EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 11-Sept-15, ethanol production was 14.732 billion gallons annualized, up 46 mil gals from the previous week-and with a weekly residual error of 543 mil gals. Refiner input was 13.460 bil gals annualized, down 276 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 134.581 bil gals of mogas receiving ethanol was 9.99%. About 97.83% of all mogas (with 137.709 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 15 mil gals.

 

Under crop year forecasts, the USDA WASDE has updated their 14-15 corn to ethanol use up by 5 mil bushels to 5.205 bil bushels, while PRX has a slightly higher forecast of 5.242 bil bushels.

 

Page 2 has the 2015 YTD annualized weekly product supplied of finished motor gasoline at 140.018 bil gals, which is in line with the Sept-STEO forecast of motor gasoline consumption at 139.919 bil gals. The STEO team is also forecasting 2016 mogas consumption at 140.304 bil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 Friday RIN prices all falling again and it appears the market is expecting the final rule for the 2014 & 2015 RVOs to not be binding, as production numbers are up for most renewable fuels. For the first seven months of 2015, over 9.79 million RINs have been generated (adjusting for errors, non-compliance, & exports) and if this pace continues over 16.78 million RINs will be generated in 2015.

 

Page 4 has weekly ethanol production up for the first two weeks of September and could be higher than the STEO's Sept monthly forecast, which annualized is 14.399 bil gals.

   

 

 

 

Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst

The ProExporter Network

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Fax:734-475-0452