EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 5-Feb-16, ethanol production was 14.895 billion gallons annualized, up 154 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 1.218 bil gals. Refiner input was 13.189 bil gals annualized, up 661 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 132.691 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.94%. About 94.63% of all mogas (with 140.223 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 25 mil gals to 967 mil gals.

 

The February WASDE increased 2015-2016 corn used for ethanol production by 25 million bushels to 5.225 billion bushels.

 

The Feb-STEO is forecasting 2016 ethanol consumption at 14.235 billion gallons, which assumes 627 mil gals will be consumed in blends higher than E10. The RINs from these gallons can be used to help fill the RFS2 2016 conventional biofuel demand of 14.5 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons.

 

Page 1 & 2 has the Feb-STEO forecasting 2016 US ethanol production at 14.9 billion gallons vs the average of EIA's weekly ethanol production estimates annualized at 15.042 bil gals.

 

Page 2 has the Feb-STEO forecasting 2017 US ethanol production at 14.816 bil gals. It also has 2016 & 2017 US motor gasoline consumption forecasted at 141.904 & 141.493 bil gals, respectively.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all climbing a few cents again over last week and continuing to rise slightly at the beginning of this week. As of yesterday, D6's are trading around 71 cents, D5's 76 cents, and D4's 78 cents.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling 1.9 cents last week to 26.2 cents.