supplies palm oil. "Now it's our biggest seller."
Last year, conversion of palm oil into fuel was a fast-growing source of demand, but in recent weeks, rising prices have thrown that business into turmoil.
Here on Malaysia's eastern shore, a series of 45-foot-high green and gray storage tanks connect to a labyrinth of yellow and silver pipes. The gleaming new refinery has the capacity to turn 116,000 tons a year of palm oil into 110,000 tons of a fuel called biodiesel, as well as valuable byproducts like glycerin. Mission Biofuels, an Australian company, finished the refinery last month and is working on an even larger factory next door at the base of a jungle hillside.
But prices have spiked so much that the company cannot cover all its costs and has idled the finished refinery while looking for a new strategy, such as asking a biodiesel buyer to pay a price linked to palm oil costs, and someday switching from palm oil to jatropha, a roadside weed.
"We took a view that palm oil prices were already high; we didn't think they could go even higher, and then they did," said Nathan Mahalingam, the company's managing director.
Growth in Biofuels
Biofuels accounted for almost half the increase in worldwide demand for vegetable oils last year, and represented 7 percent of total consumption of the oils, according to Oil World, a forecasting service in Hamburg, Germany.
The growth of biodiesel, which can be mixed with regular diesel, has been controversial, not only because it competes with food uses of oil but also because of environmental concerns. European conservation groups have been warning that tropical forests are being leveled to make way for oil palm plantations, destroying habitat for orangutans and Sumatran rhinoceroses while also releasing greenhouse gases.
The European Union has moved to restrict imports of palm oil grown in unsustainable ways. The measure has incensed the Malaysian palm oil industry, which had plunged into biofuel production in part to satisfy European demand.
Another controversy involves the treatment of indigenous peoples whose lands have been seized by oil plantations. This has been a particular issue on Borneo.
Anne B. Lasimbang, executive director of the Pacos Trust in the Malaysian state of Sabah in northern Borneo, said that while some indigenous people had benefited from selling palm oil that they grow themselves, many had lost ancestral lands with little to show for it, including lands that used to provide habitats for endangered orangutans.
"Finally, some of the pressures internationally have trickled down. Some of the companies are more open to dialogue; they want to talk to communities," said Ms. Lasimbang, a member of the Dusun indigenous group. "On our side, we are still suspicious."
Demand Outstrips Supply
As the multiple conflicts and economic pressures associated with palm oil play out in the global economy, the bottom line seems to be that the world wants more of the oil than it can get.
Even in Malaysia, the center of the global palm oil industry for half a century, spot shortages have cropped up. Recently, as wholesale prices soared, cooking oil refiners complained of inadequate subsidies and cut back production of household oil, sold at low, regulated prices.
Street vendors in the capital, Kuala Lumpur, complain that they cannot find enough cooking oil to prepare roti canai, the flatbread that is the national snack. "It's very difficult; it's hard to find," said one vendor who gave only his first name, Palani, after admitting that he was secretly buying cooking oil intended for households instead of paying the much higher price for commercial use.
Many of the hardest-hit victims of rising food prices are in the vast slums that surround cities in poorer Asian nations. The Kawle family in Mumbai's sprawling Dharavi slum, a household of nine with just one member working as a laborer for $60 a month, is coping with recent price increases for palm oil.
The family has responded by eating fish once a week instead of twice, seldom cooking vegetables and cutting its monthly rice consumption. Next to go will be the weekly smidgen of lamb.
"If the prices go up again," said Janaron Kawle, the family patriarch, "we'll cut the mutton to twice a month and use less oil."
Contributing reporting were Andrew Martin in New York, Anand Giridharadas in Kale, India, and Michael Rubenstein in Mumbai.
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Odd Crop Prices Defy Economics |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Diana B. Henriques - March 28, 2008
Economists note there should not be two prices for one thing at the same place and time. Could a drugstore sell two identical tubes of toothpaste, and charge 50 cents more for one of them? Of course not.
But, in effect, exactly that has been happening, repeatedly and mysteriously, in trading that sets prices for corn, soybeans and wheat - three of America's biggest crops and, lately, popular targets for investors pouring into the volatile commodities market. Economists who have been studying this phenomenon say they are at a loss to explain it.
