EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 25-Mar-16, ethanol production was 15.249 billion gallons annualized, down 46 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 715 bil gals. Refiner input was 13.681 bil gals annualized, up 354 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 136.842 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10%. About 96.3% of all mogas (with 142.099 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 21 mil gals to 970 mil gals.

 

Page 2 uses EIA's weekly estimates to calculate 2016 year-to-date annualized average of ethanol domestic disappearance at 14.271 bil gals, which can be compared to EIA's March STEO forecast of ethanol blended into motor gasoline at 14.258 bil gals. However, EIA's 2016 YTD annualized average of weekly estimates of domestic refiner and blender net input of fuel ethanol is only 13.188 bil gals, leaving a residual dissappearance of 1.083 bil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Thursday 2016 RIN prices showing little change over the past week. However, as of yesterday, 2016 D3 & D7 RIN prices fell two cents and are trading around $1.78. 2016 D4's are trading around 79 cents, D5's around 76 cents, and D6's around 74 cents.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling the last two weeks down to 22.4 cents.