EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 15-Apr-16, ethanol production was 14.434 billion gallons annualized, up 15 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of -139 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.727 bil gals annualized, down 215 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 137.441 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.99%. About 94.67% of all mogas (with 145.173 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 11 mil gals to 928 mil gals.

 

Page 2 has PRX's calculation using EIA's weekly estimates and DOC import/export data for the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.147 bil gals vs EIA's STEO forecast of 14.311 bil gals. Yet, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.307 bil gals, leaving a residual disappearance of 840 mil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all falling a few cents over the past week. As of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices are trading around $1.73. 2016 D4's are trading around 82 cents, D5's around 80 cents, and D6's around 74 cents.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol gross margin increasing again last week to 44.9 cents. Some of this increase can be attributed to JSA adjusting their gross margin calculation to now include value added through corn oil extraction, previously JSA had just decreased expenses by 4 cents to account for corn oil profits. JSA estimates expenses excluding principal, interest, and depreciation at 24 cents per gallon now.