EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 29-Jul-16, ethanol production was 15.433 billion gallons annualized, up 92 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -114 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.619 bil gals annualized, up 231 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 145.096 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.08%. About 96.79% of all mogas (with 149.908 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 9 mil gals on the week to end at 865 mil gals.

 

EIA's weekly import survey reported about 10.584 mil gals of ethanol imported last week, bringing the 2016 total to approximately 21.168 mil gals. The DOC data is only available through May of 2016 and has 1.9 mil gals of fuel ethanol coming into the US in 2016.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.133 bil gals vs EIA's July STEO forecast of 14.222 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.749 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 384 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all up a few cents over the past week. As of yesterday, prices fell a few cents with 2016 D3 & D7 RINs trading around $1.88, D4's around $1.02, D5's around 99 cents, and D6's around 94 cents.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling 4.3 cents last week to 44.7 cents and falling again this week 5 cents to 39.7 cents.