Whatever the reason, the price for a bushel of grain set in the derivatives markets has been substantially higher than the simultaneous price in the cash market.
When that happens, no one can be exactly sure which is the accurate price in these crucial commodity markets, an uncertainty that can influence food prices and production decisions around the world.
These disparities also raise the question of whether American farmers, who rely almost exclusively on the cash market, are being shortchanged by cash prices that are lower than they should be.
"We do not have a clear understanding of what is driving these episodic instances," said Prof. Scott H. Irwin, one of three agricultural economists at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who have done extensive research on these price distortions.
Professor Irwin and his colleagues, Prof. Philip T. Garcia and Prof. Darrel L. Good, first sounded the alarm about these price distortions in late 2006 in a study financed by the Chicago Board of Trade. Their findings drew little attention then, Professor Irwin said, but lately "people have begun to get very seriously interested in why this is happening - because it is a fundamental problem in markets that have generally worked well in the past."
Market regulators say they have ruled out deliberate market manipulation. But they, too, are baffled. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates the exchanges where these grain derivatives trade, has scheduled a forum on April 22 where market participants will discuss these anomalies and other pressure points arising in the agricultural markets.
The mechanics of the commodity markets are more complex than selling toothpaste, however. The anomalies are occurring between the price of a bushel of grain in the cash market and the price of that same bushel of grain, as determined by the expiration price of a futures contract traded in Chicago.
A futures contract is an agreement to deliver a specific amount of a commodity - 5,000 bushels of wheat, say - on a certain date in the future. Such contracts are important hedging tools for farmers, grain elevators, commodity processors and anyone with a stake in future grain prices. A futures contract that calls for delivery of wheat in July may trade for more or less for each bushel than today's cash market price. But as each day goes by, its price should move a bit closer to that day's cash price. And on expiration day, when the bushels of wheat covered by that futures contract are due for delivery, their price should very nearly match the price in the cash market, allowing for a little market friction or major delivery disruptions like Hurricane Katrina.
But on dozens of occasions since early 2006, the futures contracts for corn, wheat and soybeans have expired at a price that was much higher than that day's cash price for those grains.
For example, soybean futures contracts expired in July at a price of $9.13 a bushel, which was 80 cents higher than the cash price that day, Professor Irwin said. In August, the futures expired at $8.62, or 68 cents above the cash price, and in September, the expiration price was $9.43, or 78 cents above the cash price.
Corn has been similarly eccentric. A corn futures contract expired last September at $3.36, which was a remarkable 55 cents above the cash price, but the contract that expired in March 2007 was roughly even with the cash price.
"As far as I know, nothing like this has ever happened in the corn market," said Professor Irwin. - - - -
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High Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asia Unrest |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Keith Bradsher - March 29, 2008
HANOI - Rising prices and a growing fear of scarcity have prompted some of the world's largest rice producers to announce drastic limits on the amount of rice they export.
The price of rice, a staple in the diets of nearly half the world's population, has almost doubled on international markets in the last three months. That has pinched the budgets of millions of poor Asians and raised fears of civil unrest.
Shortages and high prices for all kinds of food have caused tensions and even violence around the world in recent months. Since January, thousands of troops have been deployed in Pakistan to guard trucks carrying wheat and flour. Protests have erupted in Indonesia over soybean shortages, and China has put price controls on cooking oil, grain, meat, milk and eggs.
Food riots have erupted in recent months in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan and Yemen. But the moves by rice-exporting nations over the last two days - meant to ensure scarce supplies will meet domestic needs - drove prices on the world market even higher this week.
This has fed the insecurity of rice-importing nations, already increasingly desperate to secure supplies. On Tuesday, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of the Philippines, afraid of increasing rice scarcity, ordered government investigators to track down hoarders.
The increase in rice prices internationally promised to put more pressure on prices in the United States, which imports more than 30 percent of the rice Americans consume, according to the United States Rice Producers Association. The price that consumers pay for rice has already increased more than 8 percent over the last year.
But the United States is fortunate in also exporting rice; poor countries ranging from Sengal in West Africa to the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific are heavily dependent on imports and now face higher bills.
