EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 1-Jul-16, ethanol production was 15.126 billion gallons annualized, down 292 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -521 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.711 bil gals annualized setting another new record high, up 92 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 146.019 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.07%. About 97.38% of all mogas (with 149.954 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 16 mil gals on the week to end at 905 mil gals.

 

EIA's weekly import data survey showed about 2.94 mil gals of fuel ethanol imported over the past week, this is the second time in a row the weekly data has showed ethanol imports in 2016. The Department of Commerce for May reported 1.86 million gallons of fuel ethanol imported mainly from Guatemala (1.841 mil gals) and some from the UK and France. EPA's EMTS, that has data current as of June 10th, 2016, also reported 1.292 million importer generated D5 RINs that could be the sugarcane ethanol imported from Guatemala.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.022 bil gals vs EIA's June STEO forecast of 14.296 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.657 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 366 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all rising over the past week. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.81, D4's are trading around 98 cents, D5's around 95 cents, and D6's around 93 cents. RIN prices continue to rise as more market participants slowly realize that the RIN bank is likely going to be depleted in 2017.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rising 6.7 cents last week to 59.7 cents and are up 2.5 cents further this week to 60.4 cents.