EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 8-Jul-16, ethanol production was 15.433 billion gallons annualized, up 307 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 405 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.127 bil gals annualized, down 584 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 140.362 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.06%. About 94.42% of all mogas (with 148.663 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 18 mil gals on the week to end at 888 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.057 bil gals vs EIA's July STEO forecast of 14.222 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.673 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 384 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all rising over the past week. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.82, D4's are trading around $1.02, D5's around 99 cents, and D6's around 97 cents. RIN prices continue to rise as more market participants slowly realize that the RIN bank is likely going to be depleted in 2017 unless EPA lowers the future RVOs.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rising 2.5 cents last week to 60.4 cents.