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Ethanol Update: Production Up, Refiner Input Down, Stocks Down
 
Produced by Ryan Ruikka

EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 25-Sept-15, ethanol production was 14.456 billion gallons annualized, up 77 mil gals from the previous week-and with a weekly residual error of 59 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.506 bil gals annualized, down 169 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 135.824 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.94%. About 98.22% of all mogas (with 138.292 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 5 mil gals to 789 mil gals.
 
Page 2 has updated 2015 YTD average annualized estimates of weekly ethanol imports at 31 mil gals/yr and exports at 894 mil gals/yr. In our weekly report, we use EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly import and export data to estimate weekly imports & exports because EIA weekly data does not contain ethanol exports.
 
Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 Friday RIN prices all increasing a few cents again, while the D5/D6 price spread was nearly unchanged and was at 11.62 cents.
 
Page 4 has last weeks JSA's Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins rising 4 cents, but yesterday's margins fell back down to 33.4 cents.

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Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452

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The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.