EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 19-Aug-16, ethanol production was 15.802 billion gallons annualized, down 15 mil gals from the previous week-with a weekly residual error of 640 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.311 bil gals annualized, down 184 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 142.022 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.08%. About 95.65% of all mogas (with 148.478 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 16 mil gals on the week to end at 874 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.273 bil gals vs EIA's Aug STEO forecast of 14.276 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.813 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 460 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all up over 5 cents this past week, except for D3 & D7 prices that were unchanged. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RINs are trading around $1.90, while the rest of the 2016 RIN prices are up this week: D4's are trading around $1, D5's around 98 cents, and D6's around 88 cents. There has been a lot of RIN price movement over the past few weeks as speculative buying and selling seems to be taking place.