EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 12-Aug-16, ethanol production was 15.818 billion gallons annualized, up 169 mil gals from the previous week and matching the previous record set back in July-with a weekly residual error of 489 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.496 bil gals annualized, down 108 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 143.82 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.08%. About 95.84% of all mogas (with 150.061 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 1 mil gals on the week to end at 858 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.268 bil gals vs EIA's Aug STEO forecast of 14.276 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.798 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 470 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all down over 6 cents again this past week, except for D3 & D7 prices that were up 2 cents. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RINs are trading around $1.90, while the rest of the 2016 RIN prices are up this week: D4's are trading around 95 cents, D5's around 93 cents, and D6's around 84 cents. There has been a lot of RIN price movement over the past few weeks as speculative buying and selling seems to be taking place. When the new EPA data comes out this week or next, we will be able to more accurately calculate 2014 carryover RINs into 2015 since the 2014 compliance deadline was August 1st.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins up last week 6.4 cents to 46.1 cents and were up again this week another 2.5 cents to 48.6 cents.