EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 17-Jun-16, ethanol production was 14.788 billion gallons annualized, down 784 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -472 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.265 bil gals annualized, up 92 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 141.684 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.07%. If we removed the denaturant, which EIA's survey has reported historically at about 2%, then the ethanol inclusion rate would be 9.87% vs EPA's 2016 Renewable fuel percentage standard of 10.1%. About 93.91% of all mogas (with 150.876 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 3 mil gals on the week to end at 887 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 13.938 bil gals vs EIA's June STEO forecast of 14.296 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.576 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 362 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all rising over the past week, except for D3 & D7 RINs. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.77, D4's are trading around 88 cents, D5's around 85 cents, and D6's around 84 cents.

 

Page 4 shows EIA's ethanol production estimate falling off its record high & JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rose .7 cents last week to 54.7 cents