EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 27-Nov-15, ethanol production was 14.655 billion gallons annualized, down 797 mil gals from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 750 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.429 bil gals annualized, down 138 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 134.275 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 10%. About 94.38% of all mogas (with 142.278 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 16 mil gals to 840 mil gals.
EPA's Final Rule has 2015 Conventional biofuel demand at 14.05 bil RINs. EIA's 2015 YTD average ethanol domestic refiner input is 13.45 bil gals, which is the equivalent of 13.45 bil RINs. Thus, 600 million more RINs are needed to fill this conventional biofuel demand in 2015. 238 mil non-advanced biomass-based diesel RINs generated from Jan to Sept 2015 will likely be used, leaving 362 mil RINs that need to be retired for compliance in 2015. This extra demand will likely come from more ethanol blending and non-advanced biomass-based diesel blending; however, it can also be filled by any advanced biofuel or carryover RINs from last year.
Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 RIN prices all surging following EPA's release of its Final Rule on Monday: D6's are around 80 cents, D5's around 83 cents, & D4's 87 cents. RIN prices from all years still trading (2013-2016) have also all jumped up due to EPA increasing the RVOs for years 2014-2016.
Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rising 4.9 cents last week to 34.2 cents. It also has EPA's Final Rule for 2014 Conventional biofuel demand at 13.61 bil gals, 14.05 bil gals for 2015, & 14.5 bil gals for 2016.
Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452
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