Vietnam's government announced here on Friday that it would cut rice exports by nearly a quarter this year. The government hoped that keeping more rice inside the country would hold down prices.
The same day, India effectively banned the export of all but the most expensive grades of rice. Egypt announced on Thursday that it would impose a six-month ban on rice exports, starting April 1, and on Wednesday, Cambodia banned all rice exports except by government agencies.
Governments across Asia and in many rice-consuming countries in Africa have long worried that a steep increase in prices could set off an angry reaction among low-income city dwellers.
"There is definitely the potential for unrest, particularly as the people most affected are the urban poor and they're concentrated, so it's easier for them to organize than it would be for farmers, for example, to organize to protest lower prices," said Nicholas W. Minot, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.
Several factors are contributing to the steep rice in prices. Rising affluence in India and China has increased demand. At the same time, drought and other bad weather have reduced output in Australia and elsewhere. Many rice farmers are turning to more lucrative cash crops, reducing the amount of land devoted to the grain. And urbanization and industrialization have cut into the land devoted to rice cultivation.
In Vietnam, an obscure plant virus has caused annual output to start leveling off; it had increased significantly each year until the last three years.
Until the last few years, the potential for rapid price swings was damped by the tendency of many governments to hold very large rice stockpiles to ensure food security, said Sushil Pandey, an agricultural economist at the International Rice Research Institute in Manila.
But those stockpiles were costly to maintain. So governments have been drawing them down as world rice consumption has outstripped production for most of the last decade.
The relatively small quantities traded across borders, combined with small stockpiles, now mean that prices can move quickly in response to supply disruptions. - - -
Together with rising prices for other foods, like wheat, soybeans, pork and cooking oil, higher rice prices are also contributing to inflation in many developing countries. Retail rice prices have already jumped by as much as 60 percent in recent months in Vietnam, trailing increases in wholesale prices but leading a broader acceleration in inflation. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung of Vietnam announced Wednesday that the government's top priority now was fighting inflation. Overall consumer prices are more than 19 percent higher this month than last March. . The inflation rate has nearly tripled in the last year.
Rice is unusual among major agricultural commodities in that most of the major rice-consuming countries are self-sufficient or nearly so. Only 7 percent of the world's rice production is traded across international borders each year, according to figures from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome. - - - -
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Jump in rice price fuels fears of unrest |
FINANCIALTIMES of LONDON [Pearson Group,UK] - By Javier Blas in London and Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok - March 28, 2008
Rice prices jumped 30 per cent to an all-time high on Thursday, raising fears of fresh outbreaks of social unrest across Asia where the grain is a staple food for more than 2.5bn people.
The increase came after Egypt, a leading exporter, imposed a formal ban on selling rice abroad to keep local prices down, and the Philippines announced plans for a major purchase of the grain in the international market to boost supplies. Global rice stocks are at their lowest since 1976.
On Friday the Indian government imposed further restrictions on the exports of rice to combat rising local inflation, with traders warning that the new regime would de facto stop all India 's non-basmati rice sales.
The measures include raising the minimum price for selling abroad non-basmati rice by 53 per cent to $1,000 a tonne. Exports of premium basmati rice are likely to continue, although volumes could also suffer as the government also increased the minimum export price and scrapped export tax incentives.
While prices of wheat, corn and other agricultural commodities have surged since late 2006, the increase in rice prices only started in January.
The Egyptian export ban formalises a previously poorly enforced curb and follows similar restrictions imposed by Vietnam and India, the world's second- and third-largest exporters. Cambodia, a small seller, also on Thursday announced an export ban.
These foreign sales restrictions have removed about a third of the rice traded in the international market.
"I have no idea how importing countries will get rice," said Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. He forecast that prices would rise further.
The Philippines, the world's largest buyer of the grain, said on Thursday it wanted to purchase 500,000 tonnes after it failed to buy a similar amount earlier this month. It is struggling to import 1.8m-2.1m tonnes to cover a production shortfall and on Thursday confirmed it would tap emergency stocks maintained by Vietnam and Thailand.
Rice is also a staple in Africa, particularly for small countries such as Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Senegal that have already suffered social unrest because of high food prices.
