EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 10-Jun-16, ethanol production was 15.572 billion gallons annualized, up 108 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 361 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.173 bil gals annualized, up 277 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 140.669 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.08%. If we removed the denaturant, which EIA's survey has reported historically at about 2%, then the ethanol inclusion rate would be 9.87% vs EPA's 2016 Renewable fuel percentage standard of 10.1%. About 93.74% of all mogas (with 150.061 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 40 mil gals on the week to end at 890 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 13.941 bil gals vs EIA's June STEO forecast of 14.296 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.547 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 394 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all rising over the past week, except for D3 & D7 RINs. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.77, D4's are trading around 87 cents, D5's around 84 cents, and D6's around 83 cents.