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Ethanol Update: Production Down, Refiner Input Down, Stocks Up
 
Produced by Ryan Ruikka


EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 29-Jan-16, ethanol production was 14.742 billion gallons annualized, down 31 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 1.726 bil gals. Refiner input was 12.528 bil gals annualized, down 769 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 125.359 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.99%. About 97.77% of all mogas (with 128.218 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 39 mil gals to 942 mil gals.
 
Page 2 has the 2016 year-to-date annualized average of EIA's weekly U.S. product supplied of finished motor gasoline at 132.261 bil gals, which is far below the Jan-STEO motor gasoline consumption forecast of 141.9 bil gals for 2016. This is due to seasonally lower gasoline demand in the first few months of the calendar year. Peak demand occurs during the summer driving season and brings up the average of the weekly data.
 
Page 3 has OPIS's last Friday 2016 RIN prices all climbing around 5 cents over the week and continuing to rise at the beginning of this week. As of yesterday, D6's are trading around 69 cents, D5's 74 cents, and D4's 76 cents.
 
Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rising 7.4 cents last week to 28.1 cents.
 
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Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452