Thai rice, a global benchmark, was quoted on Thursday at $760 a tonne, up about 30 per cent from the previous daily quote of about $580 a tonne, according to Reuters data. Some traders, however, said the daily jump was not as steep, adding that Thai rice had already traded at about $700 a tonne this week.
Rice prices have doubled since January, when the grain traded at about $380 a tonne, boosted by strong Asian, Middle Eastern and African demand.
Additional reporting by Roel Landingin in Manila
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Rice heist sows panic among farmers |
REUTERS [Thomson-Reuters] - By Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat - March 24, 2008
BANGKOK - Thai rice farmers are guarding paddy fields and hurrying to bring in their crops after a granary theft last week fuelled rumors of bandits lured by surging rice prices, officials said on Monday.
Reports of widespread paddy theft, although unsubstantiated by police, spread quickly after the theft of 100 kg (220 lb) of premium quality fragrant rice from a farmer's granary in the province of Kalasin, 500 km (310 miles) northeast of Bangkok.
"Villagers have set up teams and are patrolling the community," Urit Poo-aob, a district chief in Kalasin, told Reuters by telephone.
The northeast is the key producing region for premium grade fragrant rice in Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter.
Thai rice prices have been rising since late last year when India banned exports of non-basmati rice to ensure it had enough for its own people.
Vietnam, the number two rice exporter, halted exports during March and April in order to meet Filipino contracts.
As a result, the price of Thai premium fragrant price has soared 30 percent to nearly $900 a tonne.
Thai 100 percent B grade white rice has also risen 30 percent, to $600 a tonne, fuelling rumors of rice bandits swooping on unguarded paddy fields after midnight in search of an easy score.
Some farmers in the white rice growing province of Sing Buri have slept in their paddy fields after rumors spread of a 1,000 kg heist. However, police have received no formal complaint.
"There are many rumors, but no one has come forward to tell police that they were robbed," an Ang Thong police official, who declined to be named, told Reuters.
Nevertheless, the rumors have been strong enough to prompt many farmers to harvest their crops as quickly as possible.
"Most of the rice grown in Suphan Buri has already been harvested. It's around 10-20 days earlier than expected," said an agricultural official in the mostly white rice producing province 100 km north of Bangkok.
Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, is expected to produce around 6 million tonnes of paddy in its second smaller crop usually harvested in April.(Editing by Darren Schuettler)
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Rising Inflation Creates Unease in Middle East |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Robert F. Worth - February 25, 2008
AMMAN, Jordan - Even as it enriches Arab rulers, the recent oil-price boom is helping to fuel an extraordinary rise in the cost of food and other basic goods that is squeezing this region's middle class and setting off strikes, demonstrations and occasional riots from Morocco to the Persian Gulf.
Here in Jordan, the cost of maintaining fuel subsidies amid the surge in prices forced the government to remove almost all the subsidies this month, sending the price of some fuels up 76 percent overnight. In a devastating domino effect, the cost of basic foods like eggs, potatoes and cucumbers doubled or more.
In Saudi Arabia, where inflation had been virtually zero for a decade, it recently reached an official level of 6.5 percent, though unofficial estimates put it much higher. Public protests and boycotts have followed, and 19 prominent clerics posted an unusual statement on the Internet in December warning of a crisis that would cause "theft, cheating, armed robbery and resentment between rich and poor."
The inflation has many causes, from rising global demand for commodities to the monetary constraints of currencies pegged to the weakening American dollar. But one cause is the skyrocketing price of oil itself, which has quadrupled since 2002. It is helping push many ordinary people toward poverty even as it stimulates a new surge of economic growth in the gulf.
"Now we have to choose: we either eat or stay warm. We can't do both," said Abdul Rahman Abdul Raheem, who works at a clothing shop in a mall in Amman and once dreamed of sending his children to private school. "We're not really middle class anymore; we're at the poverty level." - - - -
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USA 2008: The Great Depression |
Food stamps are the symbol of poverty in the US. In the era of the credit crunch, a record 28 million Americans are now relying on them to survive - a sure sign the world's richest country faces economic crisis
THE INDEPENDENT, UK [APN / INM / O'Reilly] - By David Usborne in New York - April 1, 2008
We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.
Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.
The increase - from 26.5 million in 2007 - is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.
Emblematic of the downturn until now has been the parades of houses seized in foreclosure all across the country, and myriad families separated from their homes. But now the crisis is starting to hit the country in its gut. Getting food on the table is a challenge many Americans are finding harder to meet. As a barometer of the country's economic health, food stamp usage may not be perfect, but can certainly tell a story.
Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. "We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months," Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan's programme, said. "It's been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without."
But the trend is not restricted to the rust-belt regions. Forty states are reporting increases in applications for the stamps, actually electronic cards that are filled automatically once a month by the government and are swiped by shoppers at the till, in the 12 months from December 2006. At least six states, including Florida, Arizona and Maryland, have had a 10 per cent increase in the past year.
In Rhode Island, the segment of the population on food stamps has risen by 18 per cent in two years. The food programme started 40 years ago when hunger was still a daily fact of life for many Americans. The recent switch from paper coupons to the plastic card system has helped remove some of the stigma associated with the food stamp programme. The card can be swiped as easily as a bank debit card. To qualify for the cards, Americans do not have to be exactly on the breadline. The programme is available to people whose earnings are just above the official poverty line. For Hubert Liepnieks, the card is a lifeline he could never afford to lose. Just out of prison, he sleeps in overnight shelters in Manhattan and uses the card at a Morgan Williams supermarket on East 23rd Street. Yesterday, he and his fiancée, Christine Schultz, who is in a wheelchair, shared one banana and a cup of coffee bought with the 82 cents left on it.
"They should be refilling it in the next three or four days," Liepnieks says. At times, he admits, he and friends bargain with owners of the smaller grocery shops to trade the value of their cards for cash, although it is illegal. "It can be done. I get $7 back on $10." - - - -
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As Jobs Vanish and Prices Rise, Food Stamp Use Nears Record |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Erik Eckholm - March 31, 2008
Driven by a painful mix of layoffs and rising food and fuel prices, the number of Americans receiving food stamps is projected to reach 28 million in the coming year, the highest level since the aid program began in the 1960s.
The number of recipients, who must have near-poverty incomes to qualify for benefits averaging $100 a month per family member, has fluctuated over the years along with economic conditions, eligibility rules, enlistment drives and natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina, which led to a spike in the South.
But recent rises in many states appear to be resulting mainly from the economic slowdown, officials and experts say, as well as inflation in prices of basic goods that leave more families feeling pinched. Citing expected growth in unemployment, the Congressional Budget Office this month projected a continued increase in the monthly number of recipients in the next fiscal year, starting Oct. 1 - to 28 million, up from 27.8 million in 2008, and 26.5 million in 2007.
The percentage of Americans receiving food stamps was higher after a recession in the 1990s, but actual numbers are expected to be higher this year.
Federal benefit costs are projected to rise to $36 billion in the 2009 fiscal year from $34 billion this year.
"People sign up for food stamps when they lose their jobs, or their wages go down because their hours are cut," said Stacy Dean, director of food stamp policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington, who noted that 14 states saw their rolls reach record numbers by last December.
One example is Michigan, where one in eight residents now receives food stamps. "Our caseload has more than doubled since 2000, and we're at an all-time record level," said Maureen Sorbet, spokeswoman for the Michigan Department of Human Services.
The climb in food stamp recipients there has been relentless, through economic upturns and downturns, reflecting a steady loss of industrial jobs that has pushed recipient levels to new highs in Ohio and Illinois as well. - - -
As a share of the national population, food stamp use was highest in 1994, after several years of poor economic growth, with an average of 27.5 million recipients per month from a lower total of residents. The numbers plummeted in the late 1990s as the economy grew and legal immigrants and certain others were excluded.
But access by legal immigrants has been partly restored and, in the current decade, the federal and state governments have used advertising and other measures to inform people of their eligibility and have often simplified application procedures.
Because they spend a higher share of their incomes on basic needs like food and fuel, low-income Americans have been hit hard by soaring gasoline and heating costs and jumps in the prices of staples like milk, eggs and bread.
