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Ethanol Update: Production Unchanged, Refiner Input Up, Stocks Up
 
Produced by Ryan Ruikka

EIA Weekly Data: For the latest week of 14-Aug-15, ethanol production was 14.793 billion gallons annualized, unchanged from the previous week--and with a weekly residual error of 116 mil gals. Refiner Input was 13.92 bil gals annualized, up 153 mil gals from last week, and the calculated inclusion rate for the 139.288 bil gals of MoGas receiving ethanol was 9.99%. About 93.62% of all MoGas (with 148.778 bil gals annualized) did indeed receive ethanol. Ethanol stocks were up 1 mil gals.
 
Page 2 has EIA's latest August STEO forecast of both ethanol and motor gasoline consumption increasing from last month to 14.506 & 14.483 bil gals of ethanol and 139.973 & 140.479 bil gals of motor gasoline in 2015 & 2016, respectively.
 
Page 3 has OPIS's 2015 Friday RIN prices showing the D5/D6 RIN price spread holding around 24 cents, off its peak of 38 cents. EIA weekly data import data has failed to capture any ethanol coming into the US, but we should start to see in the July monthly data a few shipments of Brazilian ethanol coming onshore.
 
Page 4 has Nebraska Group 3 ethanol margins increasing 6.3 cents last week to 37.9 cents.
 
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Ryan Ruikka
Energy Analyst
The ProExporter Network
114 S. Main St. Suite 100
Chelsea, MI 48118
Off: 734-475-0454
Fax:734-475-0452

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The analysis above is not intended as a trade recommendation. The analysis and forecasts are based on available public data and on the best judgment of PRX, but cannot be guaranteed to conform to future reality.