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November 2013
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The Origins of Demography 

 

As I look toward retirement, writing a few more articles becomes important to me.  Not articles for professional journals - rather articles for people who are able to enjoy and use demography because the data is available at home. With the internet, demography moved from a base at the university library to everyone's science.

 

Glancing at texts from Weeks and Rowland shows a reference to the origins of demography - first from John Grant's Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality in 1662 London. Demography, as a science, came from a cloth merchant examining public
health. The name was a combination of two Greek words, translating to "description of the people" graphic-chart-people.jpg
combined and published by a Belgian statistician Achille Guillard, in Elements of Human Statistics or Comparative Demography in 1855.I'm a sociologist - specifically a rural sociologist - but demography isn't restricted to sociology.  It has roots in public health and medicine, in economics, in geography, biology, statistics - and I could stretch the list.  Personally, I'm always amazed at how my early years, working the mathematics of hydrology and irrigation come back to support working the mathematics and statistics of demography.  My science is strongly interdisciplinary.  While demography may be a specialty, it's a specialty that rests on a diverse scientific structure.

 

Both texts stress that we live in a world with around 7 billion other people - but when Grant started  

studying mlibrary.jpgortality and epidemics, the world population was around 600 million  

people.  Weeks figured that, at the rate of increase that was occurring then, the population could have been expected to double in 338 years.  Real World 101 tells us we reached 1.2 billion around 1850 - not in 2000.   It is hard to divorce demography from agriculture - for it was the development of agriculture that allowed our species to develop the population needed to support the occasional demographer.  

   

Most of the time, I've been recommending links to information.  This time, I'd like to recommend Weeks' text Population: an introduction to concepts and issues and Rowland's Demographic methods and concepts.  One of the nice things about the internet is that used books are available and affordable - and you don't need to buy the newest edition to get a great reference book.  We might not need the university library for data - but the text is still handy to have.

 Mike McCurry, Ph.D.

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Migration Map and Margins of Error

Governing has developed a state level migration map (http://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/2010-census-state-migration-statistics.html) that lets you click on a state and see the numbers of inmigrants, outmigrants and net migration flow.  It's based upon American Community Survey data - so while the map is intuitive and easy to use, the numbers have a fairly high margin of error in small states like South Dakota.  For example, if you click on South Dakota, you'll see that our state lost 1,877 people - but in 2011, the chart shows 1,657 South Dakotans moved to Arizona . . . plus or minus 1,589.  That translates to "somewhere between 68 and 3,276 South Dakotans moved to Arizona."  The map is handy and nice - but it's more useful for giving the margins of error, and showing why we need to dig deeper into data, than it is for providing reliable data.

 Mike McCurry, Ph.D. 

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New Statistics and Data Search Engine  

 

One emphasis in academia is publishing in peer-reviewed journals.  It's a scientific act of faith - because we believe, we prefer peer-reviewed journals.  As an academic, I'm more akin to what the Navy would call a "mustang" - I didn't come into the ranks the normal way.  I started in community colleges and then moved to Extension - leaving me forever tainted with a preference for "outreach" publication.  Somehow, it seems just as constructive to get the right paragraph in front of several thousand readers.  On the other hand, I do like reading the journals to see what is going on.Daktronics Computer Lab

It's been a lucky time to be South Dakota's State Demographer - as the Internet has brought access to demographic information to everyone.  I've been able to set demography as outreach, and write for everyone's science.  Today, I encountered a new search engine -Zanran.  It's a search engine for data and statistics, and it looks useful.  It finds databases I didn't know existed.  So I'm sharing a research database that can help everyone find data and statistics: http://www.zanran.com/q/  Give it a shot - we can get the data from outside the University library - but remember to check your sources twice.  We really are in a time when everyone can be a demographer.

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.
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Highest Police Deaths 
Governing (http://www.governing.com/gov-data/law-enforcement-fatality-rates-by-state.html) compiled a ranking of police officer death rates, by state, for 2008 - 2012.  I noticed on the map that South Dakota showed up pretty dark (as did Montana) so I went to the table to check.  Much to my amazement, South Dakota led the nation - with an average 11.5 deaths annually for every 50,000 police officers.  That gave me a clue - if we had 50,000 police officers, one out of every sixteen South Dakotans would be in law enforcement.  It turns out that we had three deaths in 2011 (the study includes corrections officers) and one in 2009.  Montana was just behind us with a 10.8 rate, and averaged one death per year.  Below the table, it states "There are less than 5,000 police and corrections employees working statewide in South Dakota, Montana, North Dakota and Maine, so relatively few deaths in these states can have a significant effect on per capita rates."

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.

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Paper: Can America afford to support                                      Aging Workforce
future generations in their retirement?                                                                                   

 

Ken Darga, Michigan's State Demographer has written a dozen pages on "Trends in Age Distribution and Support Ratios: Can America Afford to Support Future Generations in their Retirement?"

 

He thinks the answer is yes, assuming that the U.S. returns to pre-recession employment rates by age and sex, finding that the ratio of workers to non-workers should actually be about the same in 2030 and 2060 as it was in 2010.  If productivity continues to improve, the workforce of 2030 or 2060 should be able to support dependent generations better than the recession-encumbered workforce of 2010.

 

You will find the paper at:

www.michigan.gov/documents/cgi/Age_Distribution_and_Dependency_Ratios_13-1021_437869_7.pdf

 

His charts and graphs are well worth the time it takes to read the paper.