At the same time, average family incomes among the bottom fifth of the population have been stagnant or have declined in recent years at levels around $15,500, said Jared Bernstein, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington. - - -
Another important federal nutrition program known as WIC, for women, infants and children, is struggling with rising prices of milk and cheese, and growing enrollment. - - - -
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1 IN 10 OHIOANS: Food stamps double since '01 |
But price of food means they don't go as far now
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH [Dispatch Printing Company (Wolfe family)] - By Catherine Candisky - March 21, 2008
Nearly one in 10 Ohioans now receives food stamps, the highest number in the state's history.
Caseloads have almost doubled just since 2001, with 1.1 million residents now collecting benefits, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services.
Low wages, unemployment and the rising cost of groceries, gasoline and other necessities are to blame for financial hardships facing many Ohio families.
Caseloads have been rising steadily in the past seven years, said Brian Harter, spokesman for the state agency which oversees the food-stamp program. - - -
Not surprisingly, food pantries and soup kitchens across the state have been reporting record demands. Like the families they serve, they, too, cannot keep pace.
In central Ohio, demand at the Mid-Ohio Food Bank in January was up 14 percent over the same period a year ago, with 120,000 requests for food.
The increased demand coupled with rising food costs and fewer donations have forced the food bank to reduce the five-day supply of food it had been giving out to a three-day supply. - - -
In other areas of the state, pantries with their supplies depleted have been forced to temporarily close.
"The shortages," Hamler-Fugitt said, "are a double whammy for people who have been relying on food stamps and pantries."
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One in 6 West Virginians is on food stamps |
CHARLESTON DAILY MAIL, Charleston, West Virginia [MediaNews/Singleton-Daily Gazette Co.] - By Justin D. Anderson, Daily Mail Capitol Reporter - March 26, 2008
About one in every six West Virginians gets food stamps, the highest level of participation in at least 30 years.
Amid rising food and fuel costs, the assistance is becoming worth less and less.
And supplemental food programs for poor families are struggling to keep up with the added demand as donations are on the decline.
Last month, 274,487 state residents received food stamps. That's up from 246,890 just five years ago, according to data from the state Department of Health and Human Resources.
A total of 122,877 of the state's estimated 743,064 households currently receive food stamps. That's up from 105,365 households in 2003.
But while the number of people on the program has jumped sharply, the federal government has raised the average per-person monthly benefits over that time by just $12 to $85.
Meanwhile, the cost of food is expected to jump by up to 4 percent this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.
Food costs have been increasing by at least 2.4 percent each year since 2004. - - - -
Sarah Young, a policy specialist with the Department of Health and Human Resources, says the agency is seeing more of the state's working poor applying for food stamps in order to make ends meet.
"Even those eligible for lower amounts are coming back onto the program because they have less to spend on food," Young said. "These are historically higher rates. I think even nationwide, we're at our highest rates." - - - -
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Europe's Appetite for Seafood Propels Illegal Trade |
NEW YORK TIMES [NYTimes Group/Sulzberger] - By Elisabeth Rosenthal - January 15, 2008
Correction Appended
LONDON - Walking at the Brixton market among the parrotfish, doctorfish and butterfish, Effa Edusie is surrounded by pieces of her childhood in Ghana. Caught the day before far off the coast of West Africa, they have been airfreighted to London for dinner.
Ms. Edusie's relatives used to be fishermen. But no more. These fish are no longer caught by Africans.
On the underside of the waterlogged brown cardboard box that holds the snapper is the improbable red logo of the China National Fisheries Corporation, one of the largest suppliers of West African fish to Europe. Europe's dinner tables are increasingly supplied by global fishing fleets, which are depleting the world's oceans to feed the ravenous consumers who have become the most effective predators of fish.
Fish is now the most traded animal commodity on the planet, with about 100 million tons of wild and farmed fish sold each year. Europe has suddenly become the world's largest market for fish, worth more than 14 billion euros, or about $20.6 billion a year. Europe's appetite has grown as its native fish stocks have shrunk so that Europe now needs to import 60 percent of fish sold in the region, according to the European Union.
