EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 26-Aug-16, ethanol production was 15.726 billion gallons annualized, down 92 mil gals from the previous week--with a weekly residual error of 606 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.281 bil gals annualized, down 215 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 141.699 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.08%. About 96.92% of all mogas (with 146.203 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 5 mil gals on the week to end at 879 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.286 bil gals vs EIA's Aug STEO forecast of 14.276 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.826 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 460 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all up over 4 cents this past week, except for D3 & D7 prices that were unchanged. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RINs are trading around $1.90, while the rest of the 2016 RIN prices are down this week: D4's are trading around $1, D5's around 98 cents, and D6's around 89 cents. There has been a lot of RIN price movement over the past few weeks as speculative buying and selling seems to be taking place.

 

Page 4 has the annualized average of EIA's weekly ethanol production estimates at 15.749 billion gallons for August, which is about 575 mil gals above what the EIA's August STEO had forecasted.