My presentation Thursday afternoon to the National Grain Car Council was entitled, "
WORLD GRAIN 1975-2025: Price and Transportation Patterns (with Close-up of US Corn and Soybeans 2015-16)." It contains updated global points from our August Seminar focused on movement patterns of the 2015-16 US crops. (As shown in the chart below, one prominent update is the coming reduction of China's rural corn price from $9/bu to about $8/bu, possibly in November.)
Listen to the podcast here.
Our Question List for Blue Sky Model #41 (2014-2024) at the upcoming Nov-18 KC Roundtable is as follows:
- Crude oil price forecast--go a bit lower in nearby two years?
- Consider World Bank Overview
- US shale oil play swings with world price?
- Impacts on US grain transportation?
- World corn and feedgrain exports
- China and sorghum
- Down some on US share of trade vs. S. Amer?
- Brazil corn competitive to southeast US?
- Independent of China's GDP growth (or decline)?
- EPA Nov-30 deadline for 2014-15 RFS Rule?
- Foreign export progress, including to China, prospects
- Forecasting corn-soybean input costs
- Especially land values and rental costs declining?
- US economy and exchange rate forecast?
- Farmer holding, how long?
- How much support money for corn and soybeans is really available from Fed?
- Credible odds for a very poor cornbelt output next year?
- Impossible to predict, yes, but how do we monitor?
If you have never attended one of our Roundtables, please consider doing so. Email nancy@prxgeo.com to get on mailing list for agenda and specifics. The attendance is limited to about 30 or so staff, outside experts, and clients--and the approach is Q&A rather than set presentations. Fun and valuable! (We will come up with answers to the whole list above, and then generate and share the numerical implications. This is not an "academic exercise," but a realistic way to generate a "commercial control case." Will we change it as the world changes? You bet, and immediately! No one has a real crystal ball, the idea is to forecast a fraction better than your competition.)
