Market Update: EPA's EMTS has complete 2015 D6 RIN data for conventional biofuel exceeding the conventional biofuel demand of 14.05 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons that are built into the Renewable fuel RVO of 16.93 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons. D6 RIN data is generated from three different types of conventional biofuels that reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20%: non-cellulosic ethanol, biodiesel, and non-ester renewable diesel. The total of these D6 RIN data generations adjusted for errors, noncompliance, & exports is 14.085 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons or RINs, with non-cellulosic ethanol accounting for 14.02 billion RINs. Obligated parties can use these 2015 D6 RINs to help comply with their 2015 Renewable fuel RVO, fill a deficit from their 2014 Renewable fuel RVO, carryover these RINs into 2016, or sell them to another party.
Some ethanol production also qualifies to generate D5 RINs by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50%. In 2015, 24.83 million domestic and 88.95 million foreign non-cellulosic ethanol D5 RINs were generated and can be used to help fill the 2015 Advanced biofuel RVO of 2.88 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons.
Cellulosic ethanol production in 2015 generated only 2.181 million D3 RINs that can be used to help fill the 123 million ethanol-equivalent gallon 2015 RVO for Cellulosic biofuel. The majority of this RVO is now filled by renewable compressed natural gas (72.77 mil RINs) and renewable liquidifed natural gas (53.16 mil RINs), which EPA classified as a Cellulosic biofuel on August 18th, 2014.
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly Data: For the latest month of actual data in November, ethanol production was 1.243 billion gallons with a monthly residual error of 50 mil gals. Refiner input was 1.109 bil gals and the calculated inclusion rate for the 11.039 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10.05%. About 96.2% of all mogas (with 11.472 bil gals) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol ending stock were 838 mil gals and fuel ethanol imports were 21 mil gals, while fuel and industrial ethanol exports were 61 mil gals.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Data: Using the January forecasts, the STEO is forecasting slightly higher 2015 ethanol production at 14.785 bil gals, 2016 higher at 14.905 bil gals, & its new 2017 forecast at 14.862 bil gals. The EIA is forecasting mogas consumption slightly higher at 140.375 bil gals in 2015, higher at 141.9 bil gals in 2016, & 141.844 bil gals in 2017, while also increasing ethanol blending in 2015 to 13.914 bil gals, 2016 to 14.240 bil gals, & 2017 to 14.194 bil gals. Thus, implying ethanol net exports in 2015 are 870 mil gals, 2016 are 665 mil gals, & 2017 are 668 mil gals (pg 4). EIA's WTI crude oil price averaged $48.69/bbl in 2015, its 2016 forecast is way lower averaging $38.5/bbl, & 2017 is at $47/bbl (pg 4 & 5). The Jan-STEO had Decemeber wholesale mogas prices averaging one cent more than JSA's average ethanol spot prices for the farmbelt, only counting a portion of D6 RINs that are priced into spot ethanol (pg 6).
DOC US Census Foreign Trade Data: Fuel and industrial ethanol exports in November were 58.98 mil gals with Canada receiving the most at 23.24 mil gals, China 16.41, Philippines 5.62, Mexico 3.91, South Korea 3.55, Peru 3.26, and Brazil only .007 mil gals to name a few. For Jan to Nov of 2015, 754 mil gals of US ethanol have been exported. If this pace continues, 823 mil gals of fuel and industrial ethanol will be exported this year (pg 8). Fuel ethanol imports were 20.7 mil gals in November, all coming from Brazil. Jan-Nov 2015 fuel ethanol imports are now at 83.9 mil gals, with 83.4 mil gals coming from Brazil (pg 9).
EIA vs DOC vs EPA Ethanol Exports & Imports: Comparing fuel & industrial ethanol export data for 2015 YTD the EIA's PSM is reporting 762.47 mil gals exported through November, which is above what the DOC reported at 754.15 mil gals (pg 8). The DOC actually breaks down the different types of ethanol exports and has denatured for fuel use exports for 2015 through Nov at 342 mil gals. This can be compared to EPA's 355 million D6 RIN exports for 2015.
Looking at 2015 fuel ethanol imports, the EIA-814 monthly survey has 81.9 mil gals imported through November vs the DOC's 83.9 mil gals (pg 9). We can further compare this to EPA's 2015 importer generated 88.95 million D5 RINs (assuming that only non-cellulosic fuel ethanol, most likely Brazilian sugarcane fuel ethanol, is being imported with D5 RINs, as has been the case the past two years). If we assume these rates of imports continue for the rest of the year, between 89 to 91 mil gals of fuel ethanol will likely be imported in 2015.
USDA Grain Crushings and Co-products Production Data: In November, dry mill plants used 388.907 million bushels of corn to make fuel ethanol, while wet mill plants used 46.126 mil bu. For crop year 15-16 through November corn use for ethanol production has been 1.304 billion bushels. PRX estimates full crop year 15-16 corn to ethanol use at 5.197 billion bushels, USDA is estimating 5.2 billion bushels (pg 13).
