Any good handicapper knows that the first thing you do is eliminate the non-contenders, or as we refer to them here, the pretenders. This year's list of pretenders is led by Charming Kitten. I'll bet a Kitten's Joy to win a Derby just as soon as they start running it on grass, or more preferably for Charming Kitten, kitty litter. Lines of Battle goes next; is he even in the USA yet? Black Onyx could have been a contender, but he drew the 1 post, then the forecast turned wet. Falling Sky, whose name may be weather-appropriate, will run more like Chicken Little. Giant Finish? NOT! And the rest of the pretenders: Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Golden Soul and Oxbow. And then there were eleven.

It appears that rain will play a major role in the 2013 edition of the Kentucky Derby. My picks assume we're playing on a sloppy or muddy track. If the rains don't come, results may vary significantly. I had to add the disclaimer, because when Bob Saunders requests a "pro forma KY Derby P&L," you can't take any chances.

With so many contenders to consider, I had to break it down further to get a more refined list. So let's dismiss Vyjack (post 20, and had every chance in Wood Memorial, losing to two others in this field). Java's War is next to be shot down as he seems to prefer the polytrack. Now we'll dispose of Overanalyze and Mylute (better suited as printers) and Frac Daddy (though at 50-1, worth using in your trifectas and superfectas).

And finally, Goldencents (sorry Cards fans and Rick Pitino, your magical run has come to an end). This horse's connections have more storylines than Aesop. Pitino's amazing month; last year's winning trainer, Doug O'Neill; and Kevin Krigger's attempt to become the first black jockey to win a Derby since 1902. All those stories will end happily, just not in the Winner's Circle on Derby Day. And then there were five.

Verrazano, who figures to be co-favored, is as solid as they come. His flaw is that he did not race at age 2, had to race four times at 3 to qualify for this, and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who happens to be 2 for 49 in Triple Crown races. Todd likes to run them well rested, but Verrazano does not fit that profile. He could win it, but I just don't see the value at 4 or 5-1.

Orb, the other co-fav, is working like a bear over the racetrack. He is trained by possibly the best trainer to have never won a Derby, Shug McGaughey, and he is definitely capable of winning. My problem with Orb, other than the fact his name has only three letters (folks, it happened only once in 138 years when Zev took the roses in 1923), is that he hasn't proven he can run fast enough to get the job done. While he looked impressive in taking the Florida Derby, his time for nine furlongs that day over a very fast track extends out to running 10 furlongs in 2:04, which won't get the job done. 

Most will tell you to ignore race times, especially when the early pace was slow, as it was in the Florida Derby. I've tried in this instance, but just can't get past the fact that Dreaming of Julia (likely favorite in the Oaks) ran the same distance, the same day, over the same track, and did it a full two seconds faster. That's 10 lengths in a horse race, folks. So again, at 4 or 5-1, I will pass and seek value elsewhere.

Down to the top three, so it gets serious from here on:

Itsmyluckyday, Normandy Invasion and Revolutionary all qualify to find the winner's circle on Saturday. And, all have double digit odds! While Normandy Invasion sports the late-closing running style of a horse that wants to run a long distance, his pedigree says otherwise. Strong is his sire line (Tapit by Pulpit), but unproven is his dam line (Boston Harbor). I believe he will look like the winner in mid-stretch, but will fail to sustain his bid in the final furlong, and ultimately take the show spot.

Itsmyluckyday is trying to put an Elvis (his jockey) in the winner's circle for the first time in Derby history. I believe he is coming up to the race perfectly, having but one loss on his sophomore dance card, and that an excusable loss to Orb after a nine-week winter break. The race sets up perfectly for his running style. He should sit a perfect trip behind the pacesetters, swoop to the lead turning for home, hold off a beach charge from Normandy Invasion, and...

...fall just short to a rail-skimming Revolutionary. Yup, Calvin wins his fourth Derby by saving all the ground around the turns, and taking advantage of the sloppy track to win the roses. By War Pass, who earned $1.5 million in his career, out of Runup the Colors, who earned half a million herself (and is by the incomparable sire A.P. Indy) Revolutionary cannot only get the distance, but should love the wet going. His racing resume is ideal for a Derby winner. Running four times at age 2, he broke his maiden when the race distances got longer, at a mile over a wet track. At age 3, he is a perfect 2 for 2, having won the Withers at Aqueduct, and the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds. 

Now, you may recall that earlier (exactly five paragraphs earlier) someone stated that Todd Pletcher was an unspectacular 2 for 49 in the spring classics. That includes a record of 1 for 31 in the KY Derby. So why do I dare buck such a trend? 

I do so because that one win came in 2010 (Super Saver) over a sloppy track, with Calvin Borel in the saddle. Oh, and Super Saver was also owned by Winstar Farms, just like Revolutionary. By the way, did I mention that I nailed that 2010 exacta, which paid $152? Can lightning strike twice on Saturday? If you listen to the weather forecast, it's practically a sure thing!

With all due respect to the colts that are running in Saturday's Derby, the field of 10 fillies going postward for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday is nothing short of spectacular. Likely the best Oaks field ever, there are at least two of these girls that would be very competitive against the boys on Saturday. If Dreaming of Julia runs back to her last race, there is no one on the grounds that can beat her. She may bounce off of that huge effort in the Gulfstream Oaks, and if she does, Midnight Lucky should pick up the win. All of this adds up to a potentially historic weekend for Todd Pletcher, who trains both Revolutionary and Dreaming of Julia. If my predictions are correct, Pletcher will pull off the ultra-rare Derby-Oaks sweep.