April 2016
Supported By
Recruit 3 & You're FREE


Recruit at least 3 new Builder or Associate members in 2016 and your next membership renewal will be free. Affiliate members or members being reinstated within 1 year not included in promotion.

If you are referring the new member to  SIF Workers' Comp Program (which could pay for their first year's dues,) please make sure to TELL LAUREN (504.837.2700 or lauren@home-builders.org) that you recruited them prior to the Board of Directors meeting that month.

If your 2016 membership renewal comes up prior to recruiting the 3 members, your 2017 renewal will be comped. Only the first 3 members will be counted (recruiting 6 new members does not grant 2 years of membership renewal.)


Resources:
  • Use the SPIKE ROLODEX to help identify potential new members that you work with daily. Give the completed Rolodex to Lauren to find out who's already a member. 
There will be NO RECESSION in 2016!
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

Despite all the news to the contrary, the US economy is in pretty good shape, better than the financial pundits think. Sure, the stock market has taken a battering of late, exploration and production activity in the oil patch has been declining, and exports are performing poorly, but the rest of the economy is fine. The service sector continues to grow nicely and construction activity continues to increase. Let's take a closer look at the facts.
The recent tumble in equity prices has nothing to do with a slowing economy and is not the precursor of a recession. Rather, the declines are the result of three quite independent factors. First, as the Fed raises interest rates, the value of financial assets must decline. Remember, the Fed initially lowered rates to boost asset prices and stimulate spending. As this process slowly unwinds, the value of equities must decline. Second, corporate profits have been flat for several quarters, and third, even at today's somewhat lower equity values, P/E ratios remain high by historic standards.
As for exports, the US is much less dependent on them than most nations. Exports of goods to China total less than one percent of GDP, while exports of goods to Europe are about 1.5% of GDP. While exports of services such as movies, music and intellectual property add to these totals, they do not vary much with economic conditions. As a result, while a 10% decline in exports certainly hurts manufacturers and their employees and reduces GDP by about 0.2%, it is far from catastrophic in an economy growing by a healthy 2.5%.
Regarding falling oil and gas prices, the benefits to the economy are just beginning. Until now, the price declines have resulted in large cutbacks in exploration and production (E&P) activity, as well as related manufacturing, construction and oil services activity that supports oil and gas E&P. The key here is that cheaper energy prices have boosted household incomes by about $130 billion or $1,000/household. While to date most of this money has been socked away, I expect that to change and to see increased consumer spending this year and next as households perceive the recent price declines as somewhat permanent.
Most importantly, the rest of the economy is already doing well. Unemployment is at 4.9% and will decline further as the year progresses, and at 4.9%, unemployment is already at one of the lowest levels in decades. Moreover, home sales and prices are up, as is loan demand. In addition, tight labor markets are finally leading to sizable increases in hourly earnings, which will boost household spending further, and inflation, which has been completely dormant for several years, appears to be rising. This is a particularly welcome development given that Japan and Europe continue to fight deflation.
Lastly, services, which account for roughly 84% of GDP, and construction activity, which accounts for about 6% of GDP, both of which are almost entirely domestically focused, are in fine shape and growing nicely. During the past 12 months, construction activity increased by 10.4% and services grew by 3%. In short, the parts of the economy that are inwardly-centered are doing well, and the negative impacts of softer growth from abroad are not nearly strong enough to derail our economy. As for the upcoming election, let's fervently hope that the threats to dramatically raise taxes or increase the deficit do not come to pass.

Eclipse Reflective Housewrap
Builders and homeowners can now save time and money with RoyOMartin's Eclipse Reflective Housewrap. Eclipse is a reflective insulation that replaces traditional housewrap, saving builders 40% in time and labor, in addition cost savings on materials. Simply install Eclipse as you would standard OSB, and tape the seams for continuous insulation. Videos on installing Eclipse can be found at our website www.royomartin.com or on YouTube. 

In addition to time, labor, and material savings, the homeowner will enjoy energy savings and comfort in their home, with inside temperatures cooler in the summer months and warmer in the winter months. RoyOMartin's Eclipse is available FSC Certified, and is made right here in Louisiana.

To find out more about Eclipse and how it can transform your building process, you can visit our website or contact the sales rep in your area, Amanda Vincent, at amanda.vincent@royomartin.com.

From last month... 
HBAGNO Recognized as Authority in Resilient Construction
Click to watch HBAGNO President, Floyd Simeon, give ideas on how to stay safe in your home in extreme weather.

Recruit 3 & You're FREE
CONGRATULATIONS TO 
JOEL MARTINSEN of TERREBONNE INSURANCE AGENCY 
FOR RECRUITING 3 NEW MEMBERS SO FAR IN 2016!
Joel's next membership renewal will be free.