In Europe, the imbalance between supply and demand has led to a thriving illegal trade. Some 50 percent of the fish sold in the European Union originates in developing nations, and much of it is laundered like contraband, caught and shipped illegally beyond the limits of government quotas or treaties. The smuggling operation is well financed and sophisticated, carried out by large-scale mechanized fishing fleets able to sweep up more fish than ever, chasing threatened stocks from ocean to ocean.
The European Commission estimates that more than 1.1 billion euros in illegal seafood, or $1.6 billion worth, enters Europe each year. The World Wide Fund for Nature contends that up to half the fish sold in Europe are illegally caught or imported. While some of the so-called "pirate fishing" is carried out by non-Western vessels far afield, European ships are also guilty, some of them operating close to home. An estimated 40 percent of cod caught in the Baltic Sea are illegal, said Mireille Thom, a spokeswoman for Joe Borg, the European Union's commissioner of fisheries and maritime affairs.
"We know that it's much too easy to land illegal fish in European ports, and we are really eager to block their access to European markets," Ms. Thom said.
If cost is an indication, fish are poised to become Europe's most precious contraband. Prices have doubled and tripled in response to surging demand, scarcity and recent fishing quotas imposed by the European Union in a desperate effort to save native species. In London, a kilogram of lowly cod, the traditional ingredient of fish and chips, now costs up to £30, or close to $60, up from £6 four years ago.
"Fish and chips used to be a poor man's treat, but with the prices, it's becoming a delicacy," said Mark Morris, a fishmonger for 20 years in London's enormous Billingsgate market.
On a wintry day at 5 a.m. in Billingsgate last month, as wholesalers unpacked fresh fish from all over the world, the vast international trade that feeds Europe's appetite was readily apparent, even if the origins of each fillet and steak were not. - - - -
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Independent truckers planning shutdown |
They want Washington to address rising fuel costs
WORLDNETDAILY - March 28, 2008
Crude oil is running $100 a barrel and it costs $50 instead of $35 to fill your car, but you carpool occasionally and watch the number of trips across town so you're doing all right so far. But what happens when, in addition to the $50 fillup, your groceries go from $80 to $120 and you hunt for new jeans but the shelves don't even have your size?
That's the very real possibility that is triggering an unofficial nationwide call for a shutdown by thousands of independent truck operators who deliver those supplies - all sparked by the rising costs of fuel.
One website already explains about 18,000 trucks have been committed to the shutdown starting April 1, and whether it goes for a day or a week, they are hoping that their actions will get the attention of officials who, they demand, must do something to help.
The Washington Post reports Lee Klass, hauling 41,000 pounds of hairspray from Florida to Quebec, stopped in North Carolina to refill fuel tanks, and paid $960. Diesel prices, he told the paper, "are terrible, and they're not getting any better."
Auto clubs that monitor prices say diesel has gone up more than 50 cents a gallon in barely two months, and has been setting records almost daily. The nationwide average on one recent day was $3.87 a gallon.
The newspaper warned fuel price hikes, especially trucks, have the potential to disrupt the Federal Reserve's plan to contain inflation while creating growth with low interest rates, combined with the money giveaway program approved by Congress.
That's because trucking claims 70 percent of U.S. freight transportation, from the cars you drive to work to the milk your children drink.
Tiffany Wlazlowski of the American Trucking Association told the Santa Maria Times projections are for trucking industry fuel costs in 2008 to reach $135 billion, up $22 billion in just one year.
Her organization and the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association both are calling on Congress and the Bush administration to address those skyrocketing figures.
The OOIDA has warned in a news release that consumers should not be blaming truckers for the rising costs of goods.
"Often shippers pay higher amounts for shipping when fuel prices are high, but that money doesn't always trickle down to the person actually paying for the fuel," the group said." - - -
"I think we can make an impact," added Flatbed Pete. "For the ones who say it won't work, you are probably on your way out of business anyhow. It is time we take a stand. Without us even for a short time will hurt everyone. Then maybe we can get the whole country back on track."
How could a shutdown affect individual consumers? Just remember that your average discount store or grocery will be served my multiple truckloads of goods every day. No trucks backing up to the docks means no new consumer goods on the shelves. - - - -
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