Relative-Value strategies have worked very well for us so I thought I would share our own spin on the topic and I am sure it will get the creative juices flowing. The idea is embarrassingly simple, and yet so effective; the relationship between two assets may be more appropriate than the assets taken individually.
Let's give an illustration. Say we derive a value for Google, Inc. (GOOGL) against Apple, Inc. (AAPL). Their relationship can be expressed in the form of a linear combination:
GOOGL = Beta x AAPL + Residual
Beta measures the volatility for GOOGL in relation to AAPL - it gives a sense of the stock's risk compared to AAPL or the level of risk GOOGL possesses that depends on how correlated it is with AAPL. In contrast, the Residual is the part that cannot be explained by Beta or the amount of risk GOOGL possesses that is not correlated with AAPL.
For those of us who think in terms of equity curves, we can now adjust our exposure to Beta, effectively exposing ourselves more to the portion of the returns based on the stock specific profile. We can now safely make a bet on a security without betting on the direction of the market.
NeuroShell makes it very easy to implement; by simply applying the Adaptive mixture AME to the LinXYReg Slope indicator, we optimize the level of Beta-exposure for maximum returns. As long as the exposure to Beta is under control, the strategy should not lose its effectiveness because of a change in market regime.
Shameless self-promotion: click to see how the Relative-Value strategy has been doing.
We are currently offering a 20% discount on AME until October 15, 2014. To take advantage of this deal, visit www.noxapredict.com
Happy trading!
Philippe Lonjoux
Noxa Analytics, Inc
p.lonjoux@noxapredict.com