EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 4-Sept-15, ethanol production was 14.686 billion gallons annualized, up from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 221 mil gals. Refiner Input was 13.736 bil gals annualized, down 383 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 138.169 bil gals of MoGas receiving ethanol was 9.94%. About 99.96% of all MoGas (with 138.231 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were down 15 mil gals.

 

Page 1 & 2 has 2015 YTD weekly average annualized ethanol production at 14.662 bil gals, which is in line with the latest September STEO's forecast of 14.63 bil gals. The STEO team also increased the 2016 forecast 170 mil gals to 14.653 bil gals.

 

Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 Friday RIN prices all falling again and the D5/D6 RIN price spread making another sharp decline to 8 cents. It appears the market agrees with PRX that there will be increased conventional biofuel demand in EPA's Final Rule scheduled to be released by the end of Nov.

 

Page 4 has JSA's Nebraska Group 3 weekly ethanol margins nearly unchanged at 36.7 cents last week, keeping the last five weeks of margins in the 36 to 38 cent range.

 

   

 

 

 

Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst

The ProExporter Network

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