BAGAKOAA; March 22, 2013 So Many Books So Little Time 

Post 802

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March/2013

Jack had a field day today so despite it being his day off, I got him off to school and headed back in time to grab a coffee and a breakfast burrito. (Crap, I just realized it had chorizo and it's Friday in Lent. Thank God for Rosary App!)

 

As I drove upon the grounds (whoa really pretentious, huh?) I ran into my lovely wife headed to feed our long legged dependents at the stable and then she would be off to Physical Therapy. (Craig, do you ever get sick of seeing her?) But I Digress.

 

That gave me a good hour and half to do something I want to do. Of course there were painters still in the house and I was awaiting the Audio Visions guys to continue working on the lights and now trouble fix Jack's room.

 

The reason jack has been so despondent was his wifi had crashed in his room so he was without Xbox connectivity and very slow loading web pages. I called the technician early this morning explaining the emergency.

 

I told Eric, the lead tech that if they did not get his Cat 5 and wifi operative by 4:30 today we would be forced to talk to the child all weekend. I just am not up to it. Come on, conversing with your teenage son, no way.

 

So after that call was made I walked into our kitchen family room area and the voices started.

 

The dishes were screaming, "Clean me and put me away!" The jackets were yelling, "Hang me up, hang me up!". Everywhere I looked there were voices trying desperately to get my attention. I told them all to shut up, which kind of took Conrad our painter off guard a bit.

 

Then I did the most logical thing. I went to go check on Antonio. He was fixing several of the 328 sprinklers on the property. (Just a guess Butch. Butch and Deb will be visiting next week and he is liable to count them.) After a brief discussion with him about easier ways to pick up pruning trimmings (He smiled) we talked about fixing up our wood chipper. I didn't even know we had a wood chipper. I suggested that he and Dennis see if it works and finish chopping off Dennis hand. Just kidding, we could use the chopper to grind up the stack of vines we trimmed.

 

I was reading last night that if I take the recently cut vines and soak them in water for a while and then distill the water it makes a grape wood grain alcohol. Way cool. I could become a Coto Moonshiner.

 

I see a whole new reality TV show. I'll get a set of cut too short shorts for Devin and Jerene, a muscle car for Dennis (wait, he has one already), I could learn to ride my Harley and loose a few teeth (could do that by having my next door neighbor, Teemu Selanne, Anaheim Duck Hockey Player, take me out for a practice or two) then we could make a TV show.

 

Speaking of reading, I eventually decided that I should get back to the house and do something to contribute to the moving process. Last week Dennis and I were proud to have emptied 15 boxes of books for the office.

 

We were high fivin and doing victory dances. (Yeah, Dennis and I doing victory dances. It looked as scary as it sounded.) As we celebrated, The Terminator of Fun entered the room. Devin asked "What are you guys so happy about?" I knew she was prepared to find fun and stamp it out, but I had her this time.

 

I proudly declared, "Dear, we have finished the multitude of book boxes for the office." But I forgot she had decades of experience smelling out fun and knowing exactly how to dismember it. She coyly replied, "Come here dear." I followed her into the kitchen great room area where she pointed to 18 more boxes of books.

 

It was at that moment I asked myself, "Self, with all these books shouldn't I be smarter?" So this morning I did what any red blooded lazy male would do, I moved the boxes to a closet where we will never see them again.

 

 

 

Give Me a K

 

You have heard me speak of Karma in the blog. Devin recently found the quaintest little corner for one of our Budha's.

 

 

We wrapped up the night by attending Happy Hour at the Coto De Caza club, hosted by Mike and Linda Ameel. We enjoyed fine dining at the club for the first time in 5 years since we joined. It was a splendid night. Thank you Mike and Linda.


The Endless Summer Rally

 

There seems to be no end to this rally. The last leg of the rally began on March 5 (Green Flag). It began in April 2009. Positive earnings reports and relatively positive economic news keep inching the indices higher to newer records.

 

In the last few weeks, mom and pop investors are getting into the market again. Please remember my casino analogy.  

 

You have the Board of Directors of the casino (The Fed and the Treasury), you got the casino managers and pit bosses (hedge fund and mutual fund managers) and then you have the blind folded monkeys playing all the games (That would be you and I).

 

The BOD has loosened the flow of money allowing for attractive ways for Pit Bosses and Casino Managers to position games and set odds and now we have more blind folded monkeys driving and flying to Las Vegas (The equity market) and the good times are rolling.

 

So how does a blind folded monkey make money in the casino?

 

I have said it a thousand times (Ok I know we only have 803 posts on the blog but we have said it a lot.) Do your homework. Spend as much time understanding the game of investing as you do the details behind Josh Hamilton's move from Texas to Anaheim, or why Paul Jolley choked doing Elanor Rigby, or is this really love for Lindsay and Avi?

 

The internet makes homework so easy. If you read this blog or any investment news, since Dec 27th , against a really squishy backdrop of mixed news, you know that corporate earnings seem to be driving this leg of this rally. Don't fight it. It's a green flag.

 

We are at the end of the reporting season for 3rd and fourth quarter earnings. Alcoa kicks off a new quarter in a couple of weeks. So let's see who is reporting in the next couple of weeks.

 

Next Monday, APOL Apollo Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides online and on-campus educational programs and services at the undergraduate, master's, and doctoral levels, reports earnings. I dare you to find a positive read on this equity. It is a solid company with a string of bad press and some bad stories to tell. It will be very surprising if they beat the 18 cents a share income everyone is expecting.

 

The stock is down from about 38 a year ago to 16 a share. This report could suck another 5-10% out of the stock. The play would be to buy a PUT or sell the stock short if your trading account is set up to do so.

 

This kind of homework is like lifting the blindfold just enough to know what game you are playing in the casino. There is a lot more homework you can do on APOL but I won't bore you with recent legals challenges as well as academic validity studies or a major short player who took a strong short position, but with a little reading that homework is there for you.

 

WE DO NOT OWN AND DO NOT HAVE A CURRENT POSITION IN APOL.

 

If you don't want pick a stock, sometimes it is safe, especially in a rally to pick a good sector. If you pick a good sector, you can choose an ETF. An ETF is kinda like a mutual fund without all the excessive fees and SEC regulations. You can check out any ETF on Morningstar, just like a MF.

 

One we just got a heads up on was XLK State Street Global Advisor Select Sector. It has many of our Core holdings like AAPL, IBM, GOOG, MSFT, INTC, plus a few we do not own like T, VZ, ORCL, QCOM, and CSCO to name a few.

 

Please check it out at Morningstar, to see if it makes sense for you. I know a lot of folk who will be reading the stats from the NCAA Duke Albany game today, but it won't make them a dime towards the management for their money. The same time and effort understanding why AAPL may be a good buy at $450 a share goes a long way towards keeping those Casino Managers and Pit Bosses on their toes.


Salve Lucrum
Brian Ireland
 
 
  
Since 3/4/2013
Y to R 2/25/2013
G to Y 2/21/2013
Y to G 12/31/2012
G to Y 12/27/2012
BAGAKOAA;

I am not a professional investment adviser. Anybody reading my blog and investing accordingly must be out of their minds. I have made more money than I have lost. Except for a nasty VXX trade is 2012.   There are many more qualified people than I to actually tell you how to invest your money.

 

BAGAKOAA=Boys And Girls And Kids Of All Ages

 

Salve Lucrum=Latin for Hurrah for Profit.

 

Brian's estimate :

2013 Year Ending

Dow 14,361

S&P 500

1,610

 

2012 Year Ending

Dow 13,073

Actual 13,104

S&P 500 1,358

Actual 1,426

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hannas