Governing (http://www.governing.com/news/headlines/states-where-workers-are-employed-longest.html) has an article about old people who are still in the work force.   It's kind of interesting.  A single quote and table may describe the article well enough to interest you: "States where older workers account for the largest share of the total workforce tend to mirror broader population demographics. Workers age 55 and older made up the largest share of the total workforce in the following states last year:"
  1. Montana: 27.6%
  2. Maine: 26.5%
  3. Vermont: 26.1%
  4. South Dakota: 25.2%
  5. West Virginia: 24.9%
  6. Hawaii: 24.7%
  7. New Hampshire: 24.4%
  8. Wyoming: 23.7%
  9. Kansas: 23.6%
  10. Florida: 23.5%

As you'll note, over a quarter of South Dakota's work force is over 55.

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.

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Students Stack Up Globally students-stone-building.jpg

The National Assessment on Educational Progress has released "U.S. States in a Global Context: Results From the 2011 NAEP-TIMSS Linking Study"  

(http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/subject/publications/studies/pdf/2013460.pdf).  For folks like me, who have listened to tales of how badly American children are doing scholastically, it's an american-flag-building.jpguplifting read.  Only one state - Massachusetts - reached the high benchmark in mathematics, and five foreign educational systems did -  Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore.  South Dakota scored 22nd in the US - and two more national systems beat our kids - the Russian Federation and Quebec, Canada. There's a lot more in the 42 pages - and it shows where improvement is needed.

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.

  

understanding underemployment

 

New Geography has an article titled  "Underemployment in America."  For folks who have wondered how the numbers for underemployment are calculated, it's an interesting article.  For people who want reassured that we're doing pretty well in South Dakota - well, we're number 2 - right between number 1 North Dakota and Number 3 Nebraska.

 

The article explains "The difference between underemployment and unemployment comes by adding two groups: marginally attached workers and workers on part-time schedules for economic reasons. According to BLS, marginally attached workers are not counted as unemployed because they have not looked for work within the last four weeks, but they have sought work within the last year and are available for employment."

 

To read the whole thing, click on  http://www.newgeography.com/content/004016-underemployment-america?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feedutm_campaign=Feed%3A+Newgeography+%28Newgeography.com+-+Economic%2C+demographic%2C+and+political+commentary+about+places%29 

 

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.

  
Attention
All
Students!
If you want some "hands on experience" working with demographic data, we have just the opportunity for you! This Spring Semester the Data Center is offering an Internship for students to help collect, compile and analyze data. Excited? Be sure to sign up for Soc 494 S02 (Internship listed with Dr. McCurry) when enrolling for classes. Enhance your resume, get practical experience, work with a fun group of demographers and get college credit for it!

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Demography Blog at The Other SDSU

One of my favorite blogs on demography is written by John Weeks - http://weekspopulation.blogspot.com/ - a highly regarded, highly skilled demographer at the "other" SDSU . . . San Diego State University.  His text,  Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues is one of the real classics in demography.  Give them a click - he's worth reading.
Mike McCurry, Ph.D.
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What About Marriage ? 

 

Some of the difficult questions we get in the Data Center are about marriage.  The problem isn't that we don't have any data on marriage - it's that we don't always have the answers to the questions people ask.  It's kind of nice to be able to refer folks to "Marriage: More Than a Century of Change" by Julissa Cruz, at the National Center for Family & Marriage Research.  http://ncfmr.bgsu.edu/pdf/family_profiles/file131529.pdf

It's a short publication - just two pages - but it has some great statistics.  For example, the marriage rate is the lowest on record - just 31 women for every thousand unmarried women from 15 on up are getting married each year.  Back in 1950 it was 90.  Today, women with at least a bachelors degree have the highest probability of being married - 60 percent.  Women who didn't finish high school are also less likely to be married - 28 percent. 

If you're interested in marriage statistics over the last century, click the link - I'm really glad someone else answered the questions.  

Mike McCurry, Ph.D.
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SAVE THE DATES

2014 Demography  

Conference  

 

Tues-Thursday,  

June 10-12, 2014.  

 

(On the campus of South Dakota  

State University).


Prekchya 

Singh 


Eric 

Guthrie   

 

 

 

 

Data Center Staff 


J.L.   
Jackson

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South Dakota State Data Center Affiliates
mt_rushmore.jpg

Black Hills Council of Local  

Governments

 

Black Hills Knowledge Network

 

Central South Dakota Enhancement  

District

 

First District Association of  

Local Governments

 

Governor's Office of Economic  

Development

 

Karl E Mundt Library

 

Labor Market Information Center

 

Northeast Council of Governments

Northern State University

 

Planning & Development  

District III

 

Rural Life Census Data Center

 

Sioux Falls Planning Department

 

South Dakota Department  

of Health

 

South Dakota Kids Count

 

South Dakota State Data Center

 

South Dakota State Library

 

Southeast Council of Governments

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Mike's Favorite Websites:

 

 

ACS Profiles (Missouri)

http://mcdc1.missouri.edu/acsprofiles/acsprofilemenu.html

 

Agriculture

http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/

 

American FactFinder

http://factfinder2.census.gov/

 

Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea.gov/regional/bearfacts/

 

Center for Disease Control

http://www.cdc.gov/

 

County Level Data

http://censtats.census.gov/usa/usa.shtml

 

County Business Patterns

http://www.census.gov/econ/cbp/index.html

 

Crime

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr

 

Health Stats

http://www.statehealthfacts.org/

 

Historical Census Browser

http://mapserver.lib.virginia.edu/

 

Life Expectancy

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/

     

Migration

http://interactive.taxfoundation.org/migration/

 

Missouri State Data Center

http://mcdc.missouri.edu/

 

Mortality (CDC)

http://wonder.cdc.gov/cmf-icd10-archive2005.html

 

Onthemap

http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

 

SD Labor

http://dlr.sd.gov/lmic/default.aspx

 

Statistical Abstracts

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/

 

    

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