EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week ending 29-Apr-16, ethanol production was 14.188 billion gallons annualized, down 61 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -791 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.989 bil gals annualized, down 123 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 140.054 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.99%. About 95.89% of all mogas (with 146.065 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 24 mil gals on the week to 932 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 13.927 bil gals vs EIA's STEO forecast of 14.311 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.39 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 537 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all falling a few cents over the past week, except D3 & D7 RINs which rose 2 cents. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.75. 2016 D4's are trading around 79 cents, D5's around 75 cents, and D6's around 73 cents.

 

Page 4 has EIA's weekly estimates of ethanol production continuing to decline as was the case this same time last year as some plants are down for maintanence and a few have cut back production slightly, leaving the 4-week annualized average at 14.284 bil gals--much lower than EIA's Apr-STEO forecast of April ethanol production at 14.932 bil gals annualized.