Joel is a long time member of HBAGNO, and has an extensive list of other accolades: 
  • National Rookie of the year NHBA recruitment
  • Multiple agent of year awards from the LHBA Workers Comp Fund
  • Specialist in Insurance for All Construction Trades(general liability, workers comp, builders risk, bonds, auto, )
  • Workers Compensation audit resolution consulting 
  • Started in Insurance Industry with an Insurance Company before going in to independent agency system
  • Put together exclusive general liability program for contractors
  • Been active in Insurance industry for 15 years -
  • Hobbies- Strength Training
  • Two Daughters at St. Philip Neri Catholic Church
  • Wife is a school nurse for Jefferson Parish Public Schools


Recruit at least 3 new Builder or Associate members in 2016 and your next membership renewal will be free. Affiliate members or members being reinstated within 1 year not included in promotion.

If you are referring the new member to  SIF Workers' Comp Program (which could pay for their first year's dues,) please make sure to TELL LAUREN (504.837.2700 or lauren@home-builders.org) that you recruited them prior to the Board of Directors meeting that month.

If your 2016 membership renewal comes up prior to recruiting the 3 members, your 2017 renewal will be comped. Only the first 3 members will be counted (recruiting 6 new members does not grant 2 years of membership renewal.)


Resources:
  • Use the SPIKE ROLODEX to help identify potential new members that you work with daily. Give the completed Rolodex to Lauren to find out who's already a member. 
SURPRISE Member Visits!
HBA Executive Officer, Jon Luther, President, Floyd Simeon, and Membership Director, Lauren Galliano, were joined by Harahan Mayor, Tina Miceli, visiting HBA member businesses in the Harahan/Elmwood area. Watch out, they just might stop by your business next!

Want to request a visit? Let Lauren know!


Harahan City Hall with CBO Kevin Johson
Harahan City Hall with CBO Kevin Johson

CORT Furniture
CORT Furniture

Triton Stone Group of New Orleans
Triton Stone Group of New Orleans
Floorco, Inc.
C.J. Delery Enterprises, Inc.
(sorry we missed you!)
Priority Floors
Brick & Block Products, LLC
Advanced Building
Products, Inc.


My Government Online
Tips for using Jefferson Parish's My Government Online (MGO) software: How to Upload Documents and Plan Revisions to your Project
No Housing Bubble
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at elliot@graphsandlaughs.net. His daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

Looking at 2016, the domestic economic landscape looks solid, albeit unspectacular. The unemployment rate should continue falling, house prices are likely to rise by 5%, and the economy will be led almost entirely by the continuing improvement in household balance sheets, and in conjunction with increased employment and slightly faster wage growth. Government spending will be slightly higher in 2016 (but not enough to matter), capital expenditures by firms will remain weak, and exports will continue to suffer due to the strong US dollar. The most serious domestic problem is weak inflation, and it should begin to increase. Despite continuing poor global economic growth, the American economy will not weaken, but is also unlikely to strengthen much. House prices are once again regularly in the news and have been rising for 43 straight months. In cities such as Boston, Denver and San Francisco, prices today are higher than they were during the peak of the housing boom. In other cities, while prices have not regained the ground they lost during the housing bust, they are rising smartly and are not far off the peak prices of last decade. That said, a housing bubble does not appear to be forming, and even if one is on the horizon, it certainly is not being credit-fueled, and thus is far less dangerous than what we recently experienced.
While in a few cities home prices are at or above the highs of the housing boom, on average, home prices are still well below their previous peaks. Depending upon the house price index used, sales prices are currently 5% to 10% below their 2006 peaks, and at levels first observed in early to middle 2005, six to 12 months before they peaked. Moreover, after adjusting for inflation, house prices are about 20% off their all-time highs. At the current rate of house price appreciation, it will take another four years for inflation-adjusted house prices to fully regain their 2006 levels. Despite the rhetoric, house prices are not nearly as high as they are being made out to be.
In addition, back in 2006, housing affordability was dismal. At that time, a family earning the median income barely had enough income to qualify for a conventional conforming mortgage for the US median-priced home. Today, that same household has almost 170% of the income needed to qualify for the median-priced US home. This is because house prices are lower and interest rates are substantially lower than they were almost a decade ago.
Two esoteric but very important financial measures reinforce the conclusions above. Both the price-to-rent ratio and the mortgage debt-to-GDP ratio have fallen precipitously. The price-to-rent ratio is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for equities, and the higher it is, the more homebuyers are willing to pay up front to receive a flow of future rent payments. At the peak, the price-to-rent ratio was easily 50% above what it averaged between 1983 and 2000. Today it is about 10% above the 1983 to 2000 average level, and almost 30% below the 2006 peak.
The ratio of all debt (most of which is mortgage debt) to GDP has fallen from 100% of GDP to 80% of GDP. Moreover, despite the recent run up in house prices, the mortgage debt-to GDP ratio has continued to decline. This reflects a return to prudent lending standards and reduced household leverage. Collectively the improvement in these ratios strongly suggest that we are not in the midst of a credit-induced lending bubble. In addition, housing starts remain about half of what they were during the prior peak. This means that our economy is far less dependent on residential construction activity than it was then.

