EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 5-Aug-16, ethanol production was 15.649 billion gallons annualized, up 215 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 217 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.603 bil gals annualized, down 15 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 144.989 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.07%. About 96.55% of all mogas (with 150.169 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 6 mil gals on the week to end at 859 mil gals.

 

EIA's weekly import survey reported no ethanol imported last week, but the 2016 total is approximately 21.168 mil gals. The DOC data is only available for the first half of 2016 and has 12.4 mil gals of fuel ethanol coming into the US in 2016, while EPA data is only reporting 5 mil gals as generating Advanced (D5) ethanol RINs.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.243 bil gals vs EIA's Aug STEO forecast of 14.276 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.776 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 467 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all down over 5 cents this past week, except for D3 & D7 that were unchanged. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RINs are trading up around $1.90, while the rest of 2016 RIN prices continue to fall: D4's are trading around 93 cents, D5's around 99 cents, and D6's around 84 cents. I believe we're seeing a fall in RIN prices because weekly ethanol production continues to stay at record levels and the EPA's EMTS last month showed a large jump in D4 RIN generation. When the new EPA data comes out this month, we will be able to more accurately calculate 2014 carryover RINs into 2015 since the 2014 compliance deadline was August 1st.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling for the fourth week in a row to 39.7 cents.