EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 3-Jun-16, ethanol production was 15.464 billion gallons annualized, up 707 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 593 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.896 bil gals annualized, down 277 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 138.363 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.04%. About 94.07% of all mogas (with 147.079 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 23 mil gals on the week to end at 849 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 13.954 bil gals vs EIA's June STEO forecast of 14.296 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.52 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 434 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all rising over the past week. As of yesterday, prices rose a cents or more: 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.79, D4's are trading around 87 cents, D5's around 84 cents, and D6's around 83 cents.

 

Page 4 shows the large jump up in EIA's ethanol production estimates last week, reaching the highest level so far this year at 15.464 bil gals annualized.