To review, while house prices are up, inflation-adjusted prices are still years away from their peak levels. In addition, affordability remains high and both the price-to-rent and mortgage debt-to-GDP ratios are much lower than they were. These four indicators collectively indicate that there is probably no housing bubble, and even if there is one, it is not the result of increased household leverage, which is what primarily precipitated the last housing bust.
Member Rebate Program
The Member Rebate Program is a free member benefit of your State & Local Home Builders Association.

There are over 40 of the country's leading manufacturer brands participating in the Member Rebate Program.

Visit Member Benefits for more information, or CLICK HERE to view an online brochure with helpful information about the program.
In This Issue:
Recruit 3 & You're FREE
There will be NO RECESSION in 2016!
Eclipse Reflective Housewrap
From Last Month
NEW JOB POSTING

Also Supported By: 

 

 

 

 

Did you know you can renew your membership online? 

Just login from the HBAGNO homepage to renew your membership.

April Calendar of Events
All Events held at HBA office unless otherwise noted 

See details below for 
"Featured Events"

1) Crawfish Boil @ SouthPort Music Hall, 200 Monticello Ave

6) Professional Women in Building Happy Hour, 5:30-7pm

8) 2016 Housing Forecast @ 2pm, NOMAR Office, 3645 N. I-10 Service Road, Metairie

14) Advanced Building Practices Council Meeting @ 12pm, 320 Rio Vista, Jefferson

11) Executive Committee Meeting @ 3pm 

12) HBA Board of Directors Meeting @ 4pm

21) Parade of Homes Committee Meeting @ 1:30pm

28) MEMBERSHIP CONTACT DAY
FEATURED EVENTS
Wednesday, April 6
5:30 - 7pm


PWB Essential Oils 
Happy Hour

Location: HBA Office
Guest Speaker: Giselle Mundt
Eduating on the benefits of adding essential oils to your daily routine.

$15 for Members
Friday, April 8
2 - 4pm

Annual Housing Forecast
(Rescheduled from March 23)

NOMAR Office, 3645 N. I-10 Service Road, Metairie
$10 per person

Sponsored by

 
Thursday, April 14
12 - 1pm

Advanced Building Practices Council Meeting

Tour a new construction home being built to meet the Silver Level of the National Green Building Standard

Home site: 320 Rio Vista, Jefferson, LA

Lunch provided by


This meeting is open to all members thanks to our council sponsors


In Every Issue
JOB POSTINGS

Salesperson
Goldin Metals
Harvey, LA

Email:
or Visit:

Apply in person at Harvey facility.
QuickLinksQuick Links & Resources



* Under Compliance, click on Employers' Workers' Compensation Coverage Verification
NAHB Online Courses Logo
2016 Senior Officers of the Board

President, Floyd Simeon
Vice President, Mike LeCorgne
Treasurer, Frank Morse
Secretary, Michael Kraet
Immediate Past President, Roy Olsen

2016 Board of Directors

Steve Albert
John Arms
Alexis Brown
Nick Castjohn
Charlie Fontenelle
David Gaspard
Phil Hoffman
Kevin Katner

Jo Ann Kostik
Peter Lanaux
Bruce Layburn
Harold LeBlanc
Brian Mills
Scott Morse
Helmut Mundt
Randy Noel
Lynda Nugent Smith
Rolf Parelius
Kimberly Rooney
Dorothy Stanich
Zach Tyson
Kirk Williamson
Steve Wobbema
Wes Wyman


HBA Staff Contacts

Jon Luther, Executive Vice President
Philip Thomas, Education Director & NOEL Program Director  philip@home-builders.org
Lauren Galliano, Director of Membership & Industry Relations   lauren@home-builders.org
Rita Bautista, Governmental Affairs Representative    rita@home-builders.org
Shane Gray, Accountant  shane@home-builders.org


Did We Miss Something?
Please contact Lauren at the HBA office with any pertinent industry-related issues and/or professional achievements you'd like to share with your association members.

Feature Articles in upcoming issues of sticks & bricks or HBA's printed publication, the homebuilder quarterly(HQ), are FREE opportunities for HBA members to market themselves to 1,000+ industry professionals.

Click Here to Request Details and Submitter Deadlines