PRX Question: When Will El Nino End and a Downturn to La Nina Begin?

PRX Email Archive

Produced by Bill Hudson

According to today's latest forecast from NOAA, shown below, "almost immediately!"

But note the very wide range of model inputs, and also that the dashed line average does not make the plunge all the way down to 0.5 degrees, the official upper bound of a La Nina, until late in the growing season.

From other reading I do, I personally don't trust this "official forecast," and some commercial meteorologists are seeing the same thing.

One of my associates said, "I guess when NOAA has a model that is designed to predict the end of El Nino, it will keep trying to force an end to the thing."

There's absolutely nothing for us to do but to remain "uncertain but on alert." More in a week or two.

Reminder. Our climatologist Roy Spencer will focus on ENSO and its "teleconnections" to US corn yield on March 21 at the PRX annual seminar. Register here.

Bill
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Bill Hudson
The ProExporter Network

PS: Early registration applies through March 4. Agenda here.

The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.