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Ethanol Update: Production Way Up, Refiner Input Up, Stocks Up
 
Produced by Ryan Ruikka

EIA Weekly Data:  For the latest week of 20-Nov-15, ethanol production was 15.453 billion gallons annualized, up 506 mil gals from the previous week (the highest weekly production in history)--and with a weekly residual error of 1.488 bil gals. Refiner input was 13.567 bil gals annualized, up 230 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 136.314 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.95%. About 99.67% of all mogas (with 136.759 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 16 mil gals to 824 mil gals.
 
Page 1 & 2 has the 2015 year-to-date annualized average of EIA's weekly U.S. oxygenate plant production of fuel ethanol at 14.678 bil gals.
 
Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 Friday RIN prices all rising a few more cents from last Friday's prices and holding steady early this week. The 2015 D5/D6 RIN price spread has increased to 21 cents.
 
Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins falling last week 11.1 cents to 29.3 cents. It also has revised PRX estimates for Conventional biofuel demand that is likely to be released in EPA's Final Rule: 13.6 bil gals for 2014, 14.21 bil gals for 2015, & 14.38 bil gals for 2016.
 
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Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452

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The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.