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NeuroShell Trader

 

ChaosHunter

 

Ward Systems

 

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February 12, 2015
Dear Ward Systems Group Product Owner:

Here's the latest from Ward Systems Group.
ChaosHunter and Prediction Models in NeuroShell TraderCombo
by Marge Sherald, CEO
Volatility is once again a factor in the markets. To increase your probability of success during these turbulent times, we suggest that you merge your best models in order to shift the odds in your favor.  

In this example we begin with three profitable models for the stock Deere (DE), which is known around the world for its brightly painted green tractors.  In the NeuroShell Trader chart below, you'll note a series of cyclical up and down price movements that lend themselves to model building.    

This NeuroShell Trader chart combines three different models into a single trading system that increases profits compared to the individual models.

We built the first model in ChaosHunter, our stand-alone software tool designed to produce readable formulas to model numeric data. We exported the price data from NeuroShell Trader and saved it as a text file for use in ChaosHunter.

We loaded the ChaosHunter built-in template for daily trading models so we didn't have to worry about the correct model settings in ChaosHunter.  ChaosHunter used genetic algorithm optimization to fuse a selection of model inputs and functions into a formula that is compared to a threshold value to make buy/sell decisions.  In this example, ChaosHunter discovered a formula that generates profitable long and short trading signals in both the training data and the out-of-sample period.  Once we saved the model in ChaosHunter, we used the built-in indicator in NeuroShell Trader to insert the ChaosHunter trading signals into trading rules in the chart.

Next we used NeuroShell Trader's prediction wizard to create a simple prediction with only three inputs (Average Directional Movement, Stochastic #K, and Williams %R).  We set the maximum number of hidden neurons to four so the model wouldn't overfit the training data.  The Price Momentum model again showed trading signals that hit peaks and valleys in both sets of price data.

We created a second prediction in NeuroShell Trader using the momentum/acceleration template included in the Prediction Wizard. Once again the trading signals for both data sets were favorable.  

Next we combined all three models to increase the probability of generating correct trading signals. (Visit www.ward.net  in the Tips and Techniques section and look for Ensemble Estimators for mathematical proof.)  We set up the Long Entry and Short Entry rules to buy if 2 of the 3 models were producing a trading signal.  The results for all of the models are displayed in the chart above.  You'll notice that the green equity curve for the combo model exceeded the individual models in general.  This is not always the case when you combine models.  

Overall we believe that using combo models might be a technique you want to explore to bring more stability to your trading during these volatile times.
VersionsNeuroShell Trader Network Versions
by Marge Sherald, CEO
So you own NeuroShell Trader and you've discovered that you can easily build and test trading models.  That's a blessing and a curse as they say because ideas begin to flow and you want to test them out immediately.  Since you're not bogged down in writing code for each system you want to test, your ideas are piling up faster than your computer can handle them.  What to do?

If you own either the NeuroShell Trader Power User version or the NeuroShell DayTrader Power User version, your solution might be to put more computers on the job.  The NeuroShell Trader Network Versions allow you to do just that.  The Network Versions allow your computer to distribute the optimization processing of complex financial models over your local area network. The result is a significant decrease in the amount of time it takes to create and update trading models as market conditions change.  (We often use the Network Versions to generate models for this newsletter when the deadline is approaching!)

The Network Versions are not the same as buying more copies of the NeuroShell Trader software itself.  The Network Versions are clients that take over some of the processing tasks from the "master" or server computer which is running the NeuroShell Trader program.  

When you install the Network Versions, any computer can become the master computer and the other computers on your local area network can serve as clients.  However, there can only be one master computer running the NeuroShell Trader user interface at a time.

Three Different Network Versions

There are three different network versions to choose from depending on the power and speed you require. For example, the NeuroShell Trader Home Network Version can distribute optimization processing to up to three computers on your network (and even to multiple cores/threads on each of those computers). The three computers include the server computer where you are running NeuroShell Trader and two additional computers that act as clients to the server computer.  The cost of the Home Network version is $995, but is on sale for $746 until February 20.

 

The NeuroShell Trader Office Network Version can distribute optimization processing across ten different computers and to the multiple cores/threads on each of those computers.  The regular cost of the Office Network Version is $2995, but is on sale for $2246.

 

The NeuroShell Trader Corporate Network Version ramps up the power to a max of 25 computers. The regular cost of the Corporate Network is $7495, however the sale price is $5621.  


 

Sale ends February 20, 2015

Click here to order!


 
Special Newsletter OfferSale
Save 25% on purchases of ChaosHunter, ChaosHunter Trader, and NeuroShell Trader, including upgrades
Have questions? Give us a call at 301 662 7950 or send E-mail to sales@wardsystems.com.

Sale ends on Friday, February 20, 2015 at midnight.  All times are eastern standard time.  
 
Ward Systems Group, Inc | 5 Hillcrest Drive | Frederick, MD 21703
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