EPA EMTS: For the first four months of 2016, cellulosic ethanol generated 1,380,611 D3 RINs. If this pace continues, some 4.1 million cellulosic ethanol RINs will be produced in 2016. EPA projected 20 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol to be produced when they lowered the statutory Cellulosic biofuel requirement from 4.25 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons to 230 million gallons. The majority of this requirement will be filled by renewable compressed natural gas (CNG) and renewable liquified natural gas (LNG). So far, for Jan-Apr 2016, 27.23 mil D3 CNG RINs were generated and 20.03 mil D3 LNG RINs. There's also a small amount (114,835) of cellulosic heating oil generating D7 RINs that can be used to fill the Cellulosic biofuel RVO.
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly Survey Data: For March 2016, denatured fuel ethanol production was 1.294 billion gallons and imports were a mere 84,000 gals. Refiner and blender net input of denatured fuel ethanol was 1.17 bil gals and the calculated inclusion rate for the 11.68 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.02%. If we removed the denaturant, which EIA's survey historically has at about 2% of production, then the ethanol inclusion rate would be 9.82% for March. About 95.2% of all mogas (12.268 bil gals) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol ending stock were 937 mil gals, down 29 mil gals from February and the residual disappearance was 58 mil gals (pg 2 & 3).
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Data: Using the June forecasts, the STEO is forecasting 2016 & 2017 ethanol production at 15.004 & 15.073 bil gals. The EIA is continually forecasting mogas consumption higher every month now at 143.37 & 142.878 bil gals in 2016 & 2017, while also increasing ethanol domestic use in 2016 & 2017 to 14.296 & 14.27 bil gals. Thus, implying ethanol net exports in 2016 & 2017 are 709 & 803 mil gals (pg 4). EIA's WTI crude oil price forecast continues to increase, averaging $43/bbl in 2016 & $52/bbl in 2017 (pg 4 & 5). The Jun-STEO has forecasted wholesale mogas prices above ethanol futures prices for the farmbelt through August 2016, only counting a small portion of D6 RINs that are priced into spot ethanol (pg 6).
DOC US Census Foreign Trade Data: For 2016 through April, fuel and industrial ethanol exports were 345 mil gals, of which 331 mil gals was used for fuel. For 2016 YTD, China for the first time is leading the way receiving 109.8 mil gals, Canada 59, Brazil 56.5, South Asia (including India) 27.1, Southeast Asia (including Philippines) 18.8 & South Korea 18.5 mil gals to name a few. If this pace continues, 992 mil gals of fuel and 43 mil gals of industrial ethanol will be exported this year (pg 8). For 2016 through April, fuel ethanol imports were a mere 40,325 gals (pg 9).
DOC vs EPA EMTS Ethanol Exports & Imports: For 2016 through April, the DOC has denatured for fuel use ethanol exports at 186 mil gals. If we assume all D6 RINs exported were ethanol, which was likely the case. This can be compared to EPA's EMTS data of 154 million D6 RINs separated for export through April (pg 8).
Looking at 2016 through April fuel ethanol imports, EPA's 2016 importer & foreign generated D5 RINs were nonexistent, so DOC's 40,325 gallons of ethanol likely generated D6 RINs and were not Brazilian sugarcane ethanol.
USDA Grain Crushings and Co-products Production Data: In April, dry mill plants used 350 million bushels of corn to make fuel ethanol, while wet mill plants used 42 mil bu. For crop year 15-16 through April corn use for ethanol production was 3.441 billion bushels. If this pace continues, 5.161 billion bushels will be used in 15-16. PRX estimates 15-16 corn to ethanol use at 5.266 billion bushels, USDA is estimating 5.25 billion bushels (pg 13).
