EPA EMTS: For the first five months of 2016, cellulosic ethanol generated 1,776,463 D3 RINs. If this pace continues, some 4.26 million cellulosic ethanol RINs will be produced in 2016. EPA projected 20 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol to be produced when they lowered the statutory Cellulosic biofuel requirement from 4.25 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons to 230 million gallons. The majority of this requirement will be filled by renewable compressed natural gas (CNG) and renewable liquified natural gas (LNG). So far, for Jan-May 2016, 35.86 mil D3 CNG RINs were generated and 27.06 mil D3 LNG RINs. There's also a small amount (114,835) of cellulosic heating oil generating D7 RINs that can be used to fill the Cellulosic biofuel RVO. If we adjust for RIN generation errors, 62.964 million cellulosic 2016 RINs are so far available for 2016 or 2017 compliance.
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly Survey Data: For April 2016, denatured fuel ethanol production was 1.178 billion gallons and imports were about 126,000 gals. Refiner and blender net input of denatured fuel ethanol was 1.151 bil gals and the calculated inclusion rate for the 11.484 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.02%. About 98.9% of all mogas (11.484 bil gals) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol ending stock were 882 mil gals, down 55 mil gals from March and the residual disappearance was -13 mil gals (pg 2 & 3).
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Data: Using the July forecasts, the STEO is forecasting 2016 & 2017 ethanol production at 15.019 & 15.062 bil gals. The EIA lowered its forecasts for mogas consumption to 142.869 & 142.762 bil gals in 2016 & 2017, while also lowering ethanol domestic use in 2016 & 2017 to 14.222 & 14.258 bil gals. Thus, implying ethanol net exports in 2016 & 2017 are 797 & 804 mil gals (pg 4). EIA's WTI crude oil price forecast continues to increase, averaging $43.4/bbl in 2016 & $52.17/bbl in 2017 (pg 4 & 5). The Jul-STEO has forecasted wholesale mogas prices above ethanol futures prices for the farmbelt through August 2016, only counting a small portion of D6 RINs that are priced into spot ethanol (pg 6).
DOC US Census Foreign Trade Data: For 2016 through May, fuel and industrial ethanol exports were 401 mil gals, of which 384 mil gals was used for fuel. For 2016 YTD, China for the first time is leading the way receiving 129.4 mil gals, Canada 80.4, Brazil 62.5, South Asia (including India) 27.2, South Korea 21, & Southeast Asia (including Philippines) 18.9 mil gals to name a few. If this pace continues, 921 mil gals of fuel and 41 mil gals of industrial ethanol will be exported this year (pg 8). For 2016 through May, fuel ethanol imports were 1.9 mil gals, with 1.86 mil gals imported in May mainly from Guatemala (pg 9).
DOC vs EPA EMTS Ethanol Exports & Imports: For 2016 through May, the DOC has denatured for fuel use ethanol exports at 217 mil gals. If we assume all D6 RINs exported were ethanol, which was likely the case. This can be compared to EPA's EMTS data of 164 million D6 RINs separated for export through June 10th, 2016 (pg 8).
Looking at 2016 through May fuel ethanol imports, EPA had 2016 advanced ethanol generating 1.292 million D5 RINs that are likely all importer generated vs DOC's 1.9 mil gals.
USDA Grain Crushings and Co-products Production Data: In May, dry mill plants used 379 million bushels of corn to make fuel ethanol, while wet mill plants used 46 mil bu. For crop year 15-16 through May corn use for ethanol production was 3.868 billion bushels. If this pace continues, 5.158 billion bushels will be used in 15-16. PRX estimates 15-16 corn to ethanol use at 5.266 billion bushels, USDA is estimating 5.225 billion bushels (pg 13).
Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452
|
