EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 1-Jan-16, ethanol production was 15.311 billion gallons annualized, up 394 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 2.428 bil gals. Refiner input was 12.098 bil gals annualized, down 1.393 bil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 120.993 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10%. About 96.47% of all mogas (with 125.42 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 32 mil gals to 889 mil gals.

 

For 2016, EPA has set conventional biofuel demand at 14.5 billion ethanol equivalent gallons. EIA's Dec-STEO is forecasting 2016 ethanol consumption at 14.11 bil gals, which is nearly 550 mil gals above the estimated E10 blend wall. Thus impling more ethanol must be consumed as E15/E85 or other mid-level blends in 2016. Also, an additional 490 mil ethanol equivalent gals need to be blended in 2016 and will likely come from imported non-advanced biomass-based diesel. Obligated parties can additionally use carryover RINs in 2016 to help meet their renewable fuel percentage standards.

 

Page 3 has yesterdays OPIS 2016 D6 RIN prices trading around 69.5 cents, D5's around 73 cents, D4's near 74 cents. The 2016 Cellulosic Wavier Credit is priced at $1.33.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling below breakeven to 18.8 cents this week, that's a nearly 10 cent drop from last week.