The long recovery from the Great Recession is gradually gaining ground in much of the developed world--led by the U.S.--while economic activity is slowing in much of the developing world--especially China. That global imbalance underlies recent financial volatility, triggered by rising doubt that China can manage a smooth rebalancing from industry to services and investment to consumption. China's problems are large and its economic data opaque, engendering considerable uncertainty in the early days of the New Year. Still, the most likely outcome suggests the moderate-paced U.S. expansion will endure, partially buffering global growth.
The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.
