Record Yield Estimates Drive Up Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks
August 12th, 2016
Produced by Bill Holbrook
USDA WAOB released their August supply/demand estimates today, incorporating the first objective yield data of the season from the NASS Crop Production report. Both corn and soybeans are estimated to set records for yield this year with corn at 175.1 bu/acre and soybeans at 48.9 bu/acre.
Corn 2015/16 ethanol use was lowered 25 mbu based on the monthly grain crushings report. This was offset by a 25 mbu increase in exports. Ending stocks were raised 5 mbu. Average farm price was lowered $0.05 to $3.60 per bushel. 2016/17 production was increased 613 mbu to a record production of 15.2 billion bushels. Feed and residual was raised 175 mbu and exports were raised 125 mbu. Ending stocks were increased 328 mbu to 2.4 billion bushels which would be the largest ending stocks since 1987/88. Average farm price was lowered $0.25 to $3.15 per bushel.
Soybean 2015/16 crush was increased 10 mbu while exports were increased 85 mbu. Ending stocks were lowered 95 mbu. Average farm price was lowered $0.05 to $8.95 per bushel. 2016/17 production was estimated at 4.06 billion bushels, up 180 mbu from the previous month. Crush was increased 15 mbu and exports 30 mbu. Ending stocks were increased 40 mbu. Average farm price was lowered $0.40 to $9.10 per bushel.
Wheat 2016/17 production was increased 80 mbu, with increases across all classes. Food use was increased 5 mbu, feed and residual 30 mbu and exports 25 mbu. Ending stocks were increased 5 mbu. Average farm price was lowered $0.10 to $3.70 per bushel.
PRX reports will be updated and available next week with a full review of their impact at the ProExporter Summer Seminar August 18 & 19. Hope to see you there.
The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.
