Issue: #182
5/11/2015
Hello and Welcome,

Welcome to the Trizen Systems newsletter.  This will be the new format for discussing our algorithmic trading systems and other information.  Monthly updates will include Actual Profits/Losses, Commitment of Traders, Articles and Actual Trading screen shots. Pass this along to anyone that you feel would like to understand more about the financial markets, derivatives, and how to trade them successfully.  Since the CPO is comprised of participants that enter at times other than January 1st we are going to introduce the actual/theoretical returns to this.  The first number is the actual (CPO started on 4/14/2015) and the theoretical is the return if started exactly on January 1st:

 

2015 BladeTrader: +2.0/12.0% vs. S&P 500: 2.8% 

 

ACTUAL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS LONG ONLY:

 

2014: +0% vs. S&P 500 +11%

2013: +25% vs. S&P 500 +30%

2012: +25% vs. S&P 500 +13% 

2011: +7% vs. S&P 500 +0%

2010: +42% vs. S&P 500 +13%

 

Commodity Pool Operations

       Non Farm Payrolls came in AT expectations and market rallied.  The CPO is currently up 2% as we near the end of the first month in trading.  We're playing some catch-up with the market having started mid April, but so far the fund is performing as expected.

 

In the image below we see the market rally off of the news on Friday (5/8/2015)at around 8:30 AM with the unemployment report.  Our long positions had gotten in the day before, in addition the strategies exited a short position the night before.

 

 

So far the breakdown of the accounts are as follows:

 

Account Description
Actual Returns
Short Term "Long Only"
+4.3%
Medium Term "Long Only"
+0.3%
Medium Term "Short Only"
+1.0%

 

Though we are up 1% in the Short Only account, this account is largely about hedging and so it will typically fluctuate regularly depending on the market but we always have expectations that the hedging strategy will make money in most years.  The fund is divided equally among the three accounts above. 

 

The market in general over the last several weeks as been flip flopping and the short hedging strategy was able to capture some gains on the downside and then exit when markets rallied.

 

Account statements will go out this week electronically to all participants. If you would like paper statements, please email Zaremba@trizen.com and we will get those to you as well. 

Options Trading - Testing
For Profit in a whip-saw then trending market
Options trading is a great strategy for a few and a horrible strategy for most.  The fees are high, it can't be automated (apparently against regulations in the United States) and there is a lot of theory around the pricing of the option that doesn't necessarily correlate to the price of the underlying security.  In fact, I would not recommend options trading unless you have serious experience with trading this type of product; however, this is a great opportunity to solve something that is missing from most investors' portfolios.

We will use the Bulls 'n Bears indicator to place our hedges At-the-Money combined with some back tested models of data.  We are attempting to capture the "swing" and trend when markets whipsaw investors and capitalize on big moves.  This works a few times a year and the returns far out weigh the losses over the given years.  We don't have much data to go on as options on futures is not very good prior to 2004.  So this will be a small account that Trizen has funded (doesn't include CPO participants) and we will let you know how its going.  Since this started on 4/14 its actual performance against the S&P will be different than if we started on January 1:

 

Closed Out Positions 

Buy 1 S&P September Call 2080 Strike @ 79:  Sold  @ 79 or -0.00

 

Open Positions:

Buy 1 S&P September Put 2080 Strike @ 75: Currently @ 62 or: -$650.00 

 

Strategy is flip-flopping between gains an losses at moment as market over last couple months has been bracketed between 2120 and 2050, and the strike is currently in the middle.


Note: When trading options on e-Mini S&P500 Futures, each point represents $50.00.  So, if we bought at a price of 79, and the market is 77.5, we have lost 1.5 points or $50x1.5 = $75 for the week.  

Market Summary - Macro                           
S&P 500 Review

 

Lets review our previous statement:

 

"Not much has changed, even with a 300 point drop in the DOW.  The markets are neutral at the moment and a HOLD is still recommended.  The Commitment of Traders is currently negative, but just barely and the market is simply trying to find direction; the markets will likely float higher until a catalyst is found to give the market a path of least resistance as most investors are on the buy side historically."

 

As you can see from the above charts the market is really range bound and has been for some time now.  With a 3% range (roughly 60 points) the market is looking for some leadership to get a good breakout.   We still have a HOLD recommended for the macro investor as the markets remain neutral.

 

If you have any questions or if your advisor has any questions, please text me at 704-999-7844 or email me.  Some emails are blocking my responses so if I don't respond right away please try again stating you haven't received anything and I can try another email.

2015 - CPO, Website, Subscriptions

EddieZ

 Greetings! The CPO is doing great and performing as expected.  The website is nearly complete and should be done later today in a beta phase so I can get some comments back on it.  Its a little different from our previous sites, focusing more on video references and commentary.

 

Feel free to check back later today at www.trizen.com and leave some feedback.  Its currently open to all visitors but in the future it will require registration.

 

  If you have any questions or if you need assistance with anything, please contact me at any time.

 

Sincerely,

 


Edward Zaremba
Trizen Systems, Inc.
  

 

In This Issue
CPO
Options!!
Market Summary
2015
Quick Links

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or options on the same. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN. ALL INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS ARE BEING MADE REGARDLESS OF PERSONAL PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS.  ALL RECOMMENDATIONS ARE DERIVED FROM A SYSTEM OF TRADING VIA AUTOMATION AND OPERATIONAL RULES AND NO PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO ANY INDIVIDUAL'S PORTFOLIO REQUIREMENTS.