EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 13-May-16, ethanol production was 14.573 billion gallons annualized, down 215 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -499 mil gals. Refiner input was 14.111 bil gals annualized, up 430 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 140.9 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.02%. About 93.96% of all mogas (with 149.954 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 6 mil gals on the week to end at 886 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 13.947 bil gals vs EIA's May STEO forecast of 14.266 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.441 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 507 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all relatively unchanged over the past week. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.75. 2016 D4's are trading around 79 cents, D5's around 77 cents, and D6's around 74 cents. EPA released the 2017 RVOs today, which has led to 2016 RIN prices jumping up: D4's are trading around 92 cents already today & D6's around 84 cents and likely to keep rising.

 

Page 4 now has EPA's 2017 implied Conventional biofuel demand at 14.8 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons, of which most will be filled by conventional corn and sorghum ethanol. However, each year more and more of this increasing conventional demand is being filled by nonadvanced biodiesel and renewable diesel. JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol gross margin rose 3.6 cents over last week to